ELECTION. The Duma election is on Sunday. I haven’t paid much attention to it because I don’t expect anything exciting or different. A poll gives United Russia 41%, Zhirinovskiy’s party 13%, Communists 7%, Just Russia 6% and ten others (there are 75 (!) parties registered) in the weeds. This is believable (the Communists and Zhirinovskiy share a part of the electorate, it goes back and forth and both leaders have been around since 1993). Putin continues wildly popular, his government is pretty effective, the opposition is tired or tainted, so why shouldn’t his – admittedly boring – pedestal party do well? I doubt we’ll see protests – the NGO law has greatly reduced the power of the regime changers. (Yes there is some real opposition to Putin & Co but it’s so contaminated by Western interference it’s impossible to know what’s real. In any case, it’s likely that most opponents think he’s too soft.) I very much look forward to statements from the US, especially Hillary Clinton, that they weren’t “democratic” or “fair”.

CORRUPTION. A fairly big fish caught: an official, with a responsibility for combatting corruption, was arrested when a search found a lot of cash.

MILITARY. A big exercise wraps up in southern Russia. Video: note thermobaric bombs at 1:50. The “‘unsafe’ intercept of US aircraft” doing “routine operations in international airspace” happened during it. The limit is 12 nautical miles or 22.2 kms. The US plane was 40 miles from the coast and its transponder was off. What does Washington say about Russians when they leave Russia? “Highly irregular” and “aggressive, dangerous“, that’s what. And even more outrage when they turn their transponders off.

WADA WARS. “Fancy Bear” hacked WADA and discovered that some athletes have been given a pass on certain proscribed drugs. WADA doesn’t deny but says it was OK because they had prescriptions. Does drug X cease to enhance performance if doctor prescribes it? I think some explanations are needed.

NEW NWO PART 1. This year’s G20 in China was a triumph for Putin but not so much for Obama. Interesting isn’t it? All the nonsense three years ago in Australia, Obama coming up unscheduled to talk to Putin last year and now this. Zbigniew Brzezinski tells us today that the US’s “era of global dominance” is ending. Only two decades ago – a rather short “era” – he assured us the US was supreme in all categories. Said he then: “Potentially, the most dangerous scenario would be a grand coalition of China, Russia, and perhaps Iran… Averting this contingency, however remote it may be, will require a display of U.S. geostrategic skill…”. China-Russia-Iran…. It’s all happening quickly, isn’t it? Newton’s Third Law of Motion in geopolitics.

NEW NWO PART 2. China and Russia have begun a large and rather all-inclusive military exercise in the South China Sea. This (“routine” and “not aimed at anyone” of course) exercise was preceded by Moscow stating its support for Beijing in the Sea.

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. A new victim is admitted to the ward. “What is behind Vladimir Putin’s curious interest in Mount Athos?“. Not much of a mystery: there has been a Russian monastery there for 800 years, Russian governments traditionally supported it, Putin is a believer. But no: must be a “listening post or centre for intelligence gathering” or some other “secret agenda”. But seriously, PDS is neither a joke nor accidental as Robert Parry explains.

SYRIA. After long negotiations and much back and forth, Kerry and Lavrov agreed on a cessation of hostilities and a program. Much is still secret (Lavrov wants it all out there but not Washington) but we are told that Damascus and Ankara are in on it too. Russian troops have positions on the Castello Road. So, some hope, I suppose, but I have noticed before that Kerry will agree to things when he is in the same room as Lavrov but, when in another room with other people, he seems to drift away from the agreement. Washington has to give up its imaginary “moderate rebels” and the “Assad must go” mantra. Does it want to? Can it? I honestly don’t know: who’s running the place anyway?

UKRAINE’S NIGHTMARE. Today’s reading list: Origins of the war in Donbass; Ukraine’s Perpetual War for Perpetual Peace; Why American Right-Wingers Are Going to War in Ukraine (note the drunken shootings into Donbass and the tacit support from the regular army). The hearing of Moscow’s case against Kiev for the US$3 billion loan will be in January. Kiev is not expected to win. The Maidan spirals down some more. But, “there is a great deal of ruin in a nation” and we’re not there yet. And, has Paris had enough of Kiev ignoring the Minsk agreement? Or is this another contumacity to be reined in?

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

OLYMPICS. Sports Minister Mutko says the WADA report was “falsified” and that Moscow would file lawsuits against the “accusers.” High time Russia struck back; it has had some success in the Western court system. The ridiculous YUKOS shareholder judgement was reversed for example. While accusations of “probably” can be thrown around ad libitum, actual courts don’t want to set precedents that may bite them later.

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. Putin’s campaign to become US President is attracting a lot of attention. Here’s another American opinion sector he controls. I think he’s a shoo-in, don’t you? My August collection of PDS will be out tomorrow.

MORE RUSSIAN “THREATS”. Plans to create a coastal defence division in Chukotka have been announced; there were some facilities in the Soviet times in Anadyr. This is the part of Russia that’s next door to Alaska. I look forward to Thinktankistan’s reaction. (The “Putin threat to Alaska” is out there now, but only in a small way: here, here and here.)

PUTIN DOCUMENTARY. Very good. First 20 minutes a reminder of the hopeless mess of 1999.

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. Remember last year when Russia was destabilising Norway by shoving migrants into it? This year we’re told it wasn’t true actually. But never mind, Russian hackers are the new threat. Classic propaganda: keep the lies coming; nobody remembers the details but the bad impression remains.

RUSSIA-SYRIA. Russia’s intervention began 11 months ago. Obama, again displaying the pitiful advice he gets, predicted a “quagmire“. Better he should have listened to “Shellback” and understood “that Moscow confined itself to the things that can be accomplished by violence and stopped when it had done them“. Even a few in Thinktankistan and MSM are starting to get it:: “Russia has been able to reassert itself in the region partly because it set out limited goals – something the US might consider taking a cue from.” “As Bismarck said, you can do anything with bayonets except sit on them. But Washington is always trying to sit, indeed trying to sleep comfortably, on them.”

TURKEY-SYRIA. Turkish forces invaded Syria last week and took the town of Jarabulus just across the border on the west bank of the Euphrates. Supposed to be a short-term operation. There seem to be two opinions: A: it’s a betrayal of the Ankara-Moscow rapprochement or B: it’s actually all manoeuvring for the end game and Moscow is OK with it. I’m inclining towards B. “A Deal Over Syria That Left The U.S. Out“. We have seen two indications the Moscow-Ankara rapprochement continues.

IRAN. Iranian TV showed S-300s deployed at the Fordow underground uranium enrichment facility.

FOLLOW THE MONEY. “We know that uptick is coming and so we postured ourselves for it.” Germany makes some.

GONGOS. Two more named undesirable: the International Republican Institute (John McCain’s – “further proof that he fears democracy“) and the Media Development Investment Fund, Inc. That’s 7 now: those 2 and National Endowment for Democracy, the OSI Assistance Foundation, the Open Society Foundation, the US Russia Foundation for Economic Advancement and the Rule of Law and the National Democratic Institute for International Affairs. (Does your local media outlet, reporting on this, tell you about the US law on which the Russian one is modelled? Bet it doesn’t).

DONBASS. A poll shows support for recognising independence or incorporation into Russia is down from January 2015 (23% and 14%) and neutrality is still the preferred option (up from 28% to 38%). There is very strong support for providing humanitarian assistance. Moscow’s policy operates within these constraints. I still say Putin & Co are playing a long game: sooner or later Brussels and Washington will tire and maybe the Ukrainians will get rid of their new masters.

UKRAINE. The Ukrainian nuclear power authorities and a European consortium signed an agreement to supply fuel from a Westinghouse plant in Sweden. Many think that this is potentially dangerous. Allegedly Westinghouse has redesigned its fuel rods after earlier problems. The former Chernobyl director is concerned. A nuclear disaster would dwarf most of the other spillovers from the Ukrainian calamity. Of which there will be many – the Saker predicts the future: a big Somalia next door.

MORE UKRAINE. Even its cheerleaders recognise it: “Every roulette table in Las Vegas is more promising than Ukraine. I know from personal experience“. And for once, no attempt to blame Russia.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

LET’S GO TO WAR WITH RUSSIA! Don’t think I can improve on Fred here: “The standard American approach to war is to underestimate the enemy, overestimate American capacities, and misunderstand the kind of war it enters”. (PS Fred was in Vietnam. So he’s been there, done that). The Saker earlier used the analogy of “suicide by cop“.

SANCTIONS. A Brussels think tank reports the share of Chinese goods in Russia’s imports increased from 5% in 2000 to 25% in 2014 and has continued to grow, while the share of EU-manufactured products has decreased from 70% to 55%. I wouldn’t expect the EU to be able to recover much of that market share even if the sanctions were dropped tomorrow. Russia, to put it simply, has no reason to trust anyone in the West ever again on anything: at any moment, some accusation can be manufactured.

ECONOMY. From Bloomberg, not an especially Russia-friendly source: “Russia’s economy has been slow to rebound, but things are perking up” and “Russia’s food producers have beaten an import ban and kept inflation in check“.

ARMOURED TRAINS! Who’d have thought they were still around?

NEW NWO. More data points. The presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran met; then Putin met with the President of Armenia (obviously working on the Karabakh problem.) Then we learn that Moscow plans to make the Hmeymim air base in Syria permanent. Then it turns out Russia is using a base in Iran to bomb Syria (permission to cross Iraq too). (Interesting historical bit). Then a Chinese military delegation visits Syria and talks of cooperation (Chinese report). A lot of data points for two weeks, eh?

DOPING. Read this. Even through the CBC’s bias you can see how completely the IOC rejected WADA’s report. Sue them, says this guy. Individually. Make them spend the rest of their lives in court.

LEAKING AND HACKING. Edward Snowden worked for the NSA and, appalled at what he saw, leaked. 50 analysts at the DIA, appalled at what they saw, leaked and a US Congressional hearing has validated their charges. Drone operators, appalled at what they’ve seen and done, leak. Assange has almost directly said that DNC insider Seth Rick, presumably appalled at what he saw, was the DNC leaker. And now more NSA leaks. More disgusted insiders I suspect. But Snowden disagrees: he thinks Russia did it to send this message: “This leak is likely a warning that someone can prove US responsibility for any attacks that originated from this malware server.” In short, Dear NSA, we know exactly what you do to interfere around the world and we can prove it. NSA ought to be airtight; I sometimes think that the most underrated reality of the Obama period is out-and-out incompetence across the board. For example: US statement, Russian response.

WOBBLES. British PM May phoned Putin and agreed relations should be improved; reiterated by the Foreign Minister. Let’s not get excited but don’t forget a couple of years ago how “isolated” Putin was, how he was “failing” and how Russia was “reeling”. Reality does eventually bite and its bite is strong.

TURKEY. Erdoğan and Putin met: here’s the press conference. Note Putin’s mention of a program of “cooperation for 2016–2019“; in short, it has to be earned. Syria is being discussed; it will be a long and hard discussion but, in the end, it’s Ankara that will have to come most of the distance. Especially if the story that Erdoğan is planning to go to Tehran is true: neither Moscow nor Tehran will support Daesh (nor any of the “moderate” Daeshlets Washington is always pretending to discover) nor will they turn on Assad. The new line is that both Moscow and Tehran are necessary in Syria. Ankara continues to burn bridges: Washington must chose between Ankara and Gülen.

CRIMEA. Whatever it was that whoever it was was trying to do by attacking Crimea, failed.

FROM LAPUTA’S KITCHENS TO YOU. So, just after learning that Breedlove’s “intelligence” was cooked up by neocon deskwarriors, we find that CENTCOM cooked intelligence data on Daesh.

SYRIA. “Dramatic Rescue! – 44 Staged Pictures. A kid. “The British government is… funding media operations for some rebel fighting groups“. No connection, of course.

MSM AND YOU. “The unfortunate fact is that when a massively important story is reported only once, with virtually no follow-up, the impact may be minimal. Only a small slice of the public encounters that initial account, and the lack of any repetition would eventually lead even those individuals to forget it, or perhaps even vaguely assume that the subsequent silence implied that the claims had been mistaken or later debunked.”

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer