POLICE REFORM. The Interior Minister says police who may be exposed to temptations of bribery will have to take regular lie-detector tests. He is pretty pleased with the results of the “combing” process. I think, to put it mildly, he’s over-optimistic. The Investigative Committee says that police officers have been charged with 70 crimes in the last 10 days. And that’s the ones they’ve been charged with. Obviously the teeth on the comb were set too far apart.
POLITKOVSKAYA. Perhaps a break-through: a former policeman, Dmitriy Pavlyuchenkov, was arrested and charged with organising her murder. The theory is that he was a contractor and the investigators say they know who ordered her death. The prosecution theory has always been that the man who ordered it is no longer in Russia. Pavlyuchenkov’s name came up early in the case but he seems to have been able to avoid charges and apparently functioned as a sort of secret witness for the prosecution. From the beginning I have believed that she stumbled – perhaps unknowingly – across some piece of information a Chechen “biznesman” didn’t want known. Nothing to do with Putin or the government.
BLAME RUSSIA! As we all know Russia gets a lot of bad press: accusations are swiftly made and it’s only later that we learn the truth. Polish prosecutors have charged two officers with negligence over preparing the flight that crashed killing President Kaczynski. As the Russian report said: poor training. The Ukrainian prosecutor’s office says there is no evidence that Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned by dioxin and cited a lack of cooperation from him. When will we find that the Litvinenko case was bogus too?
MATVIYENKO. Moved a step closer to becoming Chair of the Federation Council when she was elected to a seat in the St Petersburg legislature and resigned as Governor (mayor).
ALCOHOL. Some bright news on Russia’s age-old curse. A government medical official says alcohol consumption in cities (but not in the countryside) is down to 15 litres per capita from 18 the year before.
SPACE. With the demise of the US Space Shuttle, the ISS now depends on what had been reliable Russian resupply missions up to now; but the latest freighter crashed. RosKosmos has responded by postponing the next supply mission while it makes test launches. There is a private contract but that will be some time coming.
KHODORKOVSKIY. The Supreme Court has ruled that Khodorkovskiy and Lebedev were illegally held in pre-trial detention for three months during their second trial. It earlier made a similar ruling on another chunk of time. Now what? At a minimum they should have the time served there to count against the latest sentence.
MARRIAGE. The Exxon-RosNeft deal is potentially very big. But these deals often go sour (vide BP) so we will see if this one does better.
GAS WARS. Ukraine is trying to get a lower price: the head of Naftohaz thinks US$230 tcm would be “fair”. Why is that “fair”? it is 57% of the current price for Germany; the contract Ukraine is trying to get out of calls for a discounted price of 88%. Ukraine is not now and never has paid the “full price” for Russian gas. It also says it will greatly reduce purchases. But how? Shale gas won’t arrive that soon. Meanwhile the Nord Stream gas pipeline has begun operating and is expected to be carrying gas directly to Germany next month; this will weaken Kiev’s negotiating position as a carrier (and help prevent it from siphoning westbound gas as it did before). The IMF has told Kiev (in what would be called the use of “the gas weapon” if Moscow were saying it) that it must put up the price of gas for domestic consumption if it wants the next tranche (but PM Azarov says Ukraine doesn’t need it). Hard to see a happy ending: why should Russia discount its price even more in return for nothing but an ephemeral gratitude? And how can Ukraine afford to pay and how can it reduce its consumption without a good deal of pain and political cost?
BELARUS. The decline continues. And then what happens?
© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)