We are promised a report of the MH17 crash by October. Or is it already completed but you and I can’t see it? Anyway, something that we can all see is supposed to appear in a couple of months – which would be about 15 months after it happened.

Personally, I don’t expect much: the “Putin killed my son” meme has been implanted by thousands of MSM expectorations and nailed down by politicians like Australia’s Julie Bishop demanding that Moscow “accept responsibility for the death of 298 people“. I do not expect a report produced by Ukraine (a beneficiary of that meme), two NATO members, Bishop’s Australia and Malaysia (especially as it was added to the group as an afterthought four months later) to dissent. And I expect even less form the report now that we know that “All parties to the criminal investigation have signed a non-disclosure agreement, which requires consensus among the parties before information regarding the investigation will be released“.

Furthermore we all know perfectly well that if there were radar tracks or satellite photos or air traffic controller conversations or electronic intercepts or “black box” data supporting Bishop’s assertions we would have heard about them. More than once. The fact that we have not is eloquent: “a dog that did not bark in the night”.

But one can hope.

I enumerate here some issues that a real report would discuss and that a coverup would ignore. In my opinion the list can be used to assess the seriousness of the report. If few or none are addressed, then it’s just not a real investigation. If all we have is “must haves…” or “might haves…” or “large number of high-energy objects” or twitter, or Bellingcat, then it’s a coverup. After more than a year, with all the access claimed by the Joint Investigation Team, there should be real evidence and real conclusions based on that evidence.

There’s lots of stuff I don’t think we need to worry about. I don’t believe that it was really MH370; there’s no need to take anything Bellingcat says seriously; this is obviously not a Boeing 777 crashing; this so-called missile launch video is fake; this photo of a fighter and MH17 that appeared in one Russian media outlet probably is too; this alleged recording from a Russian newspaper doesn’t convince me. I know there’s a whole industry of fakery out there and a lot of incentives. On the other hand, the Western news media told plenty of lies about “looting the site” and so on. While it’s not in the remit of the JIT to apologise, it might be honourable if it were to acknowledge that as good and respectful a job as possible was done.

The report must address the questions listed below. Maybe the answers can’t be known, but there must at least be indication that the investigators took them into account and either accepted or dismissed them for logical or evidential reasons. For example, pretending that the people who say they saw MH17 shot down by fighter planes do not exist is not acceptable. Drawings like this, or “social media” are not good enough: we have to be shown some boulders from the famous “mountain of evidence“.

Real evidence, real discussion, real consideration, real answers. A real investigation.

I have noted below in italics what, in my opinion, are the truly unavoidable issues. But here’s the summary, if you don’t want to read it all.

IN SUMMARY

The “black boxes” and other data available to the JIT will tell us where MH17 was when it was hit, what direction it was going in, what speed it was travelling.

Analysis of the damage pattern of the wreckage will show where the missile was when it detonated.

Backtracking from that point will show from where it was launched.

Lethal fragments will show what weapon hit it.

These facts, and the route change, are the most important of the important facts. A report that doesn’t deal with these is a coverup.

BEFORE

Earlier routes of this daily Amsterdam-Kuala Lumpur flight travelled well south of the fighting area, over the Sea of Azov. This day the plane was sent over the fighting area. Who did it? Then the Flight Aware tracks were changed. Who did that? (Note: this question is very important. First the re-direction and then the falsification. Prima facie evidence of a purposeful conspiracy and one that could not possibly be attributed to Moscow or to the rebels. At the time I looked the routes up on FlightAware and saw the earlier ones well south of the fighting. Then, a few days later, I saw that all the earlier tracks had been moved north. But I didn’t have the wit to make screen captures of the earlier tracks. Others did, however, and here they are.)

Does Carlos the Spanish traffic controller exist? If so, what he says is extremely important evidence. Effort should be made to track down the story.

Where are the recordings of flight traffic controllers’ communications with MH17 in the zones it passed through?

DURING

The Russians have provided radar plots showing the route of MH 17. Where are those from Ukrainian or Polish air traffic controllers? Were there fighter planes near it? (Especially important is the Russian-alleged presence of fighter planes near MH17. That cannot be sloughed over: true or false?)

We know US/NATO exercises were being carried out within radar or satellite observation. Where is this information?

Robert Perry says his contacts in the US intelligence establishment have evidence that the missile was fired from Kiev-held territory. Yes or no?

Numerous people claim to have seen MH17 shot down by fighter planes. Conversations of the first people on the scene reiterate this. “Carlos the flight controller” says it. These testimonies must be investigated and verified or rejected; if the latter, with reasons. (Another of the key points: all this would have been visible on radar. Is it, or isn’t it?)

Many people claim the phone intercepts and social media cited by the US State Department are fakes. True or false?

It is claimed that a Ukrainian air force ground staff member, now in Russia, says he saw Ukrainian fighter planes take off that day, one returning without missiles. Perhaps he’s lying, but the investigation cannot ignore his testimony: he must be interviewed and his statement assessed.

A Buk missile leaves a very prominent trail. Where are the witnesses?

Here’s a report that sources in the Ukrainian security structure say Ukrainian forces shot it down by accident. Why should this particular story, of the innumerable assertions of this and that, be considered, you ask? Because it wouldn’t be the first time Ukrainian air defence units shot down a civilian aircraft by accident and then lied about it. That fact alone makes it worthy of at least a paragraph in a real report.

THE WRECKAGE

If the cause was an internal explosion, the wreckage should show unmistakeable evidence. This possibility must be ruled out. (Of course an internal explosion – which no one expects to have been the case – would change everything.)

Graham Phillips tells us the area still has many fragments and that the investigators seem to be incurious about them. Is this true?

What do the autopsies on the pilots tell us? Is this story about a coverup true? Are those bullet holes in the pilot’s chair? Are those bullet holes in the pilots’ section of the nose? These questions should be fairly easily answered one way or the other. (A serious report must account for the apparently circular holes shown in many photographs).

The wreckage probably contains missile warhead fragments and/or bullets. These are carefully designed – they are not random bits of langrage. A Buk warhead has thousands of distinctive fragments; depending on their shape, the type of Buk warhead can be determined. Likewise a piece of linked rod warhead would be apodictic evidence of an air to air missile (is this one? source). A cannon round would be apodictic evidence of gunfire. The shape, composition and weight of lethal fragments are diagnostic in identifying the weapon that brought it down. (If bullets or non-Buk warhead fragments are found, the conventional Western accusation is decisively contradicted.)

There should be enough evidence from the destruction pattern of the wreckage to show where the warhead was when it detonated. That combined with the location and direction of travel of MH17 at the moment of detonation will tell us from where the missile was fired. The omission of this information would be another fatal flaw. (Another key piece of evidence: for example Almaz-Antey’s analysis concludes it was a Buk, of a model no longer possessed by Russian air defence forces, and that it could only have been fired from Kiev-held territory).

THE INVESTIGATION

Why does Ukraine have a veto on publication?

Why was Malaysia – the owner of the aircraft, after all – only added to the JIT in November 2014?

Why are Belgium and Australia on the investigation team at all? Especially after the Foreign Minister of the latter already decided Russia was culpable?

We had remarkably full information on the Germanwings crash in the Alps within weeks, with many details from the “black boxes” including sound in the cockpit. Why has this investigation taken so long?

AND…

We are told (recently) that the investigators believe they may have recovered fragments of a Buk missile from the crash site. Does this make sense to you? It doesn’t to me. MH17 was heading south-east at an altitude of 10,000 metres. The US scenario has the missile fired from north-west (head on), the Almaz-Antey reconstruction has the missile coming from the south-west (starboard side). The fragments of the aircraft would continue with their momentum, the fragments of the missile body and engine with their momentum; in neither case would one expect to see wreckage from the two very close to each other.

Absence of evidence is evidence of absence.

(especially when you know that any real evidence would have been

plastered on every front page, news program and op-ed piece.)

RF Sitrep 20150806

On August 6, 2015January 13, 2016 By Patrick ArmstrongIn RF SITREPLeave a comment

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 6 August 2015

MH17. Before you agree that Russia’s veto of the UN tribunal idea is evidence that Putindunnit, you should know two things. First, there already is a UNSC resolution calling for “full, thorough and independent international investigation” and “those responsible for this incident be held to account”. It is UNSC Resolution 2166 and dates from a year ago. Who needs another? Second, that one of those calling for the new resolution – Australia’s Julie Bishop – condemned Russia a year ago for refusing to accept responsibility for the shootdown. Clearly a kangaroo court (as it were) was intended. As we have seen before with Milosevic and Qaddafi. Rather than stunts, Washington should first show us its “mountain of evidence” as a group of retired US intelligence professionals demand.

SANCTIONS. The Russian counter sanctions on food are having a beneficial effect on local producers as this Austrian TV report shows. Here’s a visitor’s report of what he found in St Petersburg and environs. Here’s what Americans are told: “Je suis Charlie et je suis fromage“. Costs to the EU are still being estimated: Belgium US$500 million; Germany €600-800 million; overall maybe €5 billion. Or even €100 billion when everything is calculated. In light of Stratfor’s observation that Washington is determined to keep Germany and Russia apart, one wonders which Washington wants to hurt. For the effect on Russia, Reuters reports the IMF’s take: “The fund estimated the immediate effect… had been to wipe between 1pc and 1.5pc off GDP, rising to 9pc over the next few years… also forecast “weak” economic growth of around 1.5pc annually in the medium term.” Does that make sense to you? Or is it an estimate of what might have been?At any rate, however you spin or measure it, this is not “tatters“.

THE NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY is declared an “undesirable organisation”. (The first of many to come. Read the WaPo piece from 1991 for suggestions). Read my piece on RI for a good laugh: there actually was a time when, rather than pretending to be about civil society and other warm and fluffy things, they openly boasted about doing openly what the CIA used to do clandestinely: “spyless coups”.

INTERNATIONAL ARMY GAMES. Mud (last year; but this year there will be plenty), noise, loud bangs, explosions, expensive crashes. Not as much fun as fireworks, but even more money blown up!

LITVINENKOISM IN LONDON. Read this – a complete evidence-free farce that ignores what actual evidence there is. More war propaganda.

ARCTIC. Russia has put in its opening bid and, like Canada and Denmark, is calling the Lomonosov Ridge its own. The US, unable to do so, says it’s international. I fearlessly predict the whole thing, after much negotiation, will have everyone stopping at the Pole. The amusement will be watching the spinners trying to condemn Russia for trying what everyone else is trying.

SUBMARINES. Sweden has finally found a Russian submarine. It sank in 1916. By the way, when is anyone going to notice that we only hear stories of “Russian submarines” poking around in neutral countries with interest groups that want to join NATO but not in actual NATO countries?

MISTRAL. Agreement is reached and they say France will pay more than a billion euros in compensation. So what to do with two ships no one wants? Scuttle them? Sell them to China to sell to Russia?

“FEAR GROWS…” Always amusing to see how Western news consumers are prepared for “narrative changes”. FT here. “Russian officials and media have long demonised Right Sector as neo-Nazis… Now some Ukrainians who previously dismissed the threat posed by Right Sector are growing nervous“. Reuters here: “Such talk and recent violent incidents involving members of unofficial armed groups have raised government concerns about radicals running out of control“. So, those Russian officials were actually correct all along? The US Ambassador (of telephonic fame) is unconcerned: “exaggerated”.

UKRAINE SALVATION COMMITTEE. Ukraine’s former Prime Minister, Mykola Azarov, has announced a Ukraine Salvation Committee; he said neither Yanukovych nor any of his associates was welcome and claimed to have members inside Ukraine. The Kremlin says it had nothing to do with it. Which may even be true: it is a little late. But, when Ukraine comes to its miserable end, it might come in handy.

RUMBLINGS. Disquiet: the “Assembly of Northern Bukovina Romanians” declares the region a “province of Romania” and a parliamentarian says the Rivne region is on the brink of civil war. True, false, who knows? But not everybody loves Bandera and the Galicia SS Division view of history.

WaPo Says the NED Does What the CIA Used to Do: But they’ve forgotten they said that

On August 3, 2015January 18, 2016 By Patrick ArmstrongIn HISTORY, PROPAGANDA, LIES AND NONSENSE

http://russia-insider.com/en/wapo-says-ned-does-what-cia-used-do/ri9078

2015-#150-Johnson’s Russia List

Russia has expelled the National Endowment for Democracy. This is a fully-funded-by-the-US-government entity that has the nerve, on its home page, to describe itself as a “private, nonprofit foundation” with a “nongovernmental character”. It has just been declared an undesirable organisation in Russia.

As to be expected, the Washington Post, in its role as Stern Defender of the Right, especially where Russia is concerned, fulminated a few days ago that “Vladimir Putin is suffocating his own nation“.

IN THE tumult and uncertainty that marked Russia after the Soviet Union imploded, when the state was weak and many institutions tottering, a vital lifeline was extended from the West. The U.S. government, as well as foundations and philanthropies, responded generously. The financier George Soros, through his Open Society Foundations, provided small grants that sustained many impoverished scientists. The MacArthur Foundation and the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) were vital sources of support to civil society, education and human rights.

Now, President Vladimir Putin is forcing these organizations out of Russia, using law enforcement and a parliament that he controls. Mr. Putin’s larger target is to destroy civil society, that vital two-way link in any democracy between the rulers and the ruled. The latest move, announced Tuesday, is to declare the NED an “undesirable” organization under the terms of a law that Mr. Putin signed in May. The law bans groups from abroad who are deemed a “threat to the foundations of the constitutional system of the Russian Federation, its defense capabilities and its national security.”

The charge against the NED is patently ridiculous. The NED’s grantees in Russia last year ran the gamut of civil society. They advocated transparency in public affairs, fought corruption and promoted human rights, freedom of information and freedom of association, among other things. All these activities make for a healthy democracy but are seen as threatening from the Kremlin’s ramparts.

The charge is “patently ridiculous” is it? Let’s step into the time machine provided by Mr Google and travel back to 1991 when the WaPo thought it had the future of Russia all figured out.

There we find – note the title – “Innocence Abroad: The New World of Spyless Coups” by David Ignatius. “Spyless coups” indeed. That sounds a bit like what the Russian MFA said, doesn’t it?

The analysis of concrete projects shows that most of them are aimed at destabilizing by various means the internal situation in countries that pursue an independent policy in accordance with their own national interests rather than on orders from Washington.

Anyway, back then, Ignatius positively gloried in the idea of “spyless coups”.

There’s an obvious lesson here for Gates, or whoever ends up heading the CIA. The old concept of covert action, which has gotten the agency into such trouble during the past 40 years, may be obsolete. Nowadays, sensible activities to support America’s friends abroad (or undermine its enemies) are probably best done openly. That includes paramilitary operations such as supporting freedom fighters, which can be managed overtly by the Pentagon. And it includes political-support operations for pro-democracy activists, which may be best left to the new network of overt operators…

“A lot of what we do today was done covertly 25 years ago by the CIA,” agrees Weinstein. The biggest difference is that when such activities are done overtly, the flap potential is close to zero. Openness is its own protection.

Allen Weinstein is just one of many overt operatives who helped prepare the way for the political miracles of the past two years by sponsoring exchanges and other contacts with liberal reformers from the East. It’s worth naming a few more of them, to show the breadth of this movement for democracy: William Miller of the American Committee on U.S.-Soviet Relations; financier George Soros of the Soros Foundation; John Mroz of the Center for East-West Security Studies; John Baker of the Atlantic Council; and Harriett Crosby of the Institute for Soviet-American Relations. This has truly been a revolution by committee…

The sugar daddy of overt operations has been the National Endowment for Democracy, a quasi-private group headed by Carl Gershman that is funded by the U.S. Congress. Through the late 1980s, it did openly what had once been unspeakably covert — dispensing money to anti-communist forces behind the Iron Curtain.

Gershman, still doing business at the same stand, isn’t happy either: “the latest evidence that the regime of President Vladimir Putin faces a worsening crisis of political legitimacy” and so on.

QED, as they say; the NED is indeed busy overthrowing governments the USA doesn’t like (“undermining its enemies” – what could be plainer than that?).

Just as the Russians say.

I guess the Washington Post people don’t read their own paper.

Although I suppose that, for them, “friends” have “democracy” and “enemies” don’t. By definition.

RF Sitrep 20150723

On July 23, 2015January 13, 2016 By Patrick ArmstrongIn RF SITREP

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 23 July 2015

EID AL-FITR. Interesting video that shows Russia is also a rather Muslim country. The Chief Mufti supports Putin, by the way. (For those of you who think it’s some evil scheme cooked up by Orthodoxy).

MH17. Watch this BBC interview. Shootdown by Buk “most credible scenario” but also looking at Buk fired “from another region, another place” and scenario of “an air-to-air missile.” Can only mean 2) Buk fired from the Kiev side or 3) Kiev aircraft shot it down. Somebody’s lost control of the narrative. We are told by a Ukrainian official that the report will be published 10 August but not made public. (If scenarios 2 and 3 are really being considered, why is Ukraine even part of the investigation?) Retired US int professionals again call on Washington to release what it has. Simply put, here’s all you need to know: the absence of evidence is the evidence.

UKRAINE: THE WAR. The rebels have announced a pull-back of weapons under 100mm calibre (Minsk II requires 100mm+ weapons moved out of range). Why? I think the Saker is correct: to show they are abiding by Minsk II; but it’s also a trap. OSCE observers corroborate that at least some weapons have been withdrawn and they are off to confirm full withdrawal. But they have also said – I don’t recall this before – that Kiev forces are shelling civilians: “In both cases, the SMM was able to conclude the direction of fire to have been from the area of government-controlled Pisky (11km north-west of Donetsk) and Pervomaiske (17km north-west of Donetsk).” So much for the US Ambassador’s retort “How do you know? Were you personally present for this?”. Or RL’s reprinting Kiev claims that the rebels are shelling themselves.

UKRAINE: TRANSCARPATHIA. Ethnically mixed, many former owners, little enthusiasm for Kiev regime. Smuggling: tobacco and borders. Right Sector people got into a fight in Mukachevo; Poroshenko ordered the Interior Ministry to restore order (perhaps a regime split on how to handle it? Certainly no one is very popular in Ukraine today.) Right Sector ran for cover and now the place is full of Interior Ministry forces and small-scale fighting. Stay tuned. (Of course, maybe Putindunnit.)

UKRAINE: RIGHT SECTOR. A headline to remember: “Kiev Forced to Fight Its Own Fascist Militias“. After Mukachevo, Right Sector declared mobilisation, demanded resignations all round and set up blockposts here and there. There was a sizeable demonstration in Kiev on Tuesday; Yarosh demanded a referendum on confidence in the government and an end to obedience to it. Analyses of the situation from Gordon Hahn, Alexander Mercouris and Nikolai Petro. BBC actually notices. Many of us have been awaiting the next stage of the Ukrainian demolution (a new word coined by Miquel Puertas: demolition + revolution) – Nazi Spring, as it were. We are a step closer. But it’s extremely fluid: witness what Yarosh is saying now. A weak government to be sure but Right Sector may not have the street power it thinks it has.

UKRAINE: NEIGHBOURS. Very interesting article by a Polish writer who contemplates where the burning fuse is going: a Ukrainian “Banderland” is not in Poland’s interests and (so much for NATO and the EU) “if the West needs Poland, it’s only as a battlefield for a possible conflict with Russia”; maybe better if Ukraine were partitioned. Other Poles are concerned about the glorification of Bandera and the OUN; and a movie is on the way. Hungary has cleared its throat, so to speak, about Hungarians living in Transcarpathia. The violence in Transcarpathia has made neighbouring countries strengthen their borders – after all the armed Right Sector people are hiding somewhere nearby. Meanwhile, Schengen members are cutting down on issuing visas to Ukrainians. Remember “the end of history”? Neither do they.

???!!! Did Washington supply Stingers to Kiev? Anyway, the Donbass fighters now have them. This may make sense in some universe, but not the one we’re living in.

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC. Several people have suspected an American attempt to start a “colour revolution” there – to many the choice of mission head is diagnostic. In this respect the announcement of a “human rights” award to a dissident was protested by the government. When the US did nothing, the PM denounced the 1993 assistance agreement with the USA.

IRAN DEAL. We’ll see. Many in the USA want to denounce it and that may happen. In which case who will follow Washington and who won’t? It’s good (and proper) that Obama thanked Russia, but I don’t expect much. As to European missile defence being cancelled, let’s ask Putin. But undeniably a major event.

Bubble Media Confuses Itself: But not us

On July 17, 2015January 29, 2016 By Patrick ArmstrongIn ACCUSATIONS, MH17, PROPAGANDA, LIES AND NONSENSE

http://russia-insider.com/en/bubble-media-confuses-itself/ri8805

An Australian MSM outlet known as news.com.au has published a video and transcript with the breathless title of “Full transcript: Russian-backed rebels ransack the wreckage of MH17 in shocking 17-minute video”. The sub-title is :”For 17 minutes, they ransacked the luggage of innocent people who had just been shot out of the sky. The full transcript of the never-before-seen footage reveals what they were looking for.” We are helped to the correct feelings with comments like: “No respect … Rebels taking what they want ” “Disgusting … A rebel going through the bag of a victim”.

Here it is: see for yourself.
So, this news outlet thought it had a scoop that would further cement the Accepted Western Story about MH17 and put more all-round blame on the rebels in eastern Ukraine.

But instead….

The problem with living in the bubble is that you don’t know that you are inside the bubble. You do not understand that 1) there is no evidence worthy of the name that the rebels or the Russians shot MH17 down and 2) that your job is to manufacture more fake evidence.

What being in the bubble really means is that you are so far inside the bubble, that everybody you talk to is in the bubble with you, that everything you read or see is selected for the bubble-view that the bubble-view becomes the only view. And you come to believe that there’s no one outside the bubble except conspiracy theorists and Putin trolls. The walls of the bubble are thick and impenetrable. So you do not know what a “Sukhoi” is because you’ve never seen the evidence that a Ukrainian Sukhoi-27 shot MH-17 down.

So you have no idea when you rush to publish another smear job that what you have actually done is add another piece of evidence to the Sukhoi shoot down theory.

Here is some of the evidence (there is more)that MH17 was shot down by a Ukrainian fighter plane:

The suppressed (but not suppressed enough) BBC report of eyewitnesses.
The witness of the Ukrainian air force technician.
Not necessarily on order from Kiev, by the way.
An eyewitness.
Another eyewitness.
A report arguing an air-to-air missile destroyed it.
And, thank you news.com.au, now there is your evidence.

Read these excerpts from the transcript. These people are not looting; they are trying to figure out which bits are from MH-17 and which from the Sukhoi fighter they shot down. They are going through the wreckage trying to understand what they have here.

Here are the excerpts that the inhabitants of Bubble-land didn’t understand:

They say the Sukhoi (Fighter) brought down the civilian plane and ours brought down the fighter.

Background: But where is the Sukhoi?

There it is … it’s the passenger plane.

Background: [Undistinguished]. Where is the Sukhoi then?

Background: It’s confusing. No idea where the Sukhoi is, it’s burning here and there and debris everywhere

Background: Who’s opened a corridor for them to fly over here?

Cmdr: Hello, yes. They saw a pilot crawling at Rassipnaya. A pilot was seen crawling.

Cmdr: It’s a civilian.

Cmdr:…F***. Passenger plane was f*****.

Cmdr: The other plane that fell down, they are after them, the pilots.

Background: The second one?

Cmdr: Yes, there’s 2 planes taken down. We need the second.

Background: The second one is a civilian too?

Background: The fighter jet brought down this one, and our people brought down the fighter.

Background: They decided to do it this way, to look like we have brought down the plane.

Yes Kalyian. I understood you, but we’re already at the crash site. A passenger plane was brought down. They brought down the passenger plane and we brought down the fighter.

We’re at the crash site.

Cmdr: The parachute jumpers are there.

Background: But there are two planes, from my understanding.

Background: And what’s the other one? A Sukoi?

Cmdr: A Sukhoi.

The Sukhoi brought down the plane and we brought down the Sukhoi.

Is it far from here? Where did it fall?

Looks like … Where’s the smoke coming from?

Somewhere else is burning, the 49 village.

I mean … the two pilots landed on parachutes.

Cmdr: Five parachutes jumped off this plane. Five people jumped off this plane on the bird site. How to get there?

Fools 10, Wise Men 0

On July 10, 2015November 13, 2018 By Patrick ArmstrongIn PROPAGANDA, LIES AND NONSENSE

http://russia-insider.com/en/fools-10-wise-men-0/ri8658

Author’s note, July 2015: I wrote this in Spring 2008 for a website that has since disappeared. Someone asked me for a copy the other day and I decided to re-print it on RI. The main interest today, I think, is as an example of how the anti-Russia diatribe has hardly changed over the years: Putin remains defined by his time in the KGB, he’s still vaguely responsible for mysterious deaths, actions that are benign when the West does them are hostile when Russia does and so on. And, of course, as a finally cherry on the sundae, the misquotation.

As I say, these things take very little effort to write – just string together the usual accusations, add the twist of the day – but they can be quite time-consuming to contradict.

I have changed nothing but repaired all the hyperlinks.

RF Sitrep 20150709

On July 9, 2015January 13, 2016 By Patrick ArmstrongIn RF SITREP

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 9 July 2015

SAME AGAIN. The USA’s new National Military Strategy finds threats everywhere: “the most unpredictable I have seen in 40 years of service”. Russia, Iran, North Korea and China are specifically named as, in order, undermining, destabilising, threatening and adding tension. Some questions it neither asks nor answers: since, say 2002, is jihadism a bigger threat or a smaller threat? Iraq more stable or less stable? Afghanistan ditto? Russia more friendly or less friendly? China ditto? What makes them think that another dozen years of the same thing will get different results?

PUTIN’S RESPONSE. In what I agree was probably not an accident, Putin uses the expression “our geopolitical opponents” rather than his more usual “partners” at a recent meeting of the Security Council. “We cannot hope that some of our geopolitical opponents will change their hostile course anytime in the foreseeable future.” This is as close as I have seen him come to publicly stating Russia is under attack. He remains confident: “It is clear today that attempts to split and divide our society, play on our problems, and seek out our vulnerable spots and weak links have not produced the results hoped for by those who imposed these restrictive measures on our country and continue to support them.” He is correct to be confident, in my opinion.

N”G”Os. The Russian Federation Council has listed foreign organisations operating in Russia it considered to be undesirable and asked the Prosecutor General to rule on them. The idea presumably being to get a ruling that allows them to be expelled. They are the usual array of so-called non-government organisations which are part and parcel of Suzanne Nossel’s “smart power”. That is to say, agents of US foreign policy usually funded by the US State Department (eg, NDI, Freedom House, NED). These are the incubators of “colour revolutions”.

KHODORKOVSKIY. The Russian Investigative Committee spokesman says Khodorkovskiy could have ordered the murder of Nefteyugansk mayor Vladimir Petukhov in 1998. An investigation will begin.

SANCTIONS. One could make a reasonable argument that the sanctions are doing more harm to Europe than to Russia. An Austrian estimate puts the long term cost at €90 billion with over 2 million lost jobs. Meanwhile here’s someone wondering if the sanctions against Russia even exist any more.

UKRAINE’S MISERY. “The habit of hunger“. (Translation). A UN report estimates a third of the population will be in poverty by the end of the year. Even the World Bank, optimistic as it tries to be, knows the economy is disappearing. Saakashvili is quoted as saying it will be 20 years before it returns to the pre-Maidan state. Default is coming. Another UN report says Russia leads the world in asylum requests: the vast majority are from Ukraine. (“Some 172,000 people had applied for asylum in neighbouring countries in Europe, including more than 168,000 people in the Russian Federation. A further 149,000 applied for other forms of legal stay in the Russian Federation.” (So much for the “Russia is the enemy” trope.) The Cyberberkut hackers claim to have turned up a document from the Ukrainian Procuracy saying the so-called “volunteer battalions” are out of control and little more than criminal organisations. OSCE observers report they were told by one of the most eminent, Pravy Sektor, that “they had their own orders and did not fall under the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces“. They demand a return to war. Corruption and inefficiency remain, even in the war effort: generals are accused of writing off equipment so they can sell it. Weapon repair facilities are a joke. Desertions and defections said to be increasing; more than one million men of military age are said to be hiding in Russia alone. Craziness proliferates. Time is not on Kiev’s side. Putin Cunctator.

WESTERN VALUES™. The Greek referendum “was neither factually nor legally correct“; the Ukraine coup was OK (never mind Art 108 of the Constitution); the Crimea referendum was illegal.

SHARK JUMPING. Georgia’s quondam president (wanted there on various charges) and new Governor of Odessa tells us on 6 July that the US Ambassador has promised to bankroll him and his team.

NEW NWO. More data points. Greek referendum – no idea where that will go but it’s unlikely to solidify the EU. BRICS meeting in Ufa then SCO meeting: India and Pakistan are expected to join latter. Iran’s President visits. BRICS bank officially launched. Saudi Arabia wants to invest in Russia. Doubling Nord Stream. China buys some Russian debt. Hungary signs on to the Chinese “Belt and Road”.

Flash!!! Daily Mail Makes Stunning Geographical Discovery: The mighty Mordovian Sea

On June 27, 2015January 15, 2016 By Patrick ArmstrongIn PROPAGANDA, LIES AND NONSENSE

http://russia-insider.com/en/media-criticism/flash-daily-mail-makes-stunning-geographical-discovery/ri8356

http://www.davidicke.com/headlines/flash-daily-mail-makes-stunning-geographical-discovery/

http://whatreallyhappened.com/content/flash-daily-mail-makes-stunning-geographical-discovery#axzz3xK2OfQke

Fresh on Senator Imhofe’s revelation of the previously unknown Russo-Ukrainian mountain range, the Daily Mail has discovered, and photographed, the recently discovered Mordovian Sea.

In a breathless piece “Russia has rehearsed an invasion of SCANDINAVIA which, if carried out, would prevent NATO from reinforcing the Baltic states, claims US security report” quoting the recently-upgraded-to-“security expert” Edward Lucas, the paper captions the above photo “Invasion: Zubr-class hovercraft, deploying marines during Zapad-09 in Mordovia during Russia’s rehearsals for occupying part of the Baltic states”.

In the previous world, Mordovia was a land-locked republic in Russia which didn’t even have a big river.

The piece, by the way, is worth reading as a good example of anti-Russia propaganda constructed out of nothing at all. First of all, as we read down past all the stock photos of Russian soldiers doing this or that (mostly marching), we find that what “security expert” Lucas actually said was maybe, possibly, perhaps, but probably not. Other sources didn’t comment. As a good example of another non-fact we are excitedly told that one in three of Swedes want to join NATO which, unless my arithmetic teachers were lying to me, means that two in three don’t.

Anyway, give it read before it disappears down the memory hole: a fine example of super inflated fluff brought to you by the International House of Presstitution.

RIP Yevgeniy Primakov

On June 26, 2015January 15, 2016 By Patrick ArmstrongIn HISTORY

http://russia-insider.com/en/yevgeniy-primakov-rip/ri8351

The first time I ever heard of him was in 1987. I was a subscriber to Pravda in those days and my eye was caught by a short piece entitled “A New Philosophy of Foreign Policy”. Well, said I, that’s something interesting to find in the official newspaper of the Central Committee of the CPSU. Don’t we already have in the writings of Marx, Lenin and company all the philosophy of foreign policy that anyone would ever need? As good then as it is today and will be tomorrow? Certainly no need for anything new.

Clearly something was going on.

So I read it and it was indeed “new”. As I recall I saw that it made the following points. Soviet foreign policy had won it no real friends, but many enemies. This had led to ever-increasing arms production which was severely hurting the Soviet economy. I wrote a paper on it (And, so help me, it’s apparently in the Hoover Library, or so Mr Google informs me.) Primakov’s piece was one of the two things that convinced me that the USSR was really changing.

So, right back then, Primakov was part of the team that was changing the whole thing.

(By the way, this may outrage people, but I believe that without the Gorbachev reforms, the USSR was heading to real disaster – they say that Viktor Grishin nearly was the choice for General Secretary. Think about it).

Then we come to the Yeltsin succession. I had not realised, until I read Graham Stack’s “Enemy Within: Declassified U.S. Documents Show Russian Oligarchs Supported NATO Expansion”, how important a role Primakov had played in countering Berezovskiy’s scheming and in the selection – which I’m here to tell you was quite unexpected by us Western Russia watchers – of the obscure VV Putin as Prime Minister.

And, in today’s crises, the whole world should be grateful that such a cool and thoughtful man as Putin (and his well-chosen team) is handling things.

So, I believe that the peoples of the former USSR, Russians and the rest of us owe something to Yevgeniy Primakov. I hope in his last days he took satisfaction from what he had achieved.

RIP

RF Sitrep 20150625

On June 25, 2015January 18, 2016 By Patrick ArmstrongIn RF SITREP

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 25 June 2015

SAUDIS SWITCHING SIDES AGAIN? In 1945 US President Roosevelt met with Abdul Aziz ibn Saud, the ruler of the eponymously named Saudi Arabia. Formerly allied with, and dependent on, Britain, this account makes it clear that the meeting was at Abdul Aziz’s initiative; he chose to move away from the old world power to the new one. Note the assumption of the author that Roosevelt had the initiative. I don’t agree; far from being an illiterate tribesman from the back of beyond, Abdul Aziz was a man of great courage, charisma and intelligence ever prepared to take a risk, as he had in the raid on the Rashidis. I ask viewers who the dominant man in this photo is. Be that as it may, with the meeting in St Petersburg, have we just seen his descendants move, once again, to the ascending power? If not, they’re considering it.

PROJECTION. The latest utterance of NATO’s GenSek uses the idiotic phrase “hybrid war”. What? When we go to war we’re supposed to look like this? How childish. And how meretricious: “We’re not interested in a fair fight with anyone,” Gen Hodges said. “We want to have overmatch in all systems.” The GenSek did not, however, speak of Putin’s “troll army” or “information weaponisation” as he has done in the past. That may be because, thanks to Edward Snowden, internet trolling, false names and all the rest are actually practised by the UK and others in the West, The amount of psychological projection in all this is immense. The only way to decode these utterances is to understand that when NATO accuses Russia of doing something it’s an admission that NATO’s actually doing it. For example, when he said NATO would “endorse a defence capacity building package to help Moldova”, he meant that Moldova and Transdnestr are to be a new front.

CORRUPTION. At long last a sentence on the defence embezzlement case. Nothing on Serdyokov though.

IT’S WORKING. The three Baltic nations, after the overload of panic about the “Russian invasion” are spending the money. And NATO countries are receiving it. Poland ditto. And Germany. Sweden too. But, it’s not catastrophic yet, NATO still accounts for well over half of the world’s spending on weapons and better than ten times Russia’s spending.

SANCTIONS. Have been extended for the preposterous reason of making Moscow live up to its side of the Minsk II agreement. Read it; there is no obligation on Moscow at all. Kiev has broken it by refusing to talk to the people in Donetsk and Lugansk. Medvedev thanks Europe for the sanctions. But they’re hurting Europe. Losing Russian tourists too. And maybe that’s the point.

Economy in tatters? The World Bank has revised its predictions and sees small growth next year.

A JOKE. BUT NOT A FUNNY ONE. I know they’re not real polls; I know they’re satire; I know they’re carefully edited, but a frightening number of Americans seem to think nuking Russia would be a good idea. Not so many in Russia want to nuke the USA.

DISCUSS. A Russian Army recruiting video; an American. Interesting difference of emphasis, isn’t it?

DEFECTIONS. Two brothers, one claiming to be from the Ukrainian security service and the other to have worked in Ukrainian Embassy in France, defected to Lugansk: “Traitors, fascists, various intelligence agents have taken up the reins of the country, and are leading it to ruin“. A week later a major general and advisor to Kiev’s defence minister defected too: he said morale in the Ukrainian Armed Forces is very low and many more were ready to defect: “All generals and officers who are aware the authorities’ actions are criminal have no wish to fight the war“. Google doesn’t show any report in the WMSM, so this must be more Putin trollery.

THE ALL-HEARING EAR. WikiLeaks tells us the NSA has been listening to the last three French Presidents.

EASY DEDUCTION. Russia challenges USA to publish its information on MH17, USA refuses.

COLOUR REVOLUTIONS. A colour revolution attempt is underway in Armenia. Why do I say that? An American company bought a power generator. Victoria Nuland visited. Familiar faces. A slogan: “Electric Yerevan“. Background. Intentions. Meanwhile, in the Kyrgyz Republic, an opposition member has met the US Charg é. Why? Let Hillary Clinton explain. One hopes that enough has been learned about these things to stop them. But if we can’t afford to lose Greece to Russia, then what will we have to do?

WESTERN VALUES™. A Spaniard at Kaunas University says he was told to stop with the “Russian propaganda” or lose his job. Follow him on Facebook here.

Russia Observer

Questions a Real MH17 Report Would Answer: If it doesn’t, it’s a coverup