Answer to question from Sputnik. Actually made it this time.
Well, Russia is not going to “invade Ukraine” if for no other reason than it doesn’t want to be stuck with the bill.
But it will smash Ukrainian forces if they invade the LDNR.
Where does this leave Berlin? Would that count as an “invasion”? An issue worth cutting the nose off to spite the face? Cancelling Nord Stream will only cost Russia money — and it has plenty of that — but it will really hurt Germany and US LNG cannot make up the shortfall.
Germany in particular and Europe in general are being forced to face a problem that they don’t want to face. And that is that subservience to Washington will be their ruin.
Russia’s ultimatum has pushed them to this choice.
I know where their best interest lies but I don’t know what they will do — obedience to Washington is hard-wired into Germany’s structures.
Maybe Paris, by returning to de Gaulle’s policy, can get them out of the mess, but that’s two hypotheticals at once.