PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. I have long been bemused by the West’s Putin obsession. Beginning when Moscow-based reporters didn’t bother to go to St Petersburg to see what people thought of the Deputy Mayor, any mention of Putin must now include ex-KGB, election fraud, deaths of reporters and so on. But a certain admiration is appearing as people notice he is a very effective leader (of course that damages the other memes that Russia is in terminal decline and he steals elections; but never mind: we’re not talking rational here). Forbes has just anointed him the world’s most powerful person. I look forward to the next twist.

SYRIA. The inspection teams claim that all equipment at Syria’s declared production sites has been destroyed. Syria joined the Chemical Weapon Convention in the middle of the month. Consumers of Western news media outlets may have noticed the curious fact that the former wall-to-wall coverage of Syria has disappeared.

BOOZE. An official says alcohol consumption per capita is currently 13.5 litres of ethyl alcohol equivalent, down from 18 in 2010. While there has been an anti-alcohol campaign, higher prices and, I think, somewhat of a behavioural change, a drop to 75% in three years sounds too good to be true.

NAVALNIY. Developments that together add up to… I have no idea. The Constitutional Court ruled that the law forbidding people convicted of major crimes running for public office was unconstitutional. The Kirov Region Court suspended his sentence. New charges appeared claiming that he and his brother swindled the Yves Rocher company. Those who believe Putin makes every decision in Russia can stitch together a story. Those who go a little deeper into Navalniy’s background and who followed his first trial are not so sure.

ILLEGALS. A fatal stabbing in Moscow led to protests and riots; the man arrested for the murder was an Azerbaijani. This has led to a crackdown with the police “detaining” hundreds of possible illegals in Moscow markets. Russian nationalists (like Navalniy, as a matter of fact – but that’s something his Western image makers play down) use people from the Caucasus and Central Asia as their favourite bogeyman and it doesn’t take much to ignite a riot. The police are cracking down (but, given the level of corruption, they are probably paid off to ignore the reality “Isn’t it just easier to give money to the policeman?”). This is a serious problem with much bad potential. Yesterday Putin fired the local police chief but what’s that supposed to do?

CORRUPTION. The OboronServis investigation chews away: and the investigators say they have confiscated a trove of gems and gold from Yevgenia Vasilyeva, former head of OboronServis and presumed girlfriend of the former Minister of Defence. And plenty of more cases too: arguably the most dramatic being an official in a provincial town charged with banditry and accomplice to murder. Numerous investigations and arrests all the time. But punishment is still pretty feeble. Putin described the state of play yesterday.

INTERESTING FACT. A US official has reported that “approximately half of the nuclear energy in the United States” comes today from decommissioned Soviet warheads.

JIHADISM. A suicide bomb in Volgograd and a suicide bomb factory discovered in Dagestan. Two plots discovered and a bomb defused. Two killed with their own bomb in a mosque. Many shootouts and operations. Altogether more activity than normal. We’re told that terrorist attacks have halved since 2011.

GREENPEACE. Greenpeace is not winning this one – check out the hostile comments on this puff piece. The story has not attracted the anti-Russia myth-makers; of course Berezovskiy isn’t around any more.

GEORGIA. In the presidential election, Giorgi Margvelashvili of Georgian Dream has won convincingly with more than 60% of the vote. And so ends the last of the coloured revolutions. At the time I was not nearly as sceptical about their legitimacy as I now am; engineered from outside for Washington’s geopolitical aims: NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine and a US base in the Kyrgyz Republic suddenly became the number local one issues. Ukrainians never wanted into NATO and Bishkek has told the Americans to get out. Meanwhile two Georgian security officials have been arrested for staging a terrorist attack in 2008 designed to embellish the “Abkhazia threat”. I expect more revelations about the reality of Saakashvili’s regime. Ivanishvili has reiterated that he will step down as Prime Minister soon.

SUNDAY’S PARADE IS CANCELLED. The NATO Secretary General informs us that neither Ukraine nor Georgia will join NATO in 2014.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

SYRIA. So, thanks to Putin, the US is not, as we speak, bombing away in a dubious cause to the benefit of its enemies. Having read a great deal of the commentary I am struck with the gulf between America’s opinioneers and its citizens. For example, compare this incoherent anti-Putin rant with the more considered comments of its readers. I have seen this almost universally: lots of Americans understand that they would be in another war if not for Putin. However, there remains a considerable pack of people who really, really want to go to war in Syria: here is a Canadian.

PUTINOPHILIA. A side effect of the Syria crisis is an admiration for Putin in the USA. This piece sums up some of it; another; different subject; this one suggests an interesting theory for all his macho activity. More examples at Russia Debate. A lot of it is disgust with Obama, but not all. Altogether an interesting phenomenon. Again the most interesting evidence is in the comments. I am pleased to see Bill Clinton saying Putin keeps his word. I agree after years of observation: he says what he means and means what he says.

IGNORANCE. Not only did Senator McCain think that Pravda would be a suitable place to retort to Putin’s editorial, but he got the wrong Pravda. He’s even more out of touch with reality than previously suspected. A window into the ignorance of the American anti-Russia brigade.

WEAPONS TO SYRIA. For what it’s worth, and to such experts as McCain it’s worth nothing, it has been officially announced that Moscow has signed no new arms supply contracts but it is fulfilling pre-2011 contracts of air defence and coastal defence missiles. Sergey Ivanov says the USSR did not supply warheads filled with CW to Syria. I notice the re-appearance of the story that Iraq’s CW was moved to Syria (production equipment more likely – Sarin doesn’t last long). But you don’t need a government to make it.

RUSSIA AND THE WORLD. Putin recently implied that the 1815 and 1945 settlements had endured because they involved Russia while 1919 had failed because it had not. An interesting take but I think that what he is really saying is that the only agreements or settlements that endure are consensual ones and that Russia, most of the time, is necessary to make that consensus – as are plenty of other countries, of course. For years Putin (and other Russian spokesman) have been saying that unilateralism doesn’t work: “Russia believes that international law, not the right of the strong, must apply.” The Syria crisis is an opportunity to hammer the point home. Indeed, that was the whole point of Putin’s NYT piece (comments again pretty open-minded).

NGOs. The government is offering funding to certain NGOs. Golos – the so-called “only independent vote monitoring organisation” – was turned down for a grant. No surprise, I suppose, but what was interesting was that it applied in the first place. (BTW, “election monitoring” is a key weapon in the “colour revolution” arsenal as Michael McFaul artlessly reveals here. I especially enjoyed “Yet most of these groups believed that a free and fair election would mean victory for Viktor Yushchenko. And they were right.” We know how you will freely vote before you do.)

MOSCOW MAYOR. The incumbent Sergey Sobyanin won with just over 50%. The oppositionist Navalniy came second with something over a quarter, exceeding opinion poll predictions. What seems to have happened is that in a very low turnout of about a third, Navalniy was better able to mobilise his support. At any rate he’s claiming foul. But when so confirmed a Putin-hater as Latynina says it was a clean election, you know that that won’t fly (you may also deduce that Navalniy is losing ground among his fellow anti-Putinites.) In other elections the pedestal party won except in Yekaterinburg. I remind readers that the only real opposition in Russia that holds its ground and enjoys continued support is the Communist Party. And it just can’t muster the votes. The ones the West puffs come and go.

EARLIER MURDERS. The ex-policeman who was the spotter for the murderers of Anna Politkovskaya admitted in court that he also provided surveillance for the murderers of Paul Klebnikov. Klebnikov wrote books that seriously offended both Berezovskiy and a Chechen rebel commander. A trial accusing the latter failed.

GEORGIA. PM Ivanishvili says he plans to quit politics soon: “…when I am sure that the country is undergoing stable development”. Presidential elections, which will see the end of Saakashvili, are next month. We will see how soon “soon” is. But he has promised this from the start.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

SYRIA. So, another fun military intervention that will be over by the weekend is about to light-heartedly begin. It is justified by unshakeable evidence that will later turn out to be ephemeral; evidence so certain indeed that we can’t wait for the inspectors who were conveniently nearby to report. Actually, it’s already fading. As before, the costs will go to us and the benefits to our enemies. I just don’t understand why we are spending our blood and treasure supporting our enemies .I never thought I would ever agree with Robert Fisk, but there it is.

RUSSIA-SYRIA. I believe there is too much talk of Syria being Russia’s “ally” and all that: I see such assertions as part of the preparation of the intellectual battlespace: Putin and Assad are each made a more acceptable target by their alleged close association. Moscow has three main interests here. Principled: Moscow sees the actions of Washington and a few others re-arranging governments as destructive of such principles of international behaviour as exist. Practical: Moscow believes, and precedent suggests it is correct, that these “humanitarian interventions” just make things worse. Personal: the appetite grows with the feeding; is Moscow on the list to be overthrown by the new moral imperialists? The consequent instability can overflow into Russia. As a member of the P5 it is a strong upholder of the UN, a forum in which it is a big player with a veto; it doesn’t like all that to be bypassed by some sanctimonious fraction of NATO. All quite simple in fact and firmly based on national interest. The famous “Mediterranean naval base” in reality amounts to the occasional use of a dock in a small port (look at it on Google Earth). The arms sales are small change and the big ticket items are postponed. There is little Moscow can do to stop intervention, but Putin plays the long game. From that perspective, these “humanitarian interventions” weaken the USA and the other participants. He is the only adult in the playpen.

SNOWDEN. Readers will remember that Snowden appeared at Sheremetyevo en route to Cuba. Now we hear, via Kommersant, that Havana told Moscow that the aircraft would not be allowed to land because of Washington’s pressure. Thus he was stuck there. So, if this is so (and who could doubt it given the forcing down of Morales’ plane?) Snowden is in Russia today because of Washington’s actions. (Fidel Castro denies, but, applying the Rice-Davies test, we may discount this). More “smart power” I suppose.

THE LATEST ANTI-RUSSIA CAMPAIGN. If you are interested in reading the opinions of Russia’s leading gay rights crusader on the latest Western contrived anti-Russia issue, here it is. He does not thank all his new best friends in the safe West. He actually welcomes the laws: “These laws, especially the one passed at federal level, actually gave a boost to the LGBT fight in Russia. More activists are now protesting in various cities. Look at St. Petersburg, Kazan, Ekaterinburg, Novosibirsk, Kostroma and Syktyvkar. The topic is being widely discussed in the media. This was unthinkable in 2005 when we started.”

NGOs. The Kostroma Center for Civic Initiatives Support has filed an appeal in the Constitutional Court over the application of the NGO law. It certainly did receive foreign financing but I guess that the question to be tested is whether it is “political”. I reiterate that the USA has an exactly similar law (not that the endlessly anti-Russian media bothers to mention that). Meanwhile the government has a program of giving money to NGOs (something, as we know from Western experience, that is fraught with co-option possibilities) and will give money to several NGOs now deprived of foreign financing.

PUTIN. A Levada poll shows a certain tiredness. Between now and 2001 the number disappointed in him has doubled to 22% from 10%; unconditional supporters are down to 14% from 19% and the “anybody but” opinion is now 5% (0% then). One of the reasons why I thought his return was a mistake is that everyone runs out of his possibilities eventually.

CORRUPTION. The May law that prohibits senior officials, including lawmakers, judges and heads of state corporations. Their spouses and underage children, from having foreign bank accounts or financial instruments abroad has now taken effect. Part of the efforts against corruption.

GEORGIA. Moscow and Tbilisi have agreed to resume cross-border passenger and cargo road transportation suspended on 2006. Given that more than half of the $800 million in remittances that Georgia has received so far this year – came from Russia – this is a good thing all round.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

SNOWDEN. Despite Washington’s promise that it would neither execute nor torture Snowden (!!) Russia granted him temporary asylum for a year. Obama has cancelled the bilateral meeting with Putin at the St Petersburg G20 meeting. Meanwhile, Ilyas Akhmadov remains in the USA. What goes around, comes around. Also, see Browder. Why should Russia cooperate? By the way, there is some body of opinion that holds that espionage charges are normally not extraditable offences, being “political”. (Strongly argued here).

BROWDER. A Russian court found Browder guilty of tax evasion and asked Interpol to put out a “Red Notice” on him. Interpol refused, citing “a predominantly political nature” of the case. Ah well, the Khodorkovskiy trial was political too. Until it wasn’t. Unsurprising: Browder as a crook would obliterate the foundations of the Magnitskiy Bill. But what difference does a “Red Notice” make? See Andrey Borodin.

RATINGS. A recent Levada poll shows that the ratings of both Putin and his pedestal party are up. The trend – Levada’s been at this for a long time – shows that Putin’s approval rating has crashed from the dizzying heights of 88% in 2008 to the abyssal depth of 64% in May 2013. Or so you are told: “wanes” “Katrina moment” “weaker” “lowest” “booed”. Few Western politicians can imagine 64% after a few years in office. If anything the anti-Putin campaign and continual booming of “democratic leaders”, one after forgotten other, increase his popularity among Russians, who don’t like being told what to think any more than anyone else.

NAVALNIY. I highly recommend that you take the time to read Alexander Mercouris’ analysis of the trial; long, but he covers a lot of points. (summary here). Agree or disagree, but you’ll be much better informed than by the Western coverage. Meanwhile Navalniy’s out campaigning for Mayor of Moscow; likely to come second but the question is whether he’ll get more than 10% of the vote as the incumbent romps to victory. A Levada poll shows that his popularity does not increase with familiarity. .

THE LATEST ANTI-RUSSIA CAMPAIGN. The famous law is actually an amendment which prohibits “propaganda of homosexuality among minors”. But already we are told that “homosexuality is against the law” and that it’s just like Hitler. Anybody smell an organised campaign here? By the way, American Stoli comes from Latvia. Watch this video; you’ll figure out what’s happening (not what you’ve been told to expect. Warning: it might be a put-up job to manufacture some anti-Russia “evidence”; if so, it backfired.). Also check out this story as an indication that there are – as usual – more nuances than you’re told. While in Moscow, have a Russian Stoli in one of these places.

ANOTHER RUSSIA. They say about a million people paid their respects to an important religious relic in Russia; certainly eyewitnesses spoke of enormous lineups in Moscow.

MARKETS. Last week a policeman, attempting to arrest an accused rapist was severely beaten by a mob: one arrest has been made. A clampdown has begun. Moscow’s markets are notoriously gang-ridden and hideouts for illegal immigrants and sweat shops. A tent camp has been set up to house people to be deported – several hundred already and hundreds of arrests have been made. At least one sweatshop depending on exploitation of illegals has been uncovered. This activity has only a temporary effect of course but a longer lasting one may be found in an examination the Investigative Committee has begun on the possible (likely actually) corrupt relationship between police, bureaucrats and traders at these markets.

PIKE. Putin caught a fish the other day. An absurd amount of coverage showing how far Putin Derangement Syndrome has metastasised. It’s always hard to pick the worst but I nominate Yulia Latynina (an official Freedom Defender): “The huge pike is right out of Freud, or to be more exact, from Jung. It is the archetype of the Russian soul.” On the other hand, it might just be a big fish. I often wonder whether Putin does these things (he does, after all, take a cameraman) in order to get a good laugh at the reactions.

ANNIVERSARY. What a lot has changed. A new government in Tbilisi; Saakashvili soon to be gone. But what remains is mistrust in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the declaration. Be a long time, if ever, until that stops. IF the new government apologises sincerely for attacks since the late 1980s; IF arrests are made of the guilty; IF Georgia becomes the sort of country that you might want to be a part of; IF enough time goes by; THEN maybe. Meanwhile a poll says nearly half of Russians have good feelings towards Georgia.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

RUSSIA DEBATE. My colleague Anatoly Karlin has created a website The Russia Debate as a repository for the healthy discussion throughout the English Russophere. The idea is that it would become the go to spot for discussions about issues pertaining to Russia arranged by topic and searchable. At the moment an enormous amount of this discussion happens on Mark Chapman’s site The Kremlin Stooge. All sorts of highly intelligent and useful information may be found there but it is not user-friendly. So I ask you to patronise The Russia Debate and build it up as a repository of the collective wisdom. And those of you who observe but do not participate should scout it too.

THE FAILURE OF PUTINISM. The Russian birth rate in 2012 actually exceeded the US birth rate. The World Bank ranks Russia as the fifth largest GDP in the world by purchasing power, displacing Germany, and eighth over all. The long–predicted collapse must be postponed. Again.

CORRUPTION. Arrests and investigations: tax officer fraud; parliamentarian extortion; regional minister bribes; gang illegal money transfer; mayor corruption; Serdyukov again and again; Armed Forces. Convictions: Khimki City official for violence. And Navalniy. And Browder. And a former Tula governor. See below.

BUT FIRST, SOMETHING YOU WON’T HEAR ABOUT. The European Court of Human Rights announced its judgement on the first Khodorkovskiy trial and found no violation of several articles including right to a fair trial. There is a propaganda war against Russia and initial reports create the bad impression while reconsideration, like this one, arrive too late. Vide Litvinenko. Khodorkovskiy’s site spins the results as best it can. Read the download. It is best, in the case of Russia, to read the original, not read about it; the “about” part is almost always manipulated to fit the anti-Russia memes. See below.

NAVALNIY. Found guilty of responsibility for embezzlement but now out on bail pending appeal. Naturally, as a Putin opponent, the Western MSM assumes he is completely innocent. There is an enormous amount of information in the comments on Mark Chapman’s blog; anyone reading them would soon realise that the Western media didn’t report even a tenth of the story.

MAGNITSKIY. The “trial of a dead man” is completed. Or, accurately, the trial of a live man and his dead assistant is completed. The court convicted William Browder of tax evasion and sentenced him to 9 years and also found Magnitskiy guilty of tax evasion. Just like Stalin, said Browder. This Reuters report is stunningly one-sided: of 1006 words, 475 are opinions criticising the verdict, 150 from Browder himself. Only 44 mention the charge; none mention evidence. Moscow has asked for an Interpol warrant for Browder.

A PUBLICISED TRIAL. The Western MSM likes to give you the impression that only Putin’s enemies are sentenced but the former governor of Tula Region, appointed by Putin, re-appointed by Medvedev and a United Russia member, has just been sentenced to 9 ½ years for bribe-taking.

LITVINENKO. William Dunkerley keeps us up to date: we’re even farther away from learning what happened.

BEREZOVSKIY. We are told, via the UK Embassy in Moscow, that the toxicology examination to find out the cause of Berezovskiy’s death should be completed by the end of the year. Nine months after his death! This isn’t going to turn into another Litvinenko case, is it?

RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES. Quite a lot of activity. At the beginning of the month, an exercise with the Chinese Navy, said to be its largest-ever with a foreign power. Then a series of large combat readiness “snap checks” in the Far East that eventually involved 160,000 troops, 1000 AFVs, 130 aircraft and 70 ships. Documentary here. This concluded on the 22nd and now there is a series of “snap drills” for the Strategic Missile Forces.

INTERESTING STORY. Saakashvili – not typically a source I give much credibility to – has charged that before the August 2008 war Jerusalem gave Moscow the operating codes for the RPVs it had sold Georgia; in return Moscow passed over the codes for a SAM system in Iran. I don’t find this unbelievable: I noticed how swiftly the RPVs disappeared and how immediately after August 2008 Jerusalem dropped Tbilisi as a customer.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

SNOWDEN. Putin made an offer that brilliantly solved everybody’s problems: Snowden could stay in Russia but he would have to keep his mouth shut. But Snowden rejected it: he will not keep quiet. But he seems to be running out of options on where to go: thus far no other country has volunteered. So he may have to take Putin’s offer yet. I believe Putin when he says there has been no collaboration between Snowden and Russian intelligence structure: I doubt very much that Snowden has anything to tell Spetssvyaz that it does not already know. Meanwhile I can’t see that this behaviour benefits the USA much.

CORRUPTION. Last Sitrep I wondered whether the anti-corruption drive had bogged down with too many cases on the go to properly finish any one. But here is some evidence that the investigators are still working away: another facet of the OboronServis case has been exposed. And a brand-new case of embezzlement at the Baykonur Space Centre.

WHITE COLLAR CRIME. The Duma, after Putin’s request, has overwhelming passed an amnesty for white collar crimes. It will apply to first-time offenders convicted under financial laws who have compensated their victims and did not use violence. It will come into effect over the next 6 months and is expected to apply to about 13,000 in prison and another 70-80,000 under other penalties. Somewhat overdue: too many of these cases were cooked up as a bizness struggle. In another pro-business move, the Duma has voted to lift foreign ownership restrictions on small and medium-sized businesses.

GLONASS. More bad luck for the program when a PROTON rocket carrying 3 satellites crashed on launch. GLONASS never seems to be able to get the last few satellites up there for world-wide coverage (although I notice that Garmin receivers can pick up the signals). This is also a blow to the very successful and remunerative Russian satellite launch business which relies on PROTONs.

SENTENCE. A few years ago there were protests over a plan to put a highway through a forest north of Moscow; a number of protesters were beaten up. A former official has just been jailed for “masterminding” an especially brutal attack.

CHECHNYA. Levada has published a poll showing that nearly two-thirds of (Russia-wide) respondents wouldn’t be very upset if Chechnya were independent; 12% think it already is (rather astute of them I would say). A spokesman for Kadyrov condemned the very idea of the question. Could it be because it gives the game away? Chechnya these days is run pretty much by people who fought Moscow in the first war and I have always thought that their eventual aim is to tip-toe their way to independence – even if that particular word is avoided. In the meantime Moscow pumps enormous sums of money into Chechnya which are, how shall I put it, astutely spent. Moscow is stuck with Kadyrov. But a lot of Russians are starting to resent this and wonder what the point is. But a question that is probably better not raised at this time.

RUSSIAN SAMS TO SYRIA. Remember that fuss a couple of weeks ago? Russia missiles never showed up but US ones did. Complete with their crews. Obama just confirmed that about 700 US troops including Patriot SAMs and fighter planes are to remain in Jordan. The Russian story was just a bit of prestidigitation.

FADING COLOURS. The Kyrgyz parliament voted to close the US air base in Manas in a years’ time and President Atambayev has just signed the bill. And more nasty revelations from Georgia.

DID SAAKASHVILI SUPPORT JIHADISTS? More evidence from a disinterested source – a must-read.

CHINA. Rosneft has announced an agreement with Beijing to supply 365 million tonnes of oil over the next 25 years and jointly develop several fields with the China National Petroleum Corporation. I guess Moscow is tired of reading about its “energy weapon” and “energy blackmail”.

LATVIA SYMBOLS. Latvians, like the other Balts, have difficulty deciding who their war heroes are: those who wore Soviet Army uniforms and defeated the Nazis, or those who joined the Nazis to fight the Soviets; citizens of little countries caught in the middle don’t have any happy choices. Every year this wound is re-opened with the SS veteran parade. Parliament has just passed a law banning the public display of both Soviet and Nazi symbols, which is a solution of sorts. The Russian Foreign Ministry was again dumb enough to react: “blasphemous attempt to rewrite the history of World War II”. Calm down: it’s Latvia’s problem, not yours.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)