RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 7 April 2016

A SLUR TOO FAR? Many outlets headlined Putin in their Panama Papers stories. The Guardian maybe the worst: “Though the president’s name does not appear in any of the records, the data reveals a pattern“. Nor was my new favourite opiner on things Russian bothered by the fact that Putin’s name appears nowhere in the 11.5 million documents! Amazing! For the obsessed its all Putin everywhere. Even when he isn’t there. It appears that the WMSM is backing away as scorn mounts: could this be the long hoped-for tipping point when people understand that the coverage by the WMSM of Putin (and Russia, Ukraine and Syria) is nothing but propaganda? Wikileaks suggests “Putin attack was produced by OCCRP which targets Russia & former USSR and was funded by USAID & Soros“. But – a further stage in Putin Derangement Syndrome: “Has Wikileaks Been Infiltrated by Russian Spies?” As an anti-Putin measure I think it will backfire. Nonetheless this leak (or hack) will have big effects, but not in Russia.

RUSSIAN NATIONAL GUARD. A reorganisation of already existing Russian security forces provides an occasion for the BBC to show us how to spin the news.

LITVINENKO. As my readers know I never bought the conventional story about Litvinenko. Now a formerly high-ranking French policemen says he was murdered by a US-UK operation designed to discredit Putin and Russia: “Litvinenko has betrayed his employers, Berezovsky and the MI6, and has pocketed large sums of money”. Read it. Possible and it does account for the fact that everybody in the story worked for Berezovskiy. I still think that he poisoned himself through carelessness.

SYRIA. Syrian forces, with Russian air help, took Palmyra last week. The area is now being cleared of explosives (with help from these Russian robots. And here’s another Russian military robot – this one armed). Operations continue gradually but relentlessly. The current state of play discussed: Assad cannot be left out of the picture, the fiction of the “moderate opposition” is collapsing; Daesh is on the back foot.

US IN SYRIA. Washington’s – what’s the word? nothing so incoherent could be described as a “policy” – activities? surpass parody. LAT informs us “In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA“. Daesh eats American. CENTCOM tells us that Daesh began in Syria (utter nonsense). Obama’s flunkys cook intelligence reports. Watch this spokesman grudgingly admit that maybe it’s a bit better that Palmyra be Damascus’ hands than in Daesh’s. How does Lavrov keep a straight face?

TURKEY-RUSSIA. And, for another example of confusion we turn to Turkey. A Turkish-owed ship was arrested after ramming the working bridge to Crimea. (The bridge is moving right along). An RT film crew in Palmyra discovers documents linking Daesh oil trade and looted antiquities to Turkey. The man who killed the parachuting Russian pilot has been arrested (on other charges) in Turkey. Erdoğan will “support Azerbaijan to the end“. And yet, during his photogenic visit to Washington he said he wanted to restore relations with Moscow.

MH17. The information that Kerry claimed he had is still so inscrutable that not even the father of the only American killed can see it.

UKRAINE. Its descent continues: its GDP is 60% of what it was in 1990 and still going down. After Condoleezza Rice suggested that Ukrainians could take comfort in being better off than Liberians, someone did the comparison: not that much better. Even readers of the NYT learn that it is a “corrupt swamp“. And this time The Guardian did find a name to write about: Poroshenko is named in the Panama Papers. Another vignette (imagine the WMSM coverage if this had happened in Russia). And the Netherlands PM says Ukraine can never be a part of EU. Population agrees.

KARABAKH. Azerbaijan’s President visits Washington, Kerry assures him of “U.S. support for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity” but also of a “concern about violence”. Three days later Azeri forces attack Karabakh. As I predicted in 2012, they didn’t do very well – not that hard a prediction, the Karabakhians are fighting for house and home. Anyway, after very modest gains there is a ceasefire brokered by Moscow. Karlin discusses. The Azerbaijan Foreign Minister is quoted as saying that everyone should return to his barracks – evidence that Karlin is correct to conclude that it was really a defeat for Baku.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Website: Russia Observer

How to Spin Russia

This news entry from the BBC is a textbook example of how to write up a Russia news story so that the right twist is given to it.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced the creation of a new National Guard, which he said would fight terrorism and organised crime. The force will be formed of interior ministry troops and led by Mr Putin’s former bodyguard, Viktor Zolotov, who will report directly to the president. Mr Putin’s spokesman said the force could be used to maintain public order.

OK, so far so good, this announced, these the reasons. But note the next sentence:

But Dmitry Peskov denied its creation was linked to September’s election. Some critics say Mr Putin fears unrest.”

You can just see the scene: boring announcement; reporter asks: “Are you just doing this so you can crack heads?”; “No” says Peskov.

And awaaaaaay we go! Throw in “some experts” and we have the twist.

Never mind that all opinion polls — Russian and foreign — show spectacular levels of support for the government; it’s time to stir up another non-story of election faking to maintain the anti-Russia line.

 

Today’s Putin Quotation

They [the oligarchs] see the mass media as their chief instrument of influence over the state. They have all become accustomed, especially recently, to getting everything they want from the state and using it as they want. They don’t want to live in accordance with the law, and I don’t think that’s right.

Putin interview in Globe and Mail, Geoffrey York and Chrystia Freeland, “We are not looking for enemies”, 14 Dec 2000

Only Liars Want to Silence the Other Guy: Silence the “Russian Information War”!!!!!

Back in the Cold War the Soviets spent a lot of time and effort jamming Western radio and TV broadcasts. The West never bothered trying to block Radio Moscow and the others. Why? Well, the West was confident that it was telling the truth and Moscow knew that it wasn’t. So the West was perfectly happy to let the “marketplace” decide. And, eventually, the “marketplace” did decide.

So today a couple of Brits (but hardly disinterested ones – but then isn’t everyone trying to make a few bucks out of the anti-Russia cause?) have decided that Russia is conducting an “information war” against the West. We have Legatum, funded by all the usual suspects, and now this latest of which this extract is enough to give the flavour:

Moreover, regardless of the impact of this disinformation, the fact that a disinformation campaign is being conducted by Russian government outlets remains demonstrably the case; that case is set out below. This being so, appropriate legal and diplomatic responses should be brought to bear both on the direct actors in the disinformation campaign, and on the Russian government more broadly.

Note that the authors evidently don’t trust the “marketplace” to decide this one; no, no, they call for “appropriate legal and diplomatic responses”.

I think they’re not trying hard enough. I’ll bet some of the old Soviet jamming equipment is still around somewhere and could be purchased for a very small amount of money.

There are times when freedom of speech isn’t free and the delicate ears of our people have to be protected from the foul utterances of the Kremlin.

(Just as a little trip down Memory Lane here’s the reaction of E. Eugene Pell, president of Radio Liberty and Radio Free Europe, to the end of Soviet jamming in 1988: ”The cessation of jamming represents a significant step on the part of the Soviet Government toward the free flow of information.” “Free flow of information”; Golly! What a concept!)

How stupid do these people think we are? A child could figure it out: only liars want to shut up the other guy.

Today’s Putin Quotation

I would even say that once, in Soviet times, we so much frightened the world that this resulted in the creation of large military-political blocs. Did we benefit from that?

Certainly, not. We thought, for some strange reason ten years ago, that everyone loved us heartily and that they all should toil, while we would reap the fruits – I mean the G-8 countries. That we did not even have to use the fork, that we only had to open our mouths and pies would jump into them of their own volition.

Putin interview with journalists from Nezavisimaya Gazeta, ORT and RTR. Interview 24 Dec 2000. Text published Nezavisimaya Gazeta 26 Dec 2000.

Today’s Quotation About Putin

President Putin’s KGB roots have sadly informed a style of governance that is neither reformist nor particularly democratic. The common thread throughout his domestic and foreign policies is his effort to trade on fear — the fears of Russians that their country is under attack from hostile external forces (Chechens, NATO or free marketeers); and the fears of Westerners that if not for a strong, pragmatic leader, Russia will again become unruly, unstable and potentially aggressive. Instead of beating down the real hostile forces in Russia — corruption, ignorance, a bloated state — Mr. Putin cleverly changes the rules of the game.

Garry Kasparov “The Russian President Trades on Fear” The Wall Street Journal Europe, 4 Jan 2001

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 24 March 2016

(Note 25 March. Just after I put this out I read Jon Hellevig’s “The Hidden Story of Crimea’s Economic Success” which shows up the WaPo story for the nonsense it is.)

THINGS THE WMSM WON’T TELL YOU. “The only developed countries where birth rates remain higher than Russia’s are Australia, New Zealand, and Iceland.” Not, of course that mere facts slow down the anti-Russia propagandists: “Fertility rates in Russia are falling, and Russia’s population is in decline…” (last June) but, then, the Russia they rail against exists mostly in their imaginations.

ECONOMIST. The latest “A hollow superpower” will give as good a laugh in a few years as this prediction from 2012: “The beginning of the end of Putin“. Don’t know why people bother to renew their subscription: it’s not as if anything it says changes year by year.

ECONOMY. In February the industrial production index grew 1% year on year; first growth in a year.

OIL. The major oil producers are supposed to meet next month to discuss production freezes.

CRIMEA. In honour of the second anniversary of Crimea’s return to Russia we have this from the WaPo: “Crimea’s ‘new normal’ of repression”. Not even their readers believe it: the most liked comment is “On the whole, this editorial is another spiteful, propagandistic and manipulative propaganda piece.” Here are a number of Western opinion polls showing widespread, and growing, enthusiasm there.

SYRIA. Increasingly incoherent Washington spokesman says Syrians can make any decision they want as long as it’s the right one. The ceasefire seems to be holding reasonably well and Syrian forces continue to gain ground. Russian special forces were there (no surprise: probably still are). Should have listened to Russia in 2012, says the former Special Envoy to Syria. This makes me wonder if there’s any truth in this. RT crew claims to have found documents on Daesh-Turkey oil trade. My take: “Another Lesson from Moscow Washington Won’t Learn“.

PUTIN IS WEAPONISING…. Stupidity.

LESIN. Transpires not a heart attack after all but likely murder. FBI dunnit. Putindunnit. (Of course Putin would wait until he got to Washington to kill him rather than an easy hit in Moscow. Probably.) Perhaps we’ll find out some day.

FOOD. Good report from an intelligent observer on situation in St Petersburg.

I WAS WRONG. On who today’s poster child of Russian horribleness is; a new meme is born. I can’t be bothered researching it.

LIES. The truth dribbles out. “The Big Lie About the Libyan War“. “Secret cables from the United States embassy in Beijing have shown there was no bloodshed inside Tiananmen Square“. “A 2006 cable from US Ambassador to Syria William Roebuck discussed ‘potential vulnerabilities’ of the Assad administration and the ‘possible means to exploit them’.All that hype about Syria was actually about Israel and Iran. CIA was in Afghanistan before the Soviets entered. All that hype about Libya? don’t forget Qaddafi’s gold. Veterans Today permits itself a victory lap for getting Ghouta right. But don’t worry: everything you read today is true.

WESTERN VALUES. The (new) US general says “I grieve with you” over the destruction of the Kunduz hospital. Newest story, replacing the old and newer, by the way: “targeting sensors experienced a glitch”. Apparently, you can’t see a lit-up hospital from a circling C-130.

OOPS. According to the Electoral Integrity Project, the USA ranks 47th in the world for quality of elections. Bit of schadenfreude for the country that is so quick to judge other elections.

DOCUMENTARY ON UKRAINE. “Ukraine, les masques de la révolution” here with English sub titles and background. The author started out believing all the “revolution of dignity” “European civilisational choice” stuff but found it rather different when he got there.

NEXT YEAR WILL BE BETTER. “We continue to believe that 2016 can and should be the year that Ukraine breaks free from the unholy alliance of dirty money and dirty politics that has ripped off Ukrainians for far too long” – Nuland. Or not: “Catastrophe has no end in sight” – Jim Rogers.

NUCLEAR UKRAINE. A reminder that things can still get a lot worse. Here’s a report claiming that Kiev has taken many of the radioactive vehicles left at Chernobyl and re-used them or melted them down. Ukraine nuclear engineers write protest letter about dangerous orders. And there’s already the concern about US-supplied fuel. Other worries have appeared in the past. There are a lot of reactors in Ukraine.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Websites: US-Russia, Russia Insider, Russia Observer

 

Russia Is Finished Quotations

First of all, the policy that is being pursued in our country is the policy not of yesterday, but of the day before yesterday. It is linked to the nostalgia of very many people in our country for the Soviet stagnation and for the Soviet traditions.

We witness a traditional policy, a return to old habits such as renunciation of freedom of expression, renunciation of all freedom, renunciation of such values as non-use of the army in internal conflicts, renunciation of personal initiative and of outspokenness; an expectation that benefits are about to be distributed from above. This is the way the majority of citizens feel. And this is the main feature of the past year. The policy of our authorities and the President have pursued this year tends to bring back the mentality of the day before yesterday.

Grigoriy Yavlinskiy, “Hero of the Day” program, NTV, 20 Dec 2000