ADOPTIONS. Putin would have been wiser to have vetoed the adoption ban and forced parliament to overturn it (Art 107.3): it has become the latest leitmotif of anti-Russia propagandists and has taken attention away from the equally absurd Magnitskiy Bill. But here we are. Protests in Moscow, St Petersburg and some other cities against it on Sunday attracted maybe 20K in total and have given the opposition something new to object to. There is said to be a petition calling for its ban and some opposition deputies are going to attempt to have it overturned in the Duma. And, as always in Russia, it’s far from clear exactly what the ban affects. However it wasn’t just a reaction to the Magnitskiy Bill: 19 adopted Russian children (out of about 40,000) have been done to death by their adopters in the USA (here’s one, another and an abuse trial) and there have been misgivings in Russia for years. (The usual “news” sources pretend the 19 are the total number of adoptees who have died). Putin complained that existing treaties are useless for allowing access by consular officials (federal-state jurisdictions are apparently the problem). So there is some background here.

MALFEASANCE. The OboronServis case continues with another arrest of a senior official and probably another one to come. Meanwhile the former Defence Minister refused to testify to the Investigative Committee, giving a written response instead. So this case is neither over nor is it being swept under the rug and nor is Serdyukov out of it. The St Petersburg corruption case has seen another arrest. Defence Minister Shoygu dismissed a senior military doctor following the deaths of some soldiers from pneumonia. Another police crime.

READING. Generally speaking, English-language MSM coverage of Russia is a pastiche of clichés, distortions (see the 19 above for a recent example), outright falsehoods and the lazy re-typing of hostile news stories. The economy is perennially about to collapse, Putin is widely hated, Moscow is ever trying to take over its neighbours and schmoozing with nasty dictators. Allow me to recommend an exception: Mark Adomanis who writes for Forbes. He adopts the unusual technique of actually looking at the facts: here for example on how the Russian economy is not, actually, about to collapse. Lots of people do this sort of thing in the blogosphere, but few in the MSM. By reading his stuff you will be less surprised by reality.

RUSSIAN PERCEPTIONS. Speaking of mere data, it is not uncommon these days to read that there is growing opposition to Putin, Russians chafe under his yoke or something like that. However, reality is quite different. Last Sitrep I mentioned a Gallup poll showing Russians at the average in happiness among their neighbours; here is more long-term data from VTsIOM. Running from the first quarter of 2005, apart from a severe dip in 2009 when the world-wide financial crisis hit, we see a relatively steady gentle improvement in feelings and expectations all round. Russia is not a country trembling on the edge of despair. One should maybe look elsewhere: for the past 12 months more than 50% of Russians have felt their country was heading in the right direction; the comparable US figure is somewhat lower.

“SPEAKERS’ CORNER”. Two reasonably central locations in Moscow have been made available for demonstrations. No permit is required, just tell the City that you’ll be using it. Will Limonov, who still likes the street theatre of unauthorised demonstrations and attendant Western coverage, go there? Bet he doesn’t.

GEORGIA. Saakashvili was re-elected – if that’s the right word: even the normally complaisant OSCE had some reservations – in January 2007 for a five-year term. Last year he quietly got parliament to extend his term to October. A million Georgians are said to have signed a petition calling on him to resign next week when the five years is up. Last year’s election was the first change of power in Georgia in the post Soviet period that was not the consequence of a coup and thus far has remained free of street theatre. We will see what happens; Saakashvili’s rhetoric is getting pretty hot: “destructive political goals” The other interesting development was the release of 190 “political prisoners” (the Georgian parliament’s term, not mine). More prisoners are to be released (Georgia under Saakashvili had one of the highest incarceration rates in the world). And finally, former Defence Minister Okruashvili is likely to have the charges manufactured when he turned against Saakashvili dropped. I can’t help wondering how Saakashvili’s flacks are reacting to all this: certainly the sort of things Putin and Medvedev said about him are acquiring some legs, aren’t they? (Why do I go on about Georgia all the time? Well, dear readers, Georgia has been The Stick with which to beat Russia for 20 years: a “democracy” bravely resisting “imperialistic Russia”. A largely fanciful trope but an influential one).

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

PUTIN. On the 12th Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly and on the 20th his marathon press conference (not such bad health, after all). Nothing new – principal emphasis on domestic issues: corruption, qualitative growth, infrastructure and transparency. Foreign issues are what we’ve heard for years: Russia will pursue its own interests and resist being pushed around. An understandable pride in the Team’s achievements: from the press conference, in the last ten years “we have nearly doubled the country’s GDP… We have increased the real incomes of the population by several fold…. The birth rate is the best in 20 years. We are taking the necessary steps, it is not enough so far, but progress is evident in healthcare, education and so on.” And, as always, slow and steady is what he wants in Russia and in the world. Perhaps it would not be too much of a stretch to say Putin I was about stopping the downward momentum; Medvedev was about loosening things up and starting towards qualitative growth; Putin II will be a continuation of that and, perhaps, (quite a lot in the Federation Council speech) a heavy attack on corruption. But, I say again: same program, same team.

DIMA YAKOVLEV BILL. So named after a baby who died from negligence, the bill passed both houses with heavy support and Putin signed it into law. It’s retaliation for the US “Magnitskiy Bill” (and in my opinion a rather ineffective and misguided one. Although some amusing reactions: “callousness unusual even by Vladimir Putin’s standards” and the US Senate is offended.). There are a number of adoptions already in the pipeline; it’s not clear what will happen in these cases but Prokhorov says his Civic Platform party (ie he) will pay $50,000 to Russian families that adopt one of them.

CRIME AND CORRUPTION. The former director of the Federal Property Management Agency for the Moscow Region was arrested on suspicion of embezzlement. Another piece of financial legerdemain involving the MoD, an illegal landfill in Moscow, is being investigated. The former Defence Minister was questioned by the Investigative Committee. Two businessmen were sentenced for involvement in an arms smuggling case. The head of the prison where last month’s riot occurred has been suspended and will likely be charged with abuse of power. A counterfeiting ring broken up.

TRIALS. The former policemen who acted as a spotter for Politkovskaya’s killer and turned informer was just sentenced to 11 years in prison. On the other hand, the former deputy chief of the prison in which Magnitskiy died was acquitted of negligence charges. The only other person formally charged had the charges dropped.

DEPARDIEU. Putin has granted him citizenship, apparently at his request. Apparently one must have another citizenship before renouncing French citizenship. Maybe more people will notice Russia’s flat income tax of 13%. And wouldn’t that be something: Russia as the new tax haven for over-taxed Europeans.

POPULAR. Once again the VTsIOM poll for politician of the year puts Putin firmly in front (54%) followed by Medvedev (16%) and Shoygu (13%). The two pre-eminent oppositionists (pre-eminent at the moment, that is – they do come and go, don’t they?) Navalniy and Udaltsov were 2% each.

HAPPINESS. A Gallup poll finds that Russians are at the average in the post-USSR countries.

SYRIA. At his press conference, Putin laid out Moscow’s position on Syria: first referring to Libya, he asked: “was this not a mistake? Do you want us to repeat these mistakes indefinitely in other countries?” and went on: “We are not that preoccupied with the fate of al-Assad’s regime… Without a doubt, change is required. We’re worried about something else, about what happens next… Of course we are interested in Russia’s position in this part of the world: it is close by. But our main preoccupation is not so much our own interests, which are really not that much, practically nothing… We advocate finding a solution to the problem which would spare the region and the country from disintegration and never-ending civil war.” Pretty clear I would have said but, dear reader, check what the Western media reads into this. Ever wedded to its memes.

MALI. And, speaking of repeating mistakes indefinitely, the UNSC has taken a step closer to intervention in Mali whose troubles are a direct consequence of the overthrow of Gadaffi.

NARCISSISM. A couple of weeks ago the US State Department spokesman praised the “Magnitskiy Bill” as “normalization of trade relations” and later called on Moscow to “work with the international community to support the Syrian people”. In short: agree with us all the time in everything we do.

CORRUPTION. Well, there sure are a lot of investigations going on and they reaching levels within sight of the top of the power heap: after all Serdyukov was appointed by Putin who stuck by him for years against the resistance of the generals. This blog entry enumerates some of the biggest corruption investigations: it mentions the Defence Ministry property scandal (the new Minister has just fired another official, but probably not for that connection); RosTelekom; a former Agriculture Minister; GLONASS; a big one in St Petersburg and a swindle in Perm Region. Kommersant estimates the total bill at 57 billion rubles (about US$1.8 billion). And maybe more from the Defence Ministry: there are reported to be 60,000 empty apartments for military retirees. A fraud case has opened in Yekaterinburg. Arrests for mistreatment of convicts and perhaps more coming after the prison riot in Chelyabinsk last month. Typically, a lot of Western coverage sticks to its favourite meme – everything in Russia is other than it seems – and tries to paint this as an internal power struggle (ie Serdyukov’s father–in–law). But this is a lot and it’s getting fairly high up. Here’s a website’s list of the “top ten” convicted officials. Russia’s high level of corruption stands in the way of many of the Team’s goals: attracting foreign investment, modernising the economy, improving infrastructure, pinching pennies. Putin’s speech yesterday (“Hold your applause, you may not like what is coming”) called corruption “a threat to national development prospects” and laid out the next level. While we still haven’t seen someone close to him led away to prison (but the investigators aren’t finished with Serdyukov), the tumbrils are in the neighbourhood. It’s will be long campaign and one that is never completed in any country. The best we can hope is that a big bite will be taken out of it.

OPPOSITION. Last week there was a commemoration of last year’s protest which attracted a hundred or so people, including Navalniy. A lot of the steam has gone out of the protest movement. The Western MSM remains welded to its meme that repression has crushed it but I would suggest that larger causes are the undeniable fact that Putin & Co are much more popular than anyone else and, most important, the fatal incoherency of a movement that seeks to unite chauvinists, communists and liberals. Nonetheless, something real happened a year ago even though its effects have not yet appeared. Perhaps “civil society” is the place to look rather than declining street protests. The Investigative Committee claims evidence that a Georgian helped fund and organise the protests. (My view is that I have no view yet: I do not dismiss it out of hand – by now it must be clear to the meanest intelligence that Saakashvili will do just about anything – but I don’t believe everything Moscow says either, especially not when it fits the official line: I await evidence.)

LITVINENKO. The inquest creeps along with the first stages beginning today. Many interesting rumours and possibilities. His widow who, it transpires, has been on Berezovskiy’s payroll (surprise!) is appealing for funds now that Berezovskiy has to pay Abramovich’s substantial legal bills. Two comments: this is very far from being the open and shut case that we’ve been told it was and my suspicion that Berezovskiy is getting to the bottom of his purse is strengthened. I have never believed the conventional account: my suspicion is that Litvinenko contaminated himself handling the stuff, that it was headed south to his friends in Ichkeria, Berezovskiy and his minions created the story and the media passively re-typed it. It has become a major prop of the Putin-as-monster meme and a serious investigation is to be welcomed.

MAGNITSKIY BILL. Has passed the US Senate with a strong majority. And to show that things are stranger than you can imagine, Levada finds that 39% of Russians fully or mostly agree with it.

POLITKOVSKAYA. The policeman who spotted for the murderers is facing 12 years: sentence tomorrow. He testified against five others: their trials to come. The man behind it is either not known or not yet identified.

GABALA RADAR. The Foreign Ministry confirms Russia will no longer rent the station: a new one in Russia will replace it. This doesn’t fit very well with Clinton’s assertion that Moscow is trying to “re-Sovietize the region”.

GEORGIA. Ivanishvili’s special representative for relations with Russia hints that the two could resume dialog without preliminary conditions; Moscow is listening. In short, take Abkhazia and Ossetia off the agenda and do what can be done to improve things. Good idea. In the meantime, the Prosecutor General says his office has received thousands of complaints about the Saakashvili regime and its treatment of people it didn’t like.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

CORRUPTION. The OboronServis scandal expands with former Defence Ministry official (and, some say, former Minister Serdyukov’s girlfriend) Yevgeniya Vasilyeva charged with large-scale fraud and placed under house arrest. A spokesman for the Investigative Committee said that companies controlled by the Ministry had embezzled more US$250 million this year; not, it appeared, just from this particular swindle. No charges have been laid against Serdyukov but they may be coming pending investigation. It is also reported that the new Minister has so far brought with him 14 senior people from his previous jobs which suggests that he wants people around him whom he can trust to be clean. In other investigations a case has been opened against two military officers in the Far East for embezzling ration money; a former officer of the Federal Drug Control Service was sentenced to jail for drug trafficking and an ex-FSB officer was arrested for fraud. We’re definitely touching the organs of state security here. Stay tuned.

DUUMVIRATE. Levada finds a slow decline in Putin and Medvedev’s ratings, although each remains at over 50%; on the other hand VTsIOM finds United Russia is back to where it was a year ago – just under 50%. Still, by world standards, pretty high but another indication that Putin’s return might not have been such a good idea. He was the right man for the job then but is he now? The population seems to be coming to think not.

MAGNITSKIY BILL. The bill has taken a step forward by passing the US House of Representatives by a strong margin. What I find particularly idiotic about this is how are the names for the blacklist to be discovered except as a result of the Russian investigation?

PARTY RIOT. The Justice Ministry is chewing away at the pile of political parties that want to be registered. “Against All” was just registered (№ 38 on the list of 212). This party stands against those who stand against the Church but will, no doubt, attract votes from those who remember the old “against all” ballot option. One of the effects of Pussy Riot, I suspect, is the creation of pro-Church groups. As is this poll showing increased support for the Russian Orthodox Church. What the Western typists missed was that Pussy Riot’s stunt was much more anti-Church than anti-Putin and the cross cuttings and other things are creating a reaction.

INTERNET. According to a survey by Levada, nearly 60% of the population “use” it. News and information is a predominant use. Apart from the new law (resembling those in other countries) shutting down child porn sites, it is open to all.

MOSCOW HELSINKI GROUP. With the cessation of US government funding, this organisation is having trouble raising money. We will find out, as time goes on, how many so-called Russian human rights organisations have support from actual Russians. The new NGO law came into effect a week ago.

POLICE REFORM. I don’t know if anyone would call this very exciting progress but, last year 2.3 times as many people did not trust the police as did; nowadays it’s only 1.8 times as many.

DEPT OF IRONY. Two aircraft from Russia’s Emergency Ministry delivered relief supplies, mostly blankets, to US victims of Hurricane Sandy. One would have thought that FEMA would have plenty of blankets in storage. Fortunately, Russia does.

GAS WARS. It’s that time of year again and this time Kiev wants to reduce the amount of gas it will buy from Russia. Technically this violates the contract but my guess is that, after some huffing and puffing, Gazprom will accept. It’s not as if Ukraine can pay for it anyway. Thanks to Europe’s problems, Russia is looking at lower demand from there too.

GEORGIA. A potentially explosive question: how did Zurab Zhvania die? has re-opened with a new investigation. Meanwhile PM Ivanishvili says he will not push for President Saakashvili’s impeachment but he does want to cut his powers particularly by bringing in the new constitutional arrangement earlier than the scheduled October. In his turn, Saakashvili warns “more and more people in Georgia realize that our country is in danger”. Dual power: never a happy situation.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

CORRUPTION. There are those who believe that one of the main reasons for Putin’s re-appearance in the President’s chair was that only he has the political muscle to really move on Russia’s widespread problem of corruption, especially corruption at the top. I have always said that we won’t know that the anti-corruption drive is serious until it takes down someone in an office near Putin’s or Medvedev’s. Do we start to see this? The OboronServis case is getting bigger. The case concerns skulduggery with the extensive number of military properties. Some charges have been laid and the inquiry has been widened. Last week Putin dismissed Defence Minister Serdyukov (that’s an office pretty near his) and some think that there is a connection and there is a hint in Putin’s words that there is (although, naturally, there are plenty of other theories too). Sergey Shoygu, the popular long-time Emergency Services Minister (Governor of Moscow Region since April) was appointed to replace him. The Chief of the General Staff and other senior military were also replaced shortly after and others today. It’s true that Serdyukov was very unpopular with the generals but Putin had kept him on nevertheless upon his return. Another possible scandal that may emerge involves the defence industries which many accuse of being only able to make ineffective weapons that are also very expensive. On the heels of this comes another scandal in another important and celebrated enterprise: the Russian GPS system GLONASS. For some years it has been promising more than it has delivered and now a case charging embezzlement has been opened. The chief designer of the system has just been fired. These are corruption scandals in important and prestigious parts of the state structure and are therefore much more momentous than another bent cop discovered somewhere in the sticks. More coming maybe. I would observe that, in my opinion, the worst corruption in Russia involves privatisation: public property being transformed into private gain; both of these fit that category.

SLOW JUSTICE. For one reason or another, the Russian justice system is slow. A gang leader has just been sentenced for a string of murders 15 to 20 years ago and one of the alleged masterminds of the Budyonnovsk attack in 1995 is about to go on trial.

HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL. The new Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights exists and held its first meeting with Putin on Monday. I haven’t been able to find a list of members but there are said to be real critics on it. However, many members of the last iteration resigned charging that it’s just for show; we will see whether this is better. But a bad first sign: Putin promised to take a second look at the new treason law, but signed it anyway yesterday. A rather short second look.

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. Everything you thought you knew about Litvinenko is not so certain.

INTERNET BLACKLIST. There are now 180 websites blocked. They are all supposed to be child porn, drugs or other social ills. An official website claims to give the details (but I can’t figure it out, but no doubt a reader can).

NATIONALIST MARCH. Not all anti-Putin protesters are ones we like. The super nationalists marched on the 4th. Six to ten thousand calling for the end to immigration (ie from the Caucasus and Central Asia) and Russia for Russians. They dislike Putin because he’s not one of them. Reasonably peaceful other than some arrested for wearing Nazi symbols.

THINGS YOU WON’T SEE IN THE WESTERN MEDIA. Putin met with Solzhenitsyn’s widow on the 50th anniversary of Ivan Denisovich. I reiterate that the Gulag Archipelago is required reading (excerpts anyway) in high schools and Solzhenitsyn was given a high award by Putin. But that doesn’t fit the Approved Narrative.

GEORGIA. As expected, things are heating up. PM Ivanishvili asked Saakashvili to vacate the Presidential Palace (a rather elaborate structure for a poor country) and move to cheaper space, Saakashvili refused but agreed to turn the lights off at night. But, more to the point, Bacho Akhalaia, former penitentiary service head, Defence Minister and Minister of Internal Affairs, was charged last week and is now in pre-trial detention and more charges have been added. The Armed Forces Chief of Staff and a brigade commander were also charged. The case concerns abuse of soldiers. This is causing some anxiety in Europe and NATO which for so long regarded Saakashvili as a potential member of their club (I’ve seen nothing yet from Washington). I expect there will be more charges coming on other subjects.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)