Category: WORLD POWER RELATIONSHIPS

ANALYSIS BY EMOTION

On By Patrick ArmstrongIn ACCUSATIONS, PROPAGANDA, LIES AND NONSENSE, WAR ON RUSSIA, WORLD POWER RELATIONSHIPS

A couple of years ago I had lunch with a former colleague. We had worked together for several decades and I had always regarded him as a very good analyst. He was able to find evidence, evaluate it and put together a competently argued thesis to explain or describe objective reality. As I have said before I, and he, were not formally in an intelligence unit but our work was similar: trying to figure out what’s going on in Country X.

So we’re talking away and I make the comment that some of what Russia is doing in Ukraine reminds me of the tactics used by Brusilov in 1916. (see my piece here). Immediately came an outburst – Russia is a shithole country, Bucha, unprovoked invasion, Bucha, shithole. Quite passionate and sounding almost as if he had rehearsed it and was just waiting for the cue to unload.

Now a real analyst would have responded by asking what I meant, listening, questioning, contradicting with an argument and so on. At the end of the process we would have got a bit closer to reality. Or, alternatively, just said he didn’t want to talk about it.

Some time ago Paul Robinson observed that there were two approaches to foreign policy operating in the world today. One is a belief in “a traditional, Westphalian, order in which states are equal sovereign entities”. The other is quite different:

By contrast, human rights reasoning has pushed the West in an opposite direction, towards a preference for legal asymmetry. In this model, the just and the unjust, those who respect and those who don’t respect human rights, are not legally or morally equal.

A very perceptive observation, in my opinion, and I wrote my own essay on why I thought Russia took a “Westphalian” view of things. My argument, in essence, was that Moscow had spent seven decades pushing an exceptionalist/moralist view – the world’s first socialist state, the bright future of mankind and all that stuff – and had found it to be a complete failure. It had learned the hard way that countries are as they are and have to be dealt with as they are. Moralistic posturing leads to failure.

Readers of this site will no doubt have concluded that I come down on the “Westphalian” side of the argument. You may not like your neighbours but they won’t disappear if you shut your eyes and disdain them. You may feel smug for a while but, when you open your eyes again, nothing will have changed. To deal with them, you have to try to understand them; try and see the world from their point of view. A veil of moral superiority obstructs a clear view.

But getting back to my colleague’s response, what do we see here but feelings substituted for reason? Don’t bother to make the effort to try to understand how Moscow sees things, just say it’s a shithole country. Judgement and condemnation supplant thinking and understanding.

The essence of intelligence is the attempt to see the other guy’s point of view. How does he see things? What’s he trying to do? What threats does he see? What is he able to do about it? That’s the whole point of intelligence, analysis, international relations, diplomacy and all that sort of thing. It’s difficult and you’ll never entirely get it right but you must keep your moral judgements to yourself and try and see reality. And that’s what disappointed me about his rant: I thought he was better than that. He just sounded like some think wank “expert” on TV saying we’re great and they suck. Moralism is easy, analysis is hard.

The first problem with the moralistic worldview is that one soon becomes very restricted on whom one can talk with. After all, the Good cannot acknowledge the Bad. Especially after all the carefully constructed war words have been deployed: the “regime’s” “claims” are “unverified”, they’re “disinformation” spread by “state media; they’re “talking points” from the “playbook”. The Good, The Just, by contrast, have democratic governments, speak the truth and have a free media. The more the Good stresses the evil of the other, the less it can know or understand. And certainly can never pollute its purity by meeting with The Bad. Here’s the essence of Robinson’s legal asymmetry expressed by one of its chief practitioners: Putin’s a monster, “there you go” “Russian talking points” and NATO is defensive. What more do you need to say or think?

When moral superiority becomes entrenched, other superiorities soon take root. We’re morally better and everything we do is better too. Evil fails across the board, in war and in peace. Our tools work better and we use them better. The morally inferior are worse at war too. And so we come, to quote a certain Austrian watercolourist, to the expectation that “one good kick at the door and the whole rotten edifice will collapse”. But the USSR did not collapse in 1941 and neither did Iran in 2026.

And there are so many wars because there is so much evil that cannot – ought not – be reasoned with and certainly not left alone. And so NATO, that alliance of the morally superior, had to intervene in the Balkans, Somalia, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine. War all the time and everywhere.

Essentially, NATO not only helps to defend the territory of its members, but also engages – where possible and when necessary – to project its values further afield, prevent and manage crises, stabilise post-conflict situations, and support reconstruction

Interesting how often this “projection of values” involves bombing isn’t it? Here’s a picture of NATO’s values projected into Raqqa.

The moralistic view is disastrous for its practitioners (to say nothing of thousands and thousands of the recipients). The moralists never see reality – how can they when it’s so evil!? They underestimate the opponent and over estimate themselves.

It’s hard to see reality, but reality has teeth that eventually bite. (Vide Washington and Iran at the moment.)

Moralism is fatal for intelligent decision making and it absolutely blocks the real purpose of intelligence. But I fear that moralism has taken over in the West and all “analysts” today have to agree with Nuland that Putin is a monster. Anyone who swims against the tide is a “Putin apologist” (which I have been called) and therefore at least a little bit monstrous too.

No wonder all of NATO’s wars have been defeats.

(And a good thing I retired 16 years ago.)

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And then we suddenly discover that the “talking points” from the “monster’s” “playbook” were the truth. Here’s RFE trying to put the spin on the fact that the US was conducting gain of function experiments with really dangerous compounds all over the world. Read it and then take a look at the actual declassified evidence.

WEF 2026

On By Patrick ArmstrongIn POLITICS AND POWER, THE WORLD IS CHANGING, WORLD POWER RELATIONSHIPS

Instead of the usual smugfest we had a number of speakers – not just the Americans – say that the WEF-view was a bust.

In this regard I suggest this written eight years ago

WHY MOSCOW’S FOREIGN PHILOSOPHY IS “WESTPHALIAN”

The “Westphalian system” was a brutally taught lesson. Maybe a series of unbroken failure, capped by more brutal wars, has set the triumphalists, the exceptionalists, normally autobasting in the sauce of righteousness at Davos, on the long painful path of re-learning it.

Cuius regio, eius religio. Not just religion, of course.

PS China was also an exceptionalist power in its day. It, like Russia, has learned the hard way. There’s no profit, no benefit in being the Arbiter of Morality. Only ruin at the end.

TRUMPERY: MAKING SOMETHING OUT OF HOT AIR AND PRESTIDIGITATION.

On By Patrick ArmstrongIn THE WORLD IS CHANGING, TRUMP MYSTERY, WORLD POWER RELATIONSHIPS

My goodness! Trump’s done it again. From a mess of bloviation, trash talking, boasting, theatrical productions, deception and deflection, empty gestures and gas, he’s made something. The Israel-Iran war is apparently stopping (for now). And, part of the deal is that we are all supposed to agree that Iran’s nuclear program has been obliterated so we must all stop talking about it. (Interesting to see how that bit of mental gymnastics is handled.)

Some people whose analysis I respect (notably “Armchair Warlord” and “Simplicius”) suspected a theatrical production from the start (did any B2s even fly there?) and I was reminded of other wonderful, spectacular, powerful nothingburgers from Trump.1. For example in 2017 the loud and completely ineffective strike on Syria with a reprise the next year. Inconsistent inconsistencies I called them. The American strike was matched by Tehran’s equally theatrical production today: advance warning, loud bangs, victory claims and not much else. (But from Tehran’s perspective some more Patriot missiles used up: how many are left in the locker do you suppose? 600 to be produced this year they say but they keep needing more and more in Ukraine and there’s a lot to be replaced in Israel.)

So, what have we learned?

  • Iran is a lot more powerful than many people thought.
  • Western air defence systems aren’t very effective.
  • Who knew those little Iranian lawnmower-engined dorito drones could get all the way to Israel?
  • Hypersonic missiles are invulnerable and very frightening.
  • Tehran now knows which missiles in its arsenal are most effective and which most effectively soak up the enemy’s air defence and will build accordingly
  • Tehran’s decision to follow the missile-based armament route is vindicated. Suvorov: “Fight the enemy with the weapons he lacks“; Sun Tsu: “avoid strength and strike weakness“. `Others will notice.
  • Israel has used up the sleeper cells and intelligence penetration that it had built up in Iran.

Questions for the future

  • Has Tehran learned that the Kims were right all along?
  • Israel was supposed to be the place where Jews were safe; how many feel that way now?
  • Has Israel learned anything? Its wars have been rather offstage since 1973; the people are not used to seeing collapsed buildings in their neighbourhoods.
  • Is this the end of Netanyahu?
  • Do you think NATO is more cohesive or less cohesive after this 12-day rollercoaster ride in which every time they dutifully snapped to attention, they had to salute something different?

My predictions.

  • The damage in Israel will be much greater and much more effective than we have been told.
  • In Iran, not so much.

One final observation.

For 500 years, the West has been confident that all the best, the most powerful, the most sophisticated weapons have been in its arsenal. That hasn’t been true for some time and now the world has seen so. I was fascinated that Israel would show these photos of F14s it had destroyed as if it had accomplished something. Manned aircraft? That’s so yesterday.

AN IDIOT’S GUIDE TO WAR

On By Patrick ArmstrongIn NATO, THE WORLD IS CHANGING, UKRAINE, WORLD POWER RELATIONSHIPS

There’s a longstanding apothegm about war that says that amateurs talk tactics but professionals talk logistics. To this I would add that beginners talk weapons (remember Saint Javelin, M777s, Leopard tanks, F-16s? Seen a lot of game changer weapons come and go haven’t we?)

Logistics is the really hard part of planning: it is the business of making sure that the fighting end of the effort has all the things that it requires where it needs them when it needs them. The end comes when your guy kicks in the door of the enemy’s leader’s office. Everything else: aircraft carriers, tank armies, artillery, air fleets, medical support, planning is about getting him there. Here’s the photo. If the infantryman at the tip of the spear doesn’t have rations and ammunition he’s useless and will soon be out of the game. Getting these (and many other things) to him is extraordinarily difficult and many popular accounts of wars leave this somewhat boring aspect of the war business out of the story.

But war is a combination of many things all of which have to work together. All are necessary but none is sufficient. It is, I believe, the most complicated thing humans do (and, depressingly, history shows that it’s our favourite outdoor sport.) Saying one part is the most important is plain wrong. War without purpose (grand strategy and strategy) is just killing people and smashing things. Soldiers without training are dead men walking. Tactics without logistical support is just Brownian movement. And so on. Everything has to be planned and coordinated and carried out hampered by what Clausewitz called “friction”; against an enemy who’s doing everything to upset and counter you. Once you’ve planned it all out, you have to start all over again on the fly because “No plan survives contact with the enemy“.

What’s going on in Ukraine is an industrial war which is consuming enormous amounts of ammunition and weapons with tremendous destruction and hundreds of thousands of casualties. NATO is used to flying over a target with no air defence and dropping bombs, or small infantry groups who call in air or artillery when somebody shoots at them. And, in the end, NATO loses the war anyway and goes home. Alex Vershinin got it right at the beginning in June 2022 in The Return of Industrial Warfare.

The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.

And, it should be clear it could be much more: Moscow calls it a “special military operation” and therefore Kiev looks like this; if it were a full-scale war Kiev would look like this.

What do we hear from NATO? More money. Must get to 2% of GDP. That’s not enough, 3% is needed. Maybe 5%. Money.

NATO’s money talk and boasting (remember “taking chips from refrigerators” and “Russia’s industry is in tatters“; Russia is running out of weapons?) has been replaced by some recognition of reality. In January the current NATO GenSek told us “When you look what Russia is producing now in three months, it’s what all of NATO is producing from Los Angeles up to Ankara in a full year“. Russia is four-to-one against the whole enemy coalition.

It’s production, not money. You don’t fight wars by firing bundles of dollars at the enemy. One of the primal errors of Western intelligence was measuring Russia’s economy using the ruble to USD exchange rate. (NATO GenSek still believes it though: “Russia is not bigger than the Netherlands and Belgium combined as an economy“.) In 2017 I wrote Exchange Rating Russia Down and Out which I concluded by saying Russia had a “full service economy”. And, whatever the GenSek may imagine, the World Bank tells us that “the Netherlands and Belgium combined” with its “industry in tatters” has become the fourth-largest economy in the world.

There is nothing that money can do to remedy the four-to-one ratio except with a lot of investment in production over a long time. Thanks to offshoring manufacturing, the Western industrial base mostly has to be built from the ground up. Is that even possible? If you think about it, an apprentice machinist on an assembly line fifty years ago was being taught how to do it by a master machinist who had been taught by a previous master and so on back to the middle of the 1700s when industrial production was invented. Each in the series advanced the technique, of course, but it’s still a chain you could trace back, machinist by machinist, for all that time. If that sequence of teacher-learner-teacher is broken, if the teacher has retired or died leaving no apprentices, how long will it take to get it back? Putting a pallet of engraved paper in the floor of an empty building and hoping it will turn into a pallet of artillery rounds is magic thinking. We know this from history. By winter 1914 it was evident that artillery ammunition consumption far exceeded anybody’s expectations and Britain, a manufacturing giant then, started tooling up. Even so it took a year and a half to manufacture the vast number of artillery rounds for the Somme offensive and about a quarter of them did not explode because the fuses weren’t properly made. How far away is the West from meeting the real demand?

Meanwhile, the EU economy isn’t doing so well and, with a stagnant or shrinking economy, just keeping the same amount of money flowing means that the percentage will have to grow. So the planned 3-4-5-whatever percent GDP increase they’re all calling for may turn out to be just enough to maintain the existing inadequate amount. As the Red Queen told Alice: “Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that!“

The ends of “Last Summer’s Ukraine“, NATO and the EU are visible, don’t you think?

Beginners talk weapons;

Amateurs talk tactics;

Professionals talk logistics;

Idiots talk money.

ANOTHER ONE THAT’S APPROPRIATE

On By Patrick ArmstrongIn THE WORLD IS CHANGING, TRUMP MYSTERY, WAR ON RUSSIA, WORLD POWER RELATIONSHIPS

https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2017/11/23/nato-a-dangerous-paper-tiger/.

And, now that it’s given up about half of its stuff to be blown up in Ukraine, what kind of tiger would you call it now?

Trump 1.0 was advised by the Blob. I think Trump 2.0 is being advised by people better clued in. After all, JD and Tulsi (Presidents 48 and 49?) have been there and done that.

Clocking off after another mind-blowing day and having a drink or two or three. The Trump Team is inside the enemy’s decision loop. Amazing to watch.

EUROPE GETS AN ANATOMY LESSON

On By Patrick ArmstrongIn NATO, POLITICS AND POWER, THE WORLD IS CHANGING, TRUMP MYSTERY, UKRAINE, WORLD POWER RELATIONSHIPS

Well, “Fuck the EU” she said, and here we are.

Vance’s speech was a bombshell. Left them weeping, it did. Gotta say though, if Zelensky is where you find your “values and principals” these days, I think you should look somewhere else. We can only hope that Vance’s lecture has killed this sanctimonious and hypocritical values talk. Or reduced it a bit, anyway.

Many see it as complementary to Putin’s speech in the same forum in 2007, Here it is for comparison. For example: “Incidentally, Russia – we – are constantly being taught about democracy. But for some reason those who teach us do not want to learn themselves” certainly strikes a chord with Vance’s speech. But Putin’s principal theme (quoting FDR) was that security is indivisible. And surely that is the truth that we see in 2025: if one major player feels insecure then, at the end – say, in 18 years — everybody will. And here we are. The light-hearted attempt to destroy the country that “makes nothing” now has the IISS bemoaning the fact that Russia makes more weapons than all of Europe. Europeans, so confident so recently, now give themselves the fantods about Russia invading.

Two days before, the new US Defense Secretary had put in the first punch: Ukraine is now Europe’s problem. Lots of people are commenting on these announcements and the forthcoming negotiations between Moscow and Washington. This is my little addition to the discussion.

But first read my essay from 2018 on how to fix Ukraine because I think we are starting down that road. It will be a long road and there is still more fighting to come. One can hope, though, with the revelation of how short a time “as long as it takes” is, that the wretched Ukrainians pressed into the slaughterhouse will abandon the Galician cause and vote with their feet. (I am trying to train myself to always remember the distinction between Ukrainians and Galicians).

Everyone should recognise that it would have been more honest had Hegseth admitted Washington’s responsibilities starting from coddling Bandera, building up Stetsko, the five billion dollars, the cookies and “Yats is our guy”. OK, I appreciate that a new team is there, that the new team plans to make big and real changes across the board, is very much the opposite of the last Administration, but still Washington has been the principal author of the Ukrainian cataclysm. After all, in its original declaration of independence Kiev wanted to be neutral and, as Nuland said, it took a lot of money to change things. So some admission of Washington’s very (VERY) large role in the catastrophe would have been more sincere than leaving the impression that the Europeans did it themselves. As to de-industrialisation, don’t pretend Washington had nothing to do with blowing up the gas line that powered it; Nordstream wasn’t eaten by a passing shark. At least Vance said “we” when he talked about uncontrolled “refugee” admission. So, altogether, some admission that Europe was following Washington’s lead in many of these errors would have been better.

But the speeches were certainly truth bombs.

What have we learned? Well, something that Moscow learned a long time ago: Washington is not reliable (the complicated Russia word is недоговороспособны which essentially means that you can’t make an agreement with it and even if you do, it won’t keep it). In a word, Washington caused the Ukraine disaster and, now that it’s gone irredeemably bad, is walking away from it and leaving it to Europe. The simple geopolitical truth is that the United States of America lives on an invulnerable island, with weak and friendly neighbours. No outside force can do anything to it except by the mutual suicide of nuclear weapons. It took Moscow a while to learn it but, eventually, all the broken promises taught it that Washington’s word was worthless. So, in the negotiations that start tomorrow, Moscow is not going to take anything for granted and will accept no verbal assertions.

Now Europe has learned this. In the simplest, bluntest and most brutal terms the fact that has just hit it in the face is that USA is over there and Russia is here. The USA can make a mess anywhere and walk away at any time; remember Vietnam? Afghanistan? Well now it’s you.

So Europe, there’re four things you’d better do immediately: 1) figure out what your real interests are; 2) get yourself into a position to defend them; 3) make your peace with Moscow. (A European master of realpolitik told you years ago “The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia“.) And fourth, read and meditate on the joint Russia-Chinese statement of three years ago. Why? Because that’s the future. What to do? – the European Dilemma. But to start on this program you’ll certainly need a different bunch at the top, won’t you? The German elections next week will give us a clue.

What is the Trump team’s idea of a new world? My guess at the moment is that it envisions a future world of three Great Powers each with its own sphere of interest (I would further guess that it sees Europe in the US sphere and not on its own). This is very far from what the Chinese Foreign Minister spoke of at Munich which would be a world of many countries, big and small, rich and poor, all with a voice deserving of a listen and that is the future Moscow envisions also. See the joint statement and bear in mind that both Russia and China were exceptionalist powers before they learned that that’s a dead end. So, if I’m reading these tea leaves aright, there is still much to be worked out between Washington and Moscow-Beijing. The talks that start tomorrow are the first step in a long and painful road. They will require many adjustments by the American side because Washington doesn’t fully understand how much the correlation of forces has changed and I’m not confident that it can. In a week or so we’ll have a better idea.

Interesting times, indeed.

PS Someone the other day referred to me as a Cassandra: a prophet, usually pessimistic, often right but doomed never to be believed. I guess that’s a sort of compliment. Depressing though to have several friends close me out as a “Putin apologist”.

BOUGHT JOURNALISM

On By Patrick ArmstrongIn THE WORLD IS CHANGING, TRUMP MYSTERY, WORLD POWER RELATIONSHIPS

(The title is a homage to the late Udo Ulfkotte whose book Gekaufte-Journalisten described how reporters in Europe were bribed and controlled by the CIA. A conspiracy theory Wikipedia assures us. Bet they’ll be editing that out pretty soon!)

We are told (by Politico, of all things) that DOGE’s attention was drawn to USAID by the suspicion that it was trying to end-run Trump’s freeze on foreign aid spending. DOGE entered the building on 27 January and two weeks later, the name came off and most of its employees were dismissed. A fortuitous choice as it turned out because it uncovered a long, expensive and remarkably varied list of highly suspect expenditures.

What I am concerned with here is this part of USAID’s activities: USAID’s funding of over 6,000 journalists, 1,000 platforms worldwide raises concerns over independence and transparency; USAID: $270 Million for ‘Independent’ Journalists; USAID Funded Massive ‘News’ Platform, Extending ‘Censorship Industrial Complex’ To Billions Worldwide. Reporters Without Borders sums it up (disapprovingly)

President Donald Trump has frozen billions of dollars around the world in aid projects, including over $268 million allocated by Congress to support independent media and the free flow of information. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) denounces this decision, which has plunged NGOs, media outlets, and journalists doing vital work into chaotic uncertainty. […] According to a USAID fact sheet which has since been taken offline, in 2023, the agency funded training and support for 6,200 journalists, assisted 707 non-state news outlets, and supported 279 media-sector civil society organizations dedicated to strengthening independent media. The 2025 foreign aid budget included $268,376,000 allocated by Congress to support “independent media and the free flow of information”.

“Independent” indeed. A quarter of a billion for the year 2025 and similar sums for decades! If any other country were doing this it would be called propaganda, disinformation or shoving their POV down your throat.

Can’t call Ulfkotte a conspiracy theorist after that, can you? USAID was a major producer of what you could call the news that fits. One can wonder how often these planted stories were picked up by truly independent sources, reinforcing the disinformation creators’ convictions, and then fed back into the decision loop in Washington. Could that explain the endless series of catastrophes and failures? Drinking your own bathwater is never a good diet.

A particularly significant consequence of DOGE’s strangling of that fake news factory is felt in Ukraine. The Kyiv Post informs us that USAID Funding Halt Leaves Ukrainian Media Seeking Support and another Ukrainian source tells us 59,2% of journalists predict US international grant suspension to have catastrophic impact – IMI survey. Meanwhile none other than the WaPo (not a recipient as far as we know) tells us Independent media in Russia, Ukraine lose their funding with USAID freeze.” “Independent media”! Bet there was a powerful feedback loop there!

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This is Day 21 of DOGE; imagine what we’ll know on Day 63.

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At least the Soviets were straight-up about their propaganda. Pravda (Truth) said on its masthead that it was the Organ of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. Izvestiya (News) was the “news” of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR. This is what the Party wants you to believe and this what the government wants you to know. In case there’s any doubt who’s in charge, the Constitution tells you that the CPSU is the leading and guiding force in the USSR. No hiding behind sanctimonious mottoes like “Democracy dies in darkness” or “The Most Trusted Name in News”.

THE WORLD IS CHANGING

On By Patrick ArmstrongIn THE WORLD IS CHANGING, WORLD POWER RELATIONSHIPS

About five years ago I wrote this in a Sitrep:

SAUDI ARABIA. The visit of Salman bin Abdulaziz was pretty significant I think. The deal on the petrodollar was that Riyadh would insist on USD for payment in return for protection. Because Washington’s wars in the MENA have only made Iran stronger, Riyadh cannot think the deal is working out and it may be looking for a new sponsor: it happened before when Abdulaziz switched from London to Washington. My thoughts here. I believe that the sale of S-400 air defence systems could be a geopolitical gamechanger. Another of Moscow’s strengths is that it talks to everybody: and so it has offered to mediate between Riyadh and Tehran. Because Washington takes sides, it is useless should Riyadh want to negotiate its way out of messes with its neighbours. “The success of the Euro-Asian triptych is based on the essential principle of transforming enemies into neutral players, neutral players into allies, and further improving relations with allied nations.” Slowly, patiently, bit by bit the long game is played.

So what do we have now? About to join BRICS; diplomatic relations with Iran; Mandarin lessons in schools; Renminbi in oil transactions is coming. Sounds as if history has restarted.

I don’t pretend to know much about the Saud family enterprise, but I’ve always suspected that there’s a council of elders or something like that in the background. If so, I wonder if they looked around and decided that, of all the descendants, MBS was the most like his grandfather.

A remarkable man; I recommend this biography.

And finally, who’s the dominant man in this photo?

RUSSIA UKRAINE 2

On By Patrick ArmstrongIn RUSSIA'S NEIGHBOURS, THE WORLD IS CHANGING, UKRAINE, WORLD POWER RELATIONSHIPS

TACTICS, STRATEGY AND OPERATIONS

So far the Russian military operation in Ukraine has been a reconnaissance in force preceded by the destruction of the supplies and headquarters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces by standoff weapons. The object being to suss out where the Ukrainian forces are, to surround them, to check existing Russian intelligence against reality and, at the same time, destroy known headquarters, air and naval assets, supplies and ammunition depots. And, perhaps, there was the hope that the speed and success (Russian/LDPR forces dominated an area of Ukraine about the size of the United Kingdom in the first week) would force an early end (aka recognition of reality).

At the moment they are readying for the next phase. The long column that so obsessed the “experts” on CNN is the preparation for the next phase. And that is this: “You didn’t get the hint, so now we have to hit you”. The fact that the column has been sitting there indicates that the Russians know they have complete air superiority. Secondly it is a message to the Ukrainian armed forces that it’s over, give up. (And one should never forget that the Russians/Soviets have always been the best at strategic deception, so who knows what’s actually there versus what the images show?)

As far as I can see they’ve created three cauldrons (encirclements). Probably the most important one is the one around Mariupol where the main concentration of Azov, the principal nazi force, is. Another is being established around the main concentration of the Ukrainian Armed Forces facing LDPR. And there appears to be another developing to the east of Kiev. A super cauldron of all three is visible. The nazis will be exterminated; the ordinary Ukrainian soldier will be allowed to go home. The nightmare question is how many ordinary Ukrainians will be free to choose.

The dilemma for the Russians is city fighting. They do not want to have a Raqqa in which every building is destroyed, every person killed and solitudinem is declared to be pax. They know that at the end of the day there will still be Ukrainians and they will want them to be friends: Washington can create solitudes far away, but Moscow cannot create them nearby. This greatly complicates their problem when they try to clear the nazis out of Mariupol knowing that the nazis are using the city’s people as hostages. The same problem exists, to a lesser degree, in the other cities of Novorossiya. My guess is they will surround most cities and hope that Zelinsky & Co come to their senses. But I fear that the Mariupol battle will be horrible.

There are some slight indications, on Day 8, that Ukrainian negotiators are realising that neutrality is something they have to agree to. I also see the realisation creeping up on the American side.

The ultimate Russian aim is not visible. By this I mean the ultimate strategic aim; we know what the grand strategic aim is. Are the Russians planning to create a Novorossiya which will be independent or are they aiming to create a Novorossiya which will be a bargaining chip with rump Ukraine? I think the answer depends on what Zelinsky and Kiev (and the locals) decide. In about a week’s time, an independent Novorossiya will exist and Russia will continue to have the hammer.

I would expect large-scale surrenders of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to begin in the next 24/48 hours (Chechen forces already claim one and have an impressive collection of “trophies” to prove it). A significant proportion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is now surrounded and, as is usual (vide Sun Tsu) the Russians have left them an exit.

GRAND STRATEGY

The impotence of the EU and NATO is clear to everyone (Well, OK, not anyone on CNN, or in the US Congress or in the halls of power in the West. But they are not the whole world). In this respect, I recommend watching Riyadh – Abdul Aziz was very good at seeing how the wind blew and one can assume his descendents are too.

The 97, or whatever they were, fighter planes that were excitedly announced, are obviously not coming. The no fly zone can’t be “declared”. The Chechens have picked up a lot of MANPADs that NATO supplied. All that NATO support will get you is destruction when you fight the war it suckered you into and an extra special Christmas card when you’re defeated and ruined.

We are seeing the collapse of post Cold War triumphalism, “end of history”, “unilateralism” and all the rest of it. Reality is biting, and biting hard. All you have to do is watch CNN’s parade of talking heads and “experts” speculating about how crazy Putin is: they don’t understand, therefore he must be nuts. For the West, as it has been, it’s over. The confusion, the bullshit, the boasting, the hysteria, the bans: the West has nothing left in the locker. Pour Russian vodka down the toilet, fire a singer and director, change the name of a drink or a salad, ban cats or trees, sanction a Russian plutocrat and steal his yacht, wear a blue and yellow t-shirt. Pathetic. And don’t, under any circumstances, allow a Russian outlet to tempt the sheeple with “disinformation”. Just like the USSR but stupider. And who thought stupider was even possible?

Judo is about deception and using the opponent’s strength against him. Putin, the judoka, has judoed the West into suicide. Put your money in our banks, we can confiscate it; put your assets in our territory, we can steal them; use our money and we can cancel it; put your yacht in our harbour, we can pirate it; put your gold in our vault, we can grab it. That is a lesson that will resound around the world. A naked illustration that the “rules-based international order” is simply that we make the rules and order you to obey them. In 2 or 3 weeks everybody in the world who is on the potential Western hit list will have moved his assets out of the reach of the West. Xi will permit himself a small smile.

As to Western sanctions against Russia, I think there’s a very simple answer to that: last week 1000 cubic metres of gas cost $1,000; today it’s over twice that. Next week it certainly won’t be cheaper. Ditto for aluminum, potash, titanium, wheat. Russian airlines lease their planes; now what? Russian rocket motors. What the people in the West do not understand is the ruble is the currency the Russians use inside the country but the price of oil and gas is the Russian currency outside the country. I am astounded at the stupidity: they’re cutting their own throats and destroying their own economies.

Russia sits back and laughs: fly into space on your own broomstick.

The world order has changed. Week Two.