This video is entitled “Falsifications in the Election of the President of Russia 4 March”. It shows several scenes: voting with a false identity, a local election committee interrupted as it is creating results in a back room and instructions given to a team of multiple voters. The film part isn’t much of anything: shots of hands, floors and someone in a van – all giving that atmosphere of handheld verisimilitude – but the sound is suspiciously good. The whole thing could have been knocked together in a couple of hours.
One fact, two suppositions and one conclusion.
The fact of course is that the video is a fraud: it’s not 4 March yet and the voting hasn’t started.
But whose fraud is it?
One can imagine that some of the pro-Putin people could have put this thing together so as to discredit in advance the kinds of videos that we saw after December’s Duma vote.
But one can also imagine that Russia’s not inefficient signals intelligence organisation has discovered a fraud video being created and stockpiled in advance by the antis.
There are big stakes in this election and a lot of people inside and outside Russia would like to discredit Putin.
The conclusion is that the discrediting apparatus of the “coloured revolution” package: exit polls (done by whom, over what time and how representative?), blurry videos and anecdotes are easily contrived. Opinion polls are real; contradicting their predictive power requires much more robust evidence than these easily-manufactured trifles.
An investigation into the authors has been opened but we probably won’t find out anything for months, if ever.