AFTERMATH. I think the dust is still settling after what has been a power earthquake of some significance and it’s still too early to make pronouncements. But one thing that seems to be happening is a rift between Washington and the EU, at least under Paris’ presidency. Sarkozy reacted quickly and decisively and negotiated the settlement that is actually being put into effect. But then it started to become rather murky: when, for example, did Saakashvili sign the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan? Was it 12 August as the French reported? Or was it on the 15th when Rice visited? Did Washington try to re-write it? And if so, how would Sarkozy feel about such second-guessing from the sidelines? At any case, while Washington is doubling down on its bet on Saakashvili and talking of excluding Russia, France, apart from pro forma references to territorial integrity, is moving in the opposite direction. The French PM was quoted as saying “Russia should play an important role in the world as well as the EU for the sake of the world’s stability, and besides, the more we talk to each other and the more confidence is between us, the closer our economic ties and the more stability and peace on our planet”. Meanwhile – and perhaps this is his answer to Washington – Sarkozy has suggested a “joint economic community” between Europe and Russia. This is quite different from regarding Russia as a pariah state that must be shunned.

FINANCIAL CRISIS. Seems to be dying down, at least for now, with the stock markets and ruble making a recovery.

DUUMVIRATE. I am more and more inclined to think my fifth hypothesis is the winner. In any event, the latest Levada poll shows that Medvedev is becoming almost as popular and trusted as Putin (83% to 88%). I believe that this is the very first time since 1991 when we have seen the President and the PM equal in popularity and both at a high level. So, at last, there are in Russia two centres of constitutional power.

ENERGY SUPPLY. In yet another attempt to try and get the obvious across, Medvedev has said supplies of energy resources should be predictable and stable both for suppliers and consumers. Given that Russia earns so much through oil and gas supplies and the government gets so much of its taxes from this source it would be disastrous for Moscow to cut supplies to its customers to the West. And vice versa. It is, in fact, a mutual dependence between Russia and its customers.

SKINHEADS. A court in Moscow has sentenced a group of skinheads to prison terms varying between 3 and 10 years for numerous crimes, including the murder of the Yakut chess master Sergey Nikolayev last October.

NEWS YOU PROBABLY WON’T HEAR. Russia just moved 40 T-72 tanks out of Kaliningrad, through Lithuania (with the complete, nay enthusiastic, approval of Vilnius) into “mainland” Russia.

SEVASTOPOL. The treaty between Moscow and Kiev has the Russian Black Sea fleet leaving the base in Sevastopol by 2017. A few years ago it was announced that Moscow would begin construction of a base in Novorossiysk but it is very unclear how much, if anything, has been done. The Russian Defence Minister has just said that Moscow is prepared to offer Kiev “lucrative” terms to keep the base there after 2017. Discussions begin today in Kiev.

YAMADAYEV. Ruslan Yamadayev, the brother of Sulim, was assassinated in Moscow. Sulim, who fought against Moscow in the first war and was a most effective hunter-killer of jihadists in the second, is now being accused by Groznyy of a multitude of crimes. I noticed a BMP captured by Chechens from the Georgians last month had “Yamadayevtsy” written on it indicating support for him. Neither event augurs well for peace and quiet in Chechnya.

ABKHAZIA. President Sergey Bagapsh has announced that there will be two Russian basses in Abkhazia: an army base in Gudauta and a naval group at Achamchira. Meanwhile, the first EU observers have arrived in Tbilisi and should take up their posts in Poti soon.

UKRAINE. The “Orange coalition” has now become outright political war with President Yushchenko describing PM Tymoshenko’s actions as “treachery”. She, possibly in connection with the rather large amount of heavy weaponry acquired by Georgia from Ukraine, has called for an inquiry into the arms trade carried by Ukrspetsexport. Meanwhile a recent poll shows that 61.2% of respondents would vote “no” in a referendum on NATO membership and 23.7% “yes”. Nonetheless Washington still pushes for NATO membership for Ukraine.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada

CORRUPTION. A poll this week suggests the size of the problem. About three-quarters of the respondents believe the corruption level in Russia to be “high” or “very high” and that there has been no improvement in the last year or only an insignificant amount. The only encouraging thing from Medvedev’s perspective is that 15% believe corruption in the federal government is high down from 20% in 2006. (The cynic would suggest that the decrease may be more a result of publicity than reality). The most corrupt elements were named by respondents as: traffic police (33%), local government (28%), police in general (26%), society on the whole (23%), medical sphere (16%), education sector (15%), federal government (15%) and judicial branch (15%), big business (13%), military commandant offices (8%), show business (6%), the armed forces (5%), the trade sector (4%), the media (3%), political parties (3%), and parliament (3%). A comprehensive list indeed.

WAR AFTERMATH. Sarkozy and Medvedev worked out a settlement. Sarkozy said he brought a letter “from President Saakashvili with [Georgia’s] commitment to not using force against Abkhazia and South Ossetia”. An EU observer force of at least 200 will patrol the “security zones” in Georgia proper and Russia will withdraw its forces from there (the pullout from western Georgia is already underway). The EU, Medvedev reported, has said that it will “assist in resolving the conflict, including by launching international mechanisms to maintain security around South Ossetia and Abkhazia”. Yesterday Medvedev signed treaties with South Ossetia and Abkhazia that will allow Russian troops to be based there: “We will not allow any new military adventure”, and there are plans to build a gas pipeline from Russia into South Ossetia. The peace settlements of the early 1990s are, of course, dead. Meanwhile Saakashvili continues to make ever wilder accusations: the most outrageous being that the Russians destroyed Tskhinvali. As to his current excuse that the Russians moved first, see JRL2008/170/21. Two accounts of the war: Georgian and Russian; they both provide indications, as I thought, that the Georgians were stopped by the Ossetians and, when the Russian got there, fled.

KHODORKOVSKIY. Lost in last month’s news was the fact that the local court rejected his request for parole.

ECONOMY ETC. Inflation seems to be coming down in the second half of the year as the government hoped: RosStat reports that the cost of the basic food basket declined 3.7% in Aug from Jul and, more recently, that inflation has been 10% since the beginning of the year. The Central Bank, however, expects the year-end rate to be 12%. But the financial crisis is hitting Russia hard with big losses on its stock exchanges; the government remains publicly confident and has just made large short-term loans to some banks. So, all bets are off.

ARCTIC. Turn up the hyperventilation index to eleven.

CARIBBEAN ADVENTURES. Russia will send some naval units, including the Petr Velikiy, to exercise with the Venezuelan Navy. A couple of long-range bombers visited recently. No doubt designed to irritate Washington. But all I can say is: does Moscow really think that Venezuela, Nicaragua and Belarus are very useful allies?

CAUCASIAN RUMOURS OF WARS. In the last two weeks, there have been several fights with “illegal armed groups”, as Moscow calls them, in Dagestan and Ingushetia. The situation is not getting quieter – especially in Ingushetia where the ill fruits of Putin’s decision to push Ruslan Aushev out of the presidency are being harvested.

OPPOSITION IN GEORGIA. Immediately upon the ending of martial law in Georgia on the 4th, the opposition began demanding Saakashvili’ departure. An open letter called for the launch of a public debate; Nino Burjanadze, and many in the opposition, refused to sign his “Charter of Georgian Politicians”; Kakha Kukava said the United Opposition will demand early elections: “We will not allow Saakashvili to continue living in a virtual world and people in a bitter reality”. Former Defence Minister Okruashvili, confirmed as a political refugee in France last week, confirmed there were long-standing invasion plans; said Saakashvili’s “days are numbered”; his party demanded Saakashvili’s immediate resignation as did several others. Even though the news media in Georgia is completely under the control of the government, this level of dissatisfaction cannot be hidden. (Something that got little coverage in the West was the shutdown of Georgia’s last independent TV station in November: last broadcast in Georgian, Russia Today coverage, interview with US manager). I do not see Saakashvili going willingly and the question will likely turn on whether his security apparatus will be as loyal to him as it was a year ago.

© Patrick Armstrong, Ottawa, Canada

GEORGIA. Moscow has announced that all troops introduced on and after the 8th are back in Russia. But the peacekeepers remain, at a strength it is said, of 500 in South Ossetia. They have set up checkpoints south of the South Ossetian border (as well as to the east of the Abkhazia border). Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, in a statement yesterday, insisted that the Medvedev-Sarkozy plan has in it “written in black and white that, before international mechanisms are created, Russian peacekeepers must carry out additional security measures”. Moscow is clearly taking this to mean that its forces can set up check points on the edges of the demilitarised zones (Map for Abkhazia showing restricted weapons zone; for South Ossetia reference (II.A.3)to 14-km band on either side of the border). Thus, pending the arrival of patrollers from elsewhere (Moscow has just said it would welcome an international police presence in the security zone), Moscow argues that it is abiding by the ceasefire agreements of the early 1990s. (Here is Shevardnadze discussing the South Ossetia agreement and its necessity: “Gamsakhurdia decided to invade the region… the Georgians were not ready for war and they were defeated”).

REINFORCING FAILURE. The US Vice President has just doubled Washington’s bet on Saakashvili. I particularly enjoyed his statement: “After your nation won its freedom in the Rose Revolution”. Freedom from what? Shevardnadze in his time was hailed as a brave democrat too, and not that long ago either.

AFTERMATH. The Organisation of Residents of South Ossetia Against Genocide has filed more than 300 lawsuits with the International Court. This website lists the names of 311 South Ossetian citizens killed who have been identified so far. Meanwhile there are credible reports of Georgians being driven out of South Ossetia. The Chairman of Georgia’s parliamentary defence and national security committee has slightly revised the figure he gave a couple of weeks ago to 156 soldiers, 13 police and 69 civilians killed.

AGITPROP. Two films. South Ossetian point of view (“The Wounds of Tskhinvali” – 30 min Russian, English subtitles). Georgian TV “Russian Marauding in Poti” – 4min, Georgian, no subtitles).

RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY PRINCIPLES. On Sunday Medvedev outlined five points of Moscow’s foreign policy. Appeal to international law principles (ie the UN et al); opposition to unilateralism; no desire for isolation; protection of citizens and interests; there are parts of the world where Russian has special interests. All this should be familiar from years of repetition, but no one used to bother to listen. Now they do and, because it all seems new to them, they draw the wrong conclusions.

A REMINDER. On Thursday a Russian ICBM, said to have measures against ABM systems, was launched.

TNK-BP. The long struggle may be over – the principals signed an MOU today.

CHICKEN WARS. PM Putin has announced that 19 US firms will not be allowed to export to Russia; he claimed sanitary grounds saying that the 19 had ignored Russian remonstrations.

MAGOMED YEVLOYEV. Magomed Yevloyev, an opponent of President Zyazikov of Ingushetia. was killed while in police custody on Sunday. The police story is that he was accidentally shot while trying to seize a weapon. The federal Investigative Committee has opened an investigation into his death.

GAS WARS. The low price that Ukraine has been paying for gas since 2006 was the consequence of Turkmenistan’s willingness to sell cheap. But it, the source of about 60% of Ukraine’s gas, is no longer prepared to do so; this has been clear since at least October 2007 and the Achilles heel of the January 2006 deal was always the question of how long it was willing to subsidise Ukrainian customers. It all began to unravel when President Niyazov died about 18 months ago and Berdymukhammedov started slowly reversing his acts. This will, as usual, be painted as another piece of Russian imperialism.

UKRAINE. The two principals of the “Orange Revolution” are again at each other’s throats. Yesterday, saying that PM Tymoshenko was starting a “political and constitutional coup d’état”, President Yushchenko threatened to dissolve parliament and call new elections. Tymoshenko’s party scorned this as “adventuristic lies”. Meanwhile, Yanukovich, head of the largest single party in the parliament, must be smiling. A new poll shows 46% of Ukrainians expecting NATO accession to destabilise the country and only 30% disagreeing with that proposition. But what do Ukrainians know about their own interests?

© Patrick Armstrong, Ottawa, Canada