RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 14 January 2016

PUTIN INTERVIEW. Long interview with the German paper Bild. (Part 1, Part 2) As always, you should read it yourself rather than what interested parties want you to think he said. “We strongly objected to developments taking place, say, in Iraq, Libya or some other countries. We said: ‘Don’t do this, don’t go there, and don’t make mistakes.’ Nobody listened to us! On the contrary, they thought we took an anti-Western position, a hostile stance towards the West. And now, when you have hundreds of thousands, already one million of refugees, do you think our position was anti-Western or pro-Western?” Good question eh? What would the world look like today if Europe had taken Russia’s advice? Or, if realists in Washington had been running things? But they didn’t and they won’t; they weren’t and they won’t be. And so, here we are today. But, cheer up: tomorrow we’ll look back on today with yearning for a lost Golden Time.

THE RUSSIAN ISLAND. I’m always amused when I see people solemnly assuring us that Russia is “in decline” (Eurasia Group). Doesn’t look it to me: pick any indicator you want and, starting in 2000, it will have improved. On the other hand, do the same for the EU or the USA and you would find decline pretty much everywhere, wouldn’t you? This year’s European troubles (Greece, Ukraine, sanctions, refugees/migrants) are the foretaste of worse to come. The USA with police killings, racial tension, disappearing middle class, armed militias, endless losing wars (about two-thirds of Americans see their country as on the wrong track) doesn’t look much better. I do not, therefore, consider it absurd, or even improbable, to suggest that, in another half decade or so, Russia will be seen as an island of stability in a troubled world.

IS THE US LIVING IN A FANTASY? Couldn’t resist giving you this exchange with the otiose US State Dept spokesman.

RUSSIAN WEAPON PHILOSOPHY. The Russian activities in Syria are certainly making people in the war business sit up and take notice and even reconsider their assumptions. Thanks to the Saker, we have an example of an important difference between the Russian and American approaches. It hasn’t always been the case, witness the B-52 or the Sidewinder missile, but these days the USA tends to start from scratch. The end result are things like the F-35 or the littoral combat ship: fabulously expensive systems that may not work very well. The Russian (and Soviet) approach is to start simple and then improve with experience. The S-400 is an example of a system that started out in the 1970s and has been steadily developed since. The Russians have engineered a system based on their GLONASS network to make “dumb bombs” into “smart bombs”. It is being used in Syria and gives the lie to scornful Americans. And, best of all, it’s a modification to the aircraft so it’s not destroyed when the bomb hits. So, it appears that the Russians often get “more bang for their buck”. Incidently, read to the end: corruption is a big problem in the Russian procurement system and the Saker discusses it in this example.

FOOD. Once upon a time Russia imported a lot of pork from Canada. Then came sanctions and counter-sanctions and that market is gone. Forever. Bloomberg tells us that Russian pork production is booming. It’s even exporting a bit. As many say, the anti-Russia sanctions are tough but, in the end, will be beneficial. We have never seen what Russian agriculture is capable of – serfdom, the village mir and communism were pretty deadly to production – and now we have an opportunity to. Certainly, Putin has a large ambition here. Not an impossible one and pork production is one improvement. Another is that Russia is a substantial grain exporter; something pretty unimaginable to those who remember Canadian wheat shipments to the USSR. Not exactly a country “in decline”, is it? Yesterday is shown here; tomorrow in a few years.

THE LATEST BOGUS ATROCITY. Starvation in Madaya, Syria. I am continually amused that the propaganda makers still haven’t learned that digital photos can be dated and geolocated.

UKRAINE. According to the responsible Russian agency 1.3 million displaced Ukrainians have contacted it and 419,000 have filed asylum claims in Russia. Another dismal Western poll. Yanukovich cancelled the EU association agreement when his experts told him it would cost Ukraine $160 billion. Karlin shows some of the statistics of the Ukrainian economic collapse since Maidan. Of course, the simple-minded blame Putin. Or as he said in the interview in reference to demands that Russia fulfil Minsk “You cannot demand that Moscow do something that needs to be done by Kiev.” But Ukraine was never really about Ukraine, was it?

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 31 December 2015

TRUMPUTIN MANIA! Putin said some nice things about Donald Trump; not an “endorsement”: he said that was none of his business. The WMSM went nuts – two obsessions at once! (My favourite: (“Putin supports Donald Trump because of the threat that Trump poses to the U.S.” But, in fairness, the author still resents Putin’s attempt to steal her laundry.) But he kills journalists! Trump sticks to his guns and faces down the anti-Putinists. In the process, WMSM consumers hear something other than the usual innuendo; a perfect example here on “killing journalists”: “not been proven” but still… “creating an environment“. Trump continues the attack: why do we need problems with Russia?

CORRUPTION. A criminal case has been launched against officials in the Defence Ministry involved in taking bribes on contracts. On the other hand, Serdyukov has a new job. I must say again that getting the little guys is good, but getting the big guys is better.

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. Anatoly Karlin has produced a map of the world-wide distribution of this condition. I note – he’s too polite to – that it’s strongest in areas blessed with Independent© Media.

MORE SANCTIONS. Anybody know why? Minsk, they say. But there is nothing in the agreement that obliges Russia to do anything and, even if you think Russia controls the Donbass, it’s Kiev that’s lagging on fulfilment. But, never mind, Europe extends them and the US adds some more. Note, of course, that while a Southstream is a terrible thing and sanctions are necessary, another Nordstream is a good idea. Speaking of Germany, an interest group reports German exports to Russia were down €6.5 billion in 2014 and would drop another €8.5 billion in 2015. Russians are also voting with their feet: it’s estimated Germany has lost about €275 million in tourism. But, still, they continue and Russia’s counter-sanctions will stay as long as they do. I agree that sanctions, on balance, are good for Russia Inc.

SYRIA. Russian MoD summary of activities here.

UNGOVERNED CONFUSION. Who is in charge in Washington? Just after Kerry says Washington is not seeking regime change in Syria, Obama says “Assad must go” and Kerry then dutifully echoes him. On the other hand, the UN agreements (Washington takes the credit here!) say nothing about his going. Meanwhile, Seymour Hersh says the Pentagon ignored Obama. Getting to be as chaotic as a failed state, don’t you think? Hard to negotiate with such an unreliable partner.

OIL WARS. Oil prices are low, seem to be set to stay that way and everyone is pumping as much as possible. Here’s my theory (not that I know what’s really going on either). Knowing that Washington is 1) exceptionally ignorant about Russia and 2) hostile to it, my theory is that the White House incompetents (see above – or indeed anywhere else on the planet) thought it would be clever to persuade Saudi Arabia to pump so much oil that the price fell and Russia, that “gas station masquerading as a country“, collapsed. Riyadh signed on thinking that, at the same time, low prices could hurt Iran and kill off US shale oil and fracking and, at the end, it would be the last man standing. But it’s not working out; Russia keeps pumping: even a new record this last week. What these geniuses missed was that Russia produces its oil in rubles but sells it in dollars; today its production costs are among the lowest in the world. Meanwhile the US shale and fracking business is failing and Saudi Arabia is hurting; to say nothing of its catastrophic war in Yemen. So, my guess is that, while it would prefer higher prices, Moscow calculates it can tough it out and, in the end, might even be the last man standing.

HOW DID WE GET INTO THIS MESS? Stephen Cohen tells us: NATO expansion; missile defence; “democracy promotion”; ignoring multilateral reality. Moscow is not responsible for any. How do we get out?

RUMOURS. Don’t believe them but they are things to keep an eye on. Chinese troops in Syria and aircraft carrier at Tartus are fakes, but Beijing has authorised the use of troops externally. Likewise the story that Erdoğan has been overthrown (off the Web now I see). But perhaps, one day.

UKRAINE. Torch-light parade in Mariupol, parliamentarian toasts Hitler, neo-nazi mayor. Life in Kiev. Gallup poll shows extreme disillusionment with everything. Summary of the disaster. How much longer?

INDIA. PM Modi visited and had the usual warm reception and a couple of meetings with Putin. Many deals were signed.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 17 December 2015

DEFENCE COUNCIL MEETING. Putin’s and Shoygu’s statements. Putin: Russia in Syria for self defence; some “Free Syrian Army” fighters cooperating; Russian forces instructed to cooperate with the US coalition and with Israel; any threats to Russian operations to be “destroyed immediately”. Shoygu describes improvements, changes and equipping of the Armed Forces. The take-away point: Russia is preparing for war either nuclear or conventional. Not that it wants war: 17 years later, we come to what George Kennan warned us about: “The Russians will gradually react quite adversely… I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else“. We’ve made them our enemy and a far more capable one than was assumed when NATO was so casually expanded.

MUST READ. Results of many meetings and discussions with Russians. Long but informative on many levels. Unfortunately consumers of the WMSM’s trash will never hear of it.

THE “CASPIAN SEA MONSTER”. One of my favourite Soviet technologies is being revived: RT documentary. Google maps shows one still exists.

HAVE A LAUGH. RT amuses itself with a witty video exposing how it really works (if you believe Western officials, that is). Also laughs at the latest manifestation of Putin Derangement Syndrome.

ASSAD. Kerry has just said that Washington doesn’t seek regime change; so is that the end of “Assad must go” and victory for Moscow? Or will it dissolve away in the ungoverned confusion of Washington?

UNGOVERNED CONFUSION? Consider what US officials say about oil smuggling. Some smuggling, but government not involved, “can’t speak to credibility of Russian satellite images”. Yes into Turkey, but not much. Well maybe the Russian photos are accurate, but haven’t seen the Russian videos of trucks actually crossing the border. Assad buys the oil. Are they just making it up as they go?

“FREE SYRIAN ARMY”. Is collapsing, reports the US Army paper. Read the comments: not many of them, but all see the FSA for the fake it was. The official story, endless blatted forth is not believed any more.

ATTACK ON SYRIAN BASE. Damascus says 4 aircraft from the US coalition attacked an army base in Deir ez-Zor province. The US spokesman denies. Russia did it says Mr Unnamed Official. Russians and Syrians stick to the assertion. Not necessarily US aircraft – see this from a rather excitable source. Anyone who believes US statements these days, hasn’t been paying attention: vide the ever-changing accounts of the Kunduz hospital strike. (And changed again since that account). Stay tuned.

MH17. I told you the DSB report was a “limited hangout”. As always, the hangout is falling apart. John Helmer reports: “The Australian Federal Police and Dutch police and prosecutors investigating the cause of the crash of Malaysian Airlines MH17 believe the Dutch Safety Board (DSB) has failed to provide ‘conclusive evidence’ of what type of munition destroyed the aircraft“. (Note, by the way, the evidence of tampering shown in the two photos). As always, they try to keep the deception going. Personally, I’m coming around to the idea it was shot down by an air-to-air missile – there simply aren’t enough lethal fragments in the wreckage or bodies to be from any type of Buk warhead; they all have about 6000.

LIFE IN UKRAINE. The latest fights. (Saakashvili, by the way, has had his Georgian citizenship taken away from him). An account of the quotidian weirdness of Lviv. Stolen artwork for sale.

SOMEONE THE WMSM DOESN’T MENTION MUCH. General Michael Flynn, former head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency. Interview here. More here: he leads a revolt in the US intelligence structure.

TURKEY. Early this month a Turkish battle group moved into Iraq. Baghdad protested; Erdoğan pretended it had been invited; Ayatollah Sistani instructed Baghdad to get them out; Baghdad went to the UNSC; UNSC (USA is the current president) in no hurry. But, it is reported that some or all have left. Meanwhile, the US F-15s are leaving. A Turkish MP says ISIS received Sarin (GB) from Turkey (remember Ghouta? Almost went to war on that one.)

QUESTION. The Varshavyanka class submarine, Rostov-on-Don, fired cruise missiles from the Med. It is now (back?) in the Black Sea. Do the Turks know it (twice?) passed through? As far as I can discover, it could get through the shallowest part of the Straits and the sub is famously silent. One may be certain that Russia has the subsurface route thoroughly mapped and rehearsed.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 3 December 2015

HOW WILL YOUR LOCAL MSM OUTLET AVOID REPORTING THIS? Russian Defence Ministry briefing: ISIS is largely funded by oil smuggling, the oil goes into Turkey, Erdoğan and his family are involved (no evidence given but coming?). Thousands of trucks in and out of Turkey. The Russians claim to have cut the business in half. Watch it – the lines of tanker trucks – hundreds and hundreds – have to be seen to be believed. And we’re supposed to believe that the all-seeing US satellite system missed them? Actually, here are the US excuses for not hitting them. As a reminder that the WMSM doesn’t tell you very much, here’s the former head of the US DIA saying that the White House made a “wilful decision” to ignore warnings about ISIS. Of course, given the Paris wakeup call, the WMSM just might report this. Watch and see. BUT – and a big but: see below.

ON THE OTHER HAND. The Russian videos purport to show hits on oil storage tanks. But look at this screenshot from the briefing: the upper left and upper right look like grain silos or something while the lower left looks like a water purification plant. This, on the other hand, does look like an oil refinery: note the flames and black smoke you’d expect from a petroleum fire. (Thanks to Petri Krohn for noticing what I did not). Blowing up anything that’s round and claiming it’s oil storage somewhat weakens the Russian case. To put it mildly. The lines of trucks are compelling, though. Note Turkish flag at 0:28.

PUTIN SPEECH. Annual address to the Federal Assembly. Haven’t gone through it in detail; much on terrorism of course but also the usual emphasis on domestic matters – especially food production. The words “Ukraine”, “Kiev” and “Donbass” do not appear in it. Which is rather interesting, isn’t it?

CRIMEA. Finding their food blockade ineffective at persuading Crimeans to return to the embrace of Kiev, Right Sector and “Tatar nationalists” blew up power lines into Crimea and drove off repair crews. Fortunately there was no catastrophic aftereffect on nuclear power plants in Ukraine. However, Moscow foresaw this and has been building electricity connections. The first bit is up and running and 80-90% of the demand should be covered by the end of the month. The full provision is scheduled for May. Meanwhile, here is a video showing the progress of the bridge.

SOROS. The Prosecutor General’s Office put George Soros’ Open Society Foundations and Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation on the list of undesirable NGOs. This observer argues that Moscow lacks self confidence. I disagree: he and others managed to blow up Ukraine which was pretty placid in the 1990s; all societies have fissures which can be pried open with enough money and effort.

HOLLANDE. He met Putin and here are the joint press statements. Seems to me that he’s pretty close to Putin’s strategy: “France is ready and willing to work with Russia… common objective, which is to fight terrorist groups, above all ISIS… agreed… step up the exchange of intelligence… intensify strikes against ISIS and coordinate them… make sure that our air strikes concentrate on the Islamic State and terrorist groups.” On the other hand: “it goes without saying that Assad does not have any role to play in the future of his country.” But, step by step: politicians seem to be unable to openly change their minds.

SYRIA. Several sources claim that Russia is preparing another airfield for use. More S-400s?

TULSI GABBARD. Check her out: a refreshing change in the war-crazed wasteland of US politics. She’s co-sponsoring a bill to stop the “illegal” war on Assad.

DIA SCANDAL. To summarise: the former head is criticising the US Administration’s policy; 50 analysts have complained their reports on ISIS were modified to look more optimistic; even the NYT notices.

TURKEY. Moscow’s response will cost Turkey billions. Putin’s executive order: tourism, trade and employment greatly cut. Turk Stream has just been suspended. S-400 SAMs are now in place in Syria (and Armenia?) and Russian fighters will carry AAMs and probably soon have fighter cover. What Ankara had better not hope is that Moscow “sells” some S-400s to Damascus, “trains” some operators who shoot down the Turkish aircraft that routinely fly into Syria. I do not believe that Washington put Ankara up to shooting it down. First the luke-warm response from NATO and second the absence of monovoiced WMSM coverage. Kerry has told Ankara to seal the border to stop the oil smuggling and Carter said the majority of Turkish strikes in Syria hit Kurds. Not, I think, full-throated support.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 19 November 2015

PARIS. The usual “solidarity” theatre. None of this means a thing and won’t until we start to hear about the role of Wahhabism in all this, where it comes from and who spreads it; Daesh’s Turkey supply route; that Washington and its allies cannot support jihadists in one place and expect to control them in another; that US neocons and “humanitarian interventionists” have produced a catastrophe; that Assad is an ally; that Iran is an ally; that Putin is not only an ally but knows what to do; that NATO is wasting its time “protecting” the Baltics from Russia and should either start really dealing with its members’ security or give up. That will require an unprecedented amount of truth-telling. Danielle Ryan speculates on changes in the spin machine.

BUT MAYBE WE ARE HEARING… The CIA man who helped start it all reflects that Western intervention made it worse. A retired British general dares to say “Wahhabi”. A former CIA deputy director thinks it’s time to team up with Assad. Even the WaPo starts to get it – US-supplied missile destroys a US-supplied Humvee. Meanwhile, Russia’s initiative gains support in Vienna.

PUTIN (ONCE AGAIN) EXPLAINS HIS POSITION. Take seven minutes and watch this video from about a year ago. And ask yourself: does this sound right or wrong? If you think it wrong, see Joe Biden agree with him: “[Our allies] poured hundreds of millions of dollars and tens, thousands of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad except that the people who were being supplied were Al Nusra and Al Qaeda and the extremist elements of jihadis coming from other parts of the world.” (Text)

SYRIA. Obviously much is happening and the situation is very fluid. Russia stepped up operations against Daesh (the airliner was brought down by a bomb), targeting the oil business – videos of hits on storage tanks and trucks. Oil is a major source of Daesh funds; the US claims at last to be targeting it. (How could it not have seen those lines of trucks? But the US effort had been rather half-hearted.) Long-range aviation seems to be hitting infrastructure while (more) aircraft based in Syria concentrate on close air support to the Syrian Army (progressing). The big question is this: it is clear to the objective viewer that Russia is leading the attack; will Paris sign up with Moscow? Ideas that France “lead” the attacks are absurd: only Russia and the USA have “full service” militaries. Hollande is close to it: “In the next few days, I will therefore meet with President Obama and President Putin to unite our forces and to achieve a result which, at this point, has been put off for far too long.” There’s an opportunity because France is sending its carrier to the Med and Putin told the Navy to coordinate efforts with it. The two military heads have talked. Gilbert Doctorow, an astute observer, expects cooperation – there’s huge popular support in France for it. Obama himself has taken a baby step towards the Putin position which was, again, upheld at Vienna. In short, Assad is not the problem, Daesh is. Even – even! – Clinton gets it.

REFUGEES. Syria’s UN Ambassador says about a million refugees have returned since the Russian strikes, and associated Syrian army victories, began. A million? Well, anyway, it’s clear that the solution to the European refugee/migrant problem is make the countries they came from worth living in again. More truth-telling will be required here: as I said before, the refugees come from places NATO “saved”.

MESSING WITH THEIR MINDS. Russian TV “accidentally” showed a frightening Russian weapon. Or maybe it’s just a piece of paper. The US will probably wind up spending billions and billions.

ECONOMY. More evidence that the Russian economy is turning around from Bloomberg.

ISOLATED PUTIN. The RI Humour Editor permits herself a small smile. Reality and polite diplomacy proves a powerful combination against fantasy and bluster.

SPORTS DOPING. Yes, no, maybe. But I am always suspicious when another anti-Russia campaign starts.

WHO’S IN CHARGE? 50 analysts from the US Defense Intelligence Agency have claimed their reports were manipulated to give “a more positive picture to the White House”. The former DIA head says warnings were ignored. “Shellback” argues that the US int establishment does not support what the US Administration is doing. Are these catastrophes the work of amateurs and ignoramuses?

MH17. Remember that? Some Dutch media companies are suing the government to try and get more information. (In Dutch). By the way, US satellites detected the explosion of the Russian airliner, so what did they see with MH17 and why are we still not told what it was? You know why.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider