RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 26 February 2015

DEBALTSEVO. The Kiev forces abandoned the “cauldron” leaving enormous quantities of equipment behind (including the last of the 3 counter mortar radars the US supplied) and many corpses. Poroshenko is completely delusional (“betrayal” is a good word) and his delusion is shared by Washington – read it and watch it; for reality, here are the words of the people trapped there. There’s nothing more that can be said – the Kiev forces were fully surrounded before Minsk, Poroshenko refused to believe it, the WMSM believed him (Again. Why?) and, of course Washington and its megaphones are pretending that it was some sort of violation. Supplying more weapons to the side that started with most of the heavy weapons and all of the air is supposed to do what, exactly? (Well, Kiev is fresh out of US counter-mortar radars). Debaltsevo short film, long film. There’s lots out there: take the time you would otherwise waste watching “the news” to look at them; it’s also perfectly obvious that these are not Russian soldiers but locals who want to get out of the freak show.

CEASEFIRE. After the Kiev forces retreated in a so-called “orderly fashion”, Debaltsevo has been cleared out. Gradually, grudgingly, heavy weapons are being pulled back to locations where they will be out of range. Another shattering defeat for Kiev – the Western sources blame it all on Russia but they are wrong. Sending unwilling, untrained conscripts and crazed neo-nazi fanatics, led by incompetents, up against defenders of their kith and kin is not a winning combination in any place or time. Read what a British Army “volunteer” had to say but forget the “poor kit stuff” – the militias had exactly the same weapons – the very same in many cases. I doubt this is the end, if for no other reason than the neo-nazis don’t want to give up: Yarosh’s own words. Protest in Kiev yesterday.

FOOLS, LIARS AND HYSTERIA. Chaos in Libya is nothing to do with NATO. John Kerry says “Ukrainians are coming together to define their own future”. Existential threat to the military alliance that spends 56% of the world’s total! Russian Latvian aircraft attack. Must spend more money because RT is winning the propaganda battle (the USA outspends RT 3 to 1 and then there’s the BBC to add on.) Can’t get Russian weapons on e-Bay (get them here or Ukrainian Lend-Lease, repair them here). Will this bubble of hysteria get bigger and louder until it pops? Or will it lead us into war with Russia? “American foreign policy is controlled by fools.”

FAKES. First a US Senator and then a German TV channel caught using old photos as “proof” of Russian invasions. Trees and mountains, people, it’s a clue. And the Brits too: don’t you know that photos handed to you by some guy in an alley can be sourced? Guardian backtracks on pseudo-analysis; yes, crater analysis works, sort of, but not from satellite photos. I though the MSM prided itself on its layers of fact checkers. The only rational conclusion remains: if there were real evidence, you’d see it; fake evidence is evidence that there is no evidence. QED.

OOPS. A Lithuanian TV station asked viewers if they had noticed increasing Russian propaganda; 82% responded that it wasn’t “propaganda”, it was true. Truth, not big money, is why Russian “propaganda” is winning. Falsehood is why Western propaganda is losing. That and absurdities.

DE-DOLLARISATION. A few more steps: given the occasional threats that Russia will be kicked out of SWIFT, it has begun to set up its own process. The Duma ratified the BRICS development bank. Russia unloaded more US securities in December (and so did Japan and China).

UKRAINE. Money collapsed, currency controls, rationing, defeats, corpses, destruction. Worse to come. Many many people warned of this 18 months ago. None of its new friends will pour more money down the hole. All they’re going to get are more guns to produce more defeats. Another failure following Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya. There are those who think chaos is the aim. If so, another success.

MAIDAN SNIPERS. Probably not a coincidence that just after the BBC actually questions the Party Line, Poroshenko “discovers” that Putindunnit.

IRAN. Russia went along with sanctions and stopped the sale of S-300 SAMs to Iran. It has just offered a more modern system. Washington objects; I doubt Moscow cares any more what Washington thinks. I’ll bet Victoria Nuland told her bosses there was nothing Moscow could do.

SAAKASHVILI. Saakashvili was appointed an advisor to Poroshenko. Tbilisi wants Saakashvili on trial; it’s not amused that Kiev won’t extradite him. Ah! the troubles of Washington’s quondam democratic heroes.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 12 February 2015

AGREEMENT. Ceasefire. Pull-back of heavy weapons. Autonomy talks. OSCE. Does Poroshenko mean it? Can he deliver? Will Washington let him? What happens if there’s a “nazi spring” in Kiev? Or in Galicia? The Donbass wants out. Will the WMSM stop its propaganda? (If Putin is so determined to conquer Ukraine why has he twice signed an agreement by which the Donbass stays there?). There’s no provision for vigorous enforcement. The Debaltsevo pocket isn’t cleared. It’s too much like the last agreement when Kiev forces never pulled back and never stopped shelling. At best, a first small step; at worst, a pause so Kiev can try again (here’s Poroshenko explaining they used the last pause to re-arm).

DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN. Obama says the US “brokered a deal on Ukraine”. Interesting slip: Washington wasn’t part of the 21 February 2014 agreement. Perhaps he’s referring to two American officials deciding the new Ukrainian government without reference (well one) to the EU. The ineffable Jen Psaki explains that’s not what he meant. Perhaps he meant to say “broke the deal”.

IF YOU WANT ENEMIES, WE CAN DO THAT TOO. Revealing photo: why are Putin and Lukashenko smiling and the other three not? Have Hollande and Merkel just had a reality check? Could it be something like this: NATO says it’s taking “necessary measures to respond to the challenges posed by Russia and their strategic implications” and lumps Russia in with “risks and threats” in the southern neighbourhood; “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is not an isolated incident, but a game-changer in European security”. Should Russia treat these statements from the world’s most powerful military alliance as empty prattle? Or should it ask itself why it’s selling energy to countries that call it an enemy?

MORE REALITY. The Debaltsevo pocket traps several thousand Kiev troops. (Maps and videos). More talk of “betrayal” and the like. It is said that a million Ukrainians of military age have fled to Russia joining another million or so. Here’s a video from eastern Ukraine illustrating the reaction to the latest conscription. Deserters can now be shot. German intelligence says the death toll is more like 50,000. Neo-nazis carefully ignored by WMSM. And the solution is more weapons? Kiev started with most of the weapons and has been regularly defeated. The rebels now even have an aircraft they captured. If you prefer, here’s a Kiev side account: victory all the way!

LITVINENKO DEATH. At last the words “Ichkeria” and “nuclear weapons” have surfaced in the London enquiry. Always been my favourite theory and Gordon Hahn’s too.

ECONOMY. We have official numbers for 2014. GDP was up 0.6%, the January-November trade balance was US$176 billion, up 0.6%; industrial production up 1.7%. On the bad side, the consumer price index rose 7.8% while real disposable income fell 1%. Capital flight (so-called) was US$151.5 billion but 85% of that was actually debt repayment (see below). The RUB/USD exchange worsened from 33 to 56. Oil prices are creeping up gradually. Hardly Obama’s “economy in tatters”.

RUSSIA’S EXTERNAL DEBT. It’s being paid off quickly – here’s a report.

REPORTERS COMMIT REPORTING! “Dramatic video has emerged of the moment a soup kitchen was hit by Ukrainian military rockets.” This is first time I’ve seen a Western media outlet telling the truth that Kiev forces are routinely shelling civilians; always before where the shots come from has been a Great Mystery. “Untold story of the Maidan massacre”! What’s next: suddenly unsuppressed MH17 reports?

SANCTIONS. The Spanish Foreign Minister estimates that Russia’s food sanctions have cost the EU €21 billion. Meanwhile Turkey’s food exports have gone way up. Ditto Argentina’s. Whatever happens, I think the Europeans have lost most of that market.

TURK STREAM. First stages underway. How’s the EU doing on building its connection?

ISOLATED RUSSIA. China again supports Russia. China, Russia and India vow to “build a more just, fair and stable international political and economic order”. An excellent trip to Egypt and, maybe, new relations with Greece. Not “isolated” either.

DELUSION. Saakashvili thinks a properly armed and prepared Ukrainian army has the “spirit” to capture all of Russia. Soros and BHL tell us Ukraine is a “participatory democracy; a noble adventure”. McCain thinks that arming the side that began with all the weapons and lost anyway is a good idea; Graham says it will make him “feel better”. Poroshenko thinks Russian soldiers would carry passports with them.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 29 January 2015

RUSSIA HAS HAD ENOUGH. I agree, as I usually do, with Alexander Mercouris: here and here he argues that Putin and his team have given up trying for a diplomatic solution. Moscow used its influence to stop the rebels’ offensive last year when they believed themselves on the edge of routing the Kiev forces, forced the Minsk ceasefire, made several proposals to Kiev and… nothing. I believe that Putin stopped believing anything the West said after Libya, but I think he kept hoping Europe would not be willing to harm itself in subjugation to Washington. Or maybe he just needed time; time to strengthen links with the BRICS and especially Beijing, time to de-dollarise (Russia is buying a lot of gold), time to build up and exercise the military; time to make his case to the “not-the-world” (I love this cartoon). I’m sure he has the next move figured out and I’m equally sure Brussels, Washington and their dependants will be just as stunned by it as they were the last times.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY. Two takes on it that argue that the situation is serious but recoverable: Goldman Sachs repeats points I have mentioned; Chris Weafer says rally but not boom. Yes inflation is up, yes the Ruble is down, but there much import substitute is going on, industrial and agricultural production continue to rise and unemployment is unchanged. As for rating downgrades, China has a different opinion. Time, as they say, will tell. But I’d bet on China.

DEMOGRAPHICS. Excellent summary by Anatoly Karlin. By the way, Russia now has a higher crude birth rate than anywhere in Europe.

GAS. After welcoming the decision to stop South Stream, the Europeans are starting to realise that they had better build some infrastructure to pick up Russian gas. Nordstream too. Or do without. Or find another supplier. Or something. They’ve got about four years. Here’s the new reality.

FIGHTING. Putin made a last appeal for both sides to withdraw following the Minsk agreements but Kiev attacked. The “cyborgs” were driven out of the airport (your local media outlets took a week or so to tell you: here’s The Guardian saying the Kiev forces had re-taken the airport. They didn’t; cancel your subscription.) Another “cauldron” is forming and the neo-nazis are saying all is lost. What’s their answer: coup or götterdämmerung?

HOW TO READ THE WESTERN MEDIA. When they say Kiev forces have re-taken the airport, know that they have lost it. When they say giving up South Stream was a defeat for Putin, know it was a brilliant counter-move. When they say Russia is isolated (a stopped clock, here’s The Economist in 1999!), know that it is expanding its influence and connections every day. When they say Russians are turning against Putin, know that the opposite is true. When they speak of nation-building in the new Ukraine, know it’s degenerating into armed thuggery (see video). Know that when they speak of Kyrzbekistan, they’re not just stenographers, they’re incompetent stenographers. Take what they say, turn it upside down, and you’ll have a better take on reality.

THE MERKEL MYSTERY. I, like many, thought, when the Ukraine crisis began, that German Chancellor Merkel would prove to be key in settling it. This has not proved to be the case at all; in fact she often throws more fuel on the fire. I believe that Gilbert Doctorow may have the answer. In essence, he believes that Berlin dreams the “pre-WWI dream of Mitteleuropa” with cheap, docile workers in Poland, Ukraine and the others forever. Of course, it hasn’t worked out very well, but that, he thinks, was the plan. There was no “End of History” after all; a rebirth of history it seems.

THE WHEELS ARE COMING OFF THE BUS. A US official expressed concern that Russia and China were narrowing the military-technology gap. Threaten them and they come together; nothing is working out the way it was supposed to, is it? Do people in Washington ever wonder if they’re trying to juggle too many balls at once? And now Greece is throwing grit in the machinery.

DECLARATION OF WAR? The Ukrainian parliament just declared that Russia was an “aggressor state”. Is that a declaration of war? Can Russia now legally go in and stop the killing?

UKRAINE TODAY. Watch this video – your media outlets hide the insanity from you. But we don’t.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 8 January 2015

NEW NWO. The Chinese foreign minister made it plain: “We believe that Russia has opportunities and knowledge to overcome the current problems in the economy. The Chinese-Russian relations of strategic partnership are at a high level, we are always supporting and helping our friend. If the Russian side needs it, we shall offer all possible support we may have”. Why is China doing this? Self-interest: if Washington can bring Russia down, China knows it’s next on the list. Meanwhile China is moving into Latin America. Washington and Brussels have united two powers that can crash their economies at will (at, admittedly, large – but not fatal – cost to themselves.)

TRUTH LEAKS OUT. Despite the best efforts of Western governments and their tame media, bits of truth are slowly – but not quickly enough – leaking out. The head of Stratfor described it as “the most blatant coup in history”. As to neo nazis (long pooh-poohed as a Putin fantasy – here, here and here for example), even the Washington Post admits “But now several of these units, especially those linked to oligarchs or the far right, are revealing a dark side.” Smaller publications can report more reality (Christianity Today or Salon) while the larger, like the NYT, still adhere to the Party Line. Here is a careful piece about neo-nazis and here a compendium on the subject. Read these and decide for yourself if this is a trivial phenomenon. Ignore the election result argument, these people prefer to create fear and compulsion: here, here, here, here. (What would the NYT or Economist say if there were a campaign for “real” Russian names, torchlight parades shouting “Glory to Russia” or guards at Christmas crèches to protect them from Obama?) Even the tame Western “human rights” organisations are starting to notice who’s shelling civilians. “Merkel should emphasize the need for Ukraine’s Defense Ministry to issue clear and specific orders… not to use certain explosive weapons in areas populated by civilians.” The notion that the defenders are destroying their own families’ housing is a little preposterous, isn’t it? Especially when Poroshenko thinks it desirable their children hide in basements. Everybody has a phone camera and a Web link now; hard to control the story.

MILITARY ETC. An amendment to Russia’s military doctrine states NATO expansion and its buildup on Russia’s borders is a threat: not really new, just that Moscow has stopped hinting. Meanwhile, as if to remind Washington – again – that Russia is not Libya or Afghanistan, a third SLBN was handed over to the Navy: these three boats carry 16 Bulava missiles each, each with 6 independently targetable warheads. 288 warheads in new, modern, tested systems. Then a land-based ICBM was successfully tested. We are informed that there are now 295,000 professional soldiers in the Armed Forces with the plan to add another 55,000 in 2015. Meanwhile, the heavy Angara A-5 rocket successfully launched a dummy payload. Russia kept its world-wide lead in space launches with 38.

DAY LATE AND A DOLLAR SHORT. “Because we think it is important that Russia… and NATO are able to work together on important issues, like for instance, fighting terror.” Brilliant idea 15 years ago, good idea 10 years ago, OK idea 5 years ago, today, too late: you can’t call Russia an aggressor and ask for cooperation in one and the same statement.

CHECHNYA. Take ten minutes to watch this. A lot of things are happening you’re not told about.

EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION. First suggested ten years ago by Nazarbayev, it took effect on 1 January. Comprising Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia (joined the next day) it is a free trade zone. We will see how effective it proves to be, born as it is in difficult times. Russia cheekily suggest the EU join: “You really think it is wise to put so much political energy into a free trade agreement with the United States when one has a much more natural trade partner next door right in the neighborhood? At least we don’t treat our chickens with chlorine”.

UKRAINIAN NUCLEAR POWER STATION. Something is happening at the Zaporizhia nuclear power station. There have been some shutdowns – more than one, it seems. Rebel sources say radiation levels have spiked. There may be a connection with nuclear fuel from Westinghouse; dangerous says Moscow. This could be quite serious and there is no reason to believe anything Kiev says about it.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider