HAPPY NEW YEAR! С НОВЫМ ГОДОМ!

JIHADIST WAR IN RUSSIA. The jihadist war continues in the North Caucasus. After the deaths of Khattab in 2002 and Basayev in 2006, jihadist activity slowed greatly; but a new leader, who has re-animated the “Caucasus Emirate” has appeared, (Said Abu Saad Buryatskiy). His new tactics use suicide bombers to target the security forces and other opponents. Since the last Sitrep, there has been a murder attempt on an imam, car bombs in Nazran and elsewhere in Ingushetia, a police chief murdered in Dagestan, a bomb defused in Kabardino-Balkaria, a suicide car bomb in Makhachkala and today mines near a railway line in North Ossetia. However, in strong contrast with their ineffectiveness when the international jihadists arrived 15 years ago, the authorities also win some: a group, together with an important leader was killed in Chechnya; another group with its leader was killed in Dagestan. The last produced a document showing payments (reportedly local extortions as well as monies from UAE, Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan). Two more were killed today in Dagestan. This is, of course, the very same war, animated by the same ideology, using the same methods and fought for the same purpose, which we see in the USA, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and around the world. It’s just being fought in a different place. But, because that place is Russia, many in the Kommentariat cannot make the connection. (And I’m not convinced that very many intelligence and security services truly understand it either).

POPULATION. The Health and Social Development Minister said that, as of 1 November, the population was 141.9 million and by 1 January it would be 15,000 to 25,000 larger than it had been the year before. The increase comes from immigration (about a third of a million) because the natural decline continues. Although at a slower rate: the birth rate is up about 3% and the death rate down about the same. The government program is having an effect at both ends of the demographic problem.

FINANCIAL CRISIS. Last week Medvedev said that Russia had passed through the worst of the global financial crisis and he anticipated modest growth in 2010. Indications suggest he is correct in thinking so.

INTERIOR MINISTRY. Medvedev has signed a decree ordering the Interior Ministry Staff to undertake reform because “there has been a recent increase in offences against law and disciplinary infractions committed by police officers”. It is reported that some of the aims are a 20% staff reduction and a review of selection procedures. Eradicating corruption – which is to say, getting it down to “normal G7” levels – will be a long, weary effort for Medvedev and his successors.

STREET THEATRE. Here we go again: “opposition” groups apply for a demonstration permit; the city refuses, claiming the location was already booked; they march there anyway; they are arrested and soon released; Western governments huff and puff. When they march where the city permits them (and what city allows anyone to demonstrate anywhere at any time?) nothing happens.

THINGS THAT AREN’T REPORTED. There are all kinds of projects in Russia that don’t get much mention. Two items caught my eye recently: an upgrade of the control system for Russia’s railways and the “modernity” of the ambulance in this photo. Not all of Russia’s new money is being spent on yachts and fast cars.

PEOPLE POWER. There was a blow to the opposition to Gazprom’s proposed high-rise in St Petersburg when the city council voted against holding a referendum on its construction.

GAS. Gazprom has announced that Belarus will be charged about $168 tcm in the first quarter of 2010 (up from 2009’s average price of US$150 tcm). Meanwhile Russia and Turkmenistan have agreed on gas supplies at the European price level (last year’s price was about US$300 tcm).

CUSTOMS UNION. As of Friday, Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus have begun using common customs tariffs. It is planned to introduce a common customs space in July and a single economic space in January 2012.

UKRAINIAN ELECTION. The last poll before the presidential election on the 17th shows Yanukovych leading comfortably (about 30%), Tymoshenko second (about 20%) and Yushchenko far behind. Therefore, Yanukovych will not likely win on the first round but will presumably on the second against Tymoshenko on 7 February. I would suggest that any other result would be prima facie evidence of severe cheating, given that these polling results have held for the past couple of years. I wonder who really won in 2004.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

REALITY BITES. NATO, having enjoyed a decade of expanding and ignoring Russia’s concerns, now finds itself, in the person of its Secretary-General, asking Moscow for help. Rasmussen was in Moscow looking for weapons and training to support NATO’s efforts in Afghanistan. Too bad the people in NATO didn’t listen harder in 2000 and early 2001, when Putin and Ivanov were warning about the common enemy. While Moscow certainly has no desire to see a jihadist-controlled Afghanistan, it has no reason to trust NATO which has failed to keep any of its promises to it. What can NATO offer Moscow in return? Will it make a binding declaration that there will be no more expansion? Can it, filled as it now is with new members who regard it as nothing but an anti-Russia organisation? It’s not surprising that Rasmussen left without any commitments. Just asking is not going to do the trick: NATO must acknowledge the mistrust it has built up.

NIGHTCLUB FIRE. Earlier in the month a fire in a nightclub in Perm killed about 150 people. The fire began when fireworks set off inside (!) ignited the place and the fire exits turned out to be locked. Sergey Shoygu, the long-time head of the Emergency Ministry, reported that inspectors “had turned a blind eye to the discrepancies for many years”. The disaster has sparked inspections throughout Russia and a list of 80 deficient Moscow clubs was published yesterday; 8 have been closed. No doubt more will follow.

YEVLOYEV DEATH. A court in the Ingush Republic sentenced Ibragim Yevloyev, the police officer who killed Magomed Yevloyev, to two years in prison upon conviction on accidental homicide charges.

GLONASS. Three more satellites were successfully launched on Monday. There are now 22 in orbit, enough to cover Russia and, with another two, to provide world-wide coverage. But the program is behind schedule and there are reported to be problems with the satellites.

GAYDAR. Yegor Gaydar died yesterday at the young age of 54. His role in the initial changes in the early 1990s will be hotly debated for years, particularly the removal of price controls. The empty stores that had characterised the later Gorbachev period filled up quickly but horrific inflation wiped out everyone’s savings. His actions remain unpopular today.

CAUCASIAN RUMOURS OF WARS. In the last few weeks the authorities have been having some successes but the jihadists struck back this week: two bombs in a gas pipeline in Ingushetia were defused; a Dagestan imam was wounded in a shooting, and in the Ingush Republic, a car bomb yesterday killed two in Nazran, and a suicide car bomb today wounded several. Something, come to think of it, NATO might pay more attention to.

IRAQ. A consortium of LUKoil (85%) and StatoilHydro (15%) has won an auction to develop the large (estimated at 12.88 billion barrels) West Qurna-2 oil field in Basra province, Iraq. The consortium expects to produce 1.8 million barrels per day.

PIPELINE. The Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan-China gas pipeline was officially opened on Monday. It is planned to pump 40 billion cubic meters annually in a couple of years of Turkmenistan gas to China.

STALIN. Evidently there is some sort of Stalinist revival in New York: a letter written by him sold for US$12,500 at Sotheby’s New York.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

PUTIN PHONE-IN. On Saturday, Putin gave another marathon phone-in session (Eng) (Russ). As befits the Prime Minister’s job, everything was domestic (except for a bit about the WTO and the Jackson-Vanik amendment). The discussion was very detailed and, as ever, many questions were of the nature “My roof leaks, can you fix it?” My favourite bit was the presenter’s observation: “We have a lot of messages which quote the local authorities as saying: ‘We hear that Putin has promised it to you, so go and ask Putin’”. To which Putin replied: “Well, if you have such facts, let me know while we are on the air and we will sort out [мы разберемся] the people who give such answers.” Still a long way to go. And, once again he refused to give any indication of future plans. Here is his reason: “The biggest mistake would be to adjust our current work based on the interests of future election campaigns… When you start thinking about your ratings or about what you should do in the interests of future election campaigns, you will immediately feel tied to that and unable to make decisions some of which may be unpleasant but important for the economy and ultimately for the people.” Neither he nor Medvedev (nor Mr X) will ever say anything different before the event.

RUSSIA AND CLIMATEGATE. A few days ago articles in the UK media appeared intimating that the “Climategate” documents had been hacked/forged/whatevered by the Russian security services. Others have picked it up. The gist of the argument seemed to be that they were placed by the leaker on a server in Russia, that Russia has a lot of oil and that Russia is generally a sinister place (see van Ypersele’s comment in particular). The story collapses quickly – if they were clever enough to do it, they wouldn’t have leaked it from a Russian server.

HUMAN RIGHTS. Medvedev met with the Human Rights Ombudsman Vladimir Lukin yesterday who informed him that “the number of complaints has increased by a little more than 10 percent” December to December. The biggest increase (47%) concerned children’s rights; housing rights was next with a 42% and third was employment rights, up 20%. Medvedev expressed concern. The point of these rather wooden public exchanges, of course, is so that the populace can see them and understand that the President is behind them. (But “so go and ask Medvedev… ).

BULAVA LAUNCH FAILURE. Yesterday saw the seventh failure of this SLBM out of 12 launches. See “Strange lights over Norway”.

START. The treaty expired on Saturday but Medvedev and Obama stated they are working towards a new treaty and will observe the old in the meantime. Agreement is reported to be very close.

CAUCASIAN RUMOURS OF WARS. The FSB claimed that, so far this year, security forces had prevented 81 terrorist attacks in the North Caucasus this year and arrested 782 “members of illegal armed groups”.

INDIAN REACTOR. The USSR signed an agreement to build an NPP in Kudankulam, India, in 1988 but little happened until 1998. The head of RosAtom head has just said that the first reactor should start up in 2010. A somewhat faster rate of work than at Bushehr, where the Russian contract to finish what the Germans had begun was signed four years earlier. (Although Moscow has just promised to finish Bushehr “on time” – but “on time” has proved to be a flexible measurement).

UKRAINE ELECTION. Polls agree (here’s another) that, with about five weeks to go, Yanukovych is well ahead of Tymoshenko and President Yushchenko is far at the back. Indications therefore are that Yanukovych will head the first vote and beat Tymoshenko in the run-off. Either way, it’s probable that the NATO obsession, which has contributed to Ukraine’s political paralysis since the “Orange revolution”, will now stop.

MOLDOVA. In Moldova, the parliament chooses the head of state with 61 of 101 votes. The current dominant coalition (Alliance for European Integration) has 53 seats. Parliament again failed to elect someone (the Alliance nominated the same candidate who had been rejected last month). Neither side seems to be much inclined to compromise. The danger here is that some of the members of the Alliance, in former times at least, were in favour of Moldova’s joining Romania. This was the spark that set off war in the largely Slavic territory of Transdnestr (which was not part of Romania in the first place, having been added to territory gained from Romania in 1940 when Stalin created the Moldavian SSR). An idea altogether better forgotten at present.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

RUSSIA AND EUROPE. Readers will know that since the Ossetia war I have been predicting a change in European attitudes towards Russia. My argument is that many there have realised what a bill of goods they were sold about Saakashvili, Georgia and Russia (to say nothing about the gas supply problem) and will therefore be re-considering their ideas about Russia’s alleged hostility. Some more indications: Medvedev seems to have had a fruitful visit to France and I would expect similar results when he visits Italy today. Furthermore, it appears that his ideas on a new security treaty (Russ, Eng) are at least being listened to rather than dismissed as they first were. And, interestingly enough, Berlusconi just visited Belarus signalling the end of the shunning of “Europe’s last dictator”.

NATO EXPANSION. Russians have been saying NATO promised not to expand. Are they right? Apparently.

IRAN. Russia’s representative on the IAEA voted with Western countries to criticise Tehran for its nuclear program. Ahmadinejad was not best pleased. So, Bushehr delayed, no SS-300s and now this.

DEMOGRAPHICS. More gradual improvements are reported as births continue to increase and deaths decrease. One analyst expects that, at present rates, the two rates will cross over in 18 months or so. A rather large drop (even suspiciously so – there is a mild anti-alcohol campaign on) in alcohol consumption is reported.

CW. The Foreign Ministry has announced that so far, Russia has destroyed 45% of its CW stocks in line with its obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention. All are supposed to be gone by 2012.

GAS. At their meeting a couple of weeks ago, Tymoshenko promised Putin that Ukraine would fulfill all its commitments. Gazprom is estimating a price next year of US$280 tcm with a reduced supply – it and Naftohaz agreed to cut gas deliveries by 35% in 2010. Then Medvedev said that Belarus’s price would be 30-40% lower than for EU states in 2010. For comparison, Germany was paying about $230 tcm in October; but it pays a fluctuating price which, a year earlier was $576 tcm. Russia is still subsidising its neighbours. But to a lesser degree than before.

MAGNITSKIY. The lawyer for Hermitage Capital Management, Sergey Magnitskiy died in prison in Moscow where he had been held on a tax dispute for a year. Medvedev ordered an investigation on the 24th. A consequence it appears of Russia’s brutal pre-trial detention rules and the appalling condition of the ancient and overcrowded prison. For what it’s worth, the prosecutors say he was involved in a scheme to illegally buy and sell Gazprom stock.

ZAKONIKI. A year or so ago I joked that, given Medvedev’s utterances about “legal nihilism”, the Kommentariat would stop talking about the siloviki and start talking about the sinister zakoniki behind him. Well, it hasn’t happened, but Russia’s top courts and RIA-Novosti have announced a program to “provide prompt and objective coverage of the Russian judiciary and legal system”.

RUSSIA INC. As of 20 November, Russia’s international reserves were up again to US$443.8 billion. GDP fell 8% year-on-year in October but has been inching up over the last five months. Foreign investment is way down however; that decline is, of course, not just because of Russia’s actions and events.

HISTORY WARS. For those among you who read Russian, here is a site with a lot of Russian historical documents. Evidently part of Medvedev’s Get the History Right project.

TERRORISM. A bomb derailed the Nevskiy Express on the 27th, killing a number of people. The police are tending to suspect jihadists. On the 20th a priest was murdered in his church, there may be a similar connection. Another bomb on a railway line in Dagestan failed to do damage.

STATUES. The Lenin statue in Kiev that was vandalised in June has been restored and re-erected. Does that mean that Leninism has returned to Kiev? And Moscow’s Worker and Collective Farm Woman statue has been re-erected after a long renovation.

THINGS YOU WON’T HEAR. A poll in the Czech Republic poll shows 80% of the respondents happy with Obama’s decision to stop the missile deployment. A poll in Poland just after the decision also showed approval. Clearly a gap between certain politicians and the population here.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

MEDVEDEV SPEECH. Last week Medvedev gave the annual Presidential address to Parliament. (Russ) (Eng). The principle theme was “modernisation”: “Today we are talking about modernisation – this is the essential aspect of my Address today – about our desire to be modern.” His definition: “A truly modern society is the one that seeks constant renewal, continuous evolutionary transformation of social practices, democratic institutions, visions of the future, assessments of the present, the one engaged in gradual but irreversible changes in technological, economic and cultural spheres, the steady improvement of the quality of life.” He understands that this involves a major psychic change: “Instead of an archaic society in which the leaders think and decide for everyone we will become a society of clever, free and responsible people” and “we ourselves will change too”. These speeches are made annually (the Constitution requires them, Art 84.f) and I am interested that, for practically the first time, the Kommentariat appears to have actually read the speech rather than skimmed it looking for some phrase it can twist into a threat. But old blinders are still on as many commentators spun it as a criticism of Putin, because they never bothered to read Putin’s speeches. Here from Putin’s speech in 2004 (the first I looked at): “We want high living standards and a safe, free and comfortable life. We want a mature democracy and a developed civil society… We are interested in further integration of the Russian economy into the international economy.” What many people cannot imagine is that this is a long-term project carried out by a team. Putin stabilised things; Medvedev is to modernise things. But it’s the same project. The doing of it, is, of course, the problem. It will be neither easy nor short. Nor entirely successful.

IRAN. The Bushehr NPP will not start this year as planned and the Iranian Defence Minister complains that Moscow has not fulfilled its promise to supply S-300 SAMs. Medvedev stated that Moscow and Washington could use “other means” if the talks on Iran’s nuclear program yield no results. Clearly a developing story.

LITVINENKO DEATH. German prosecutors have dropped their investigation of Dmitriy Kovtun because of lack of evidence. Is this the beginning of the end of this flimsy case? Readers who think there is a case against Lugovoy are invited to read this piece by US reporter Edward Jay Epstein.

TIME ZONES. One of Medvedev’s suggestions was to “examine the possibility of reducing the number of time zones”. This struck me as strange until I looked at a map which shows some rather curious divisions: there appear to be two spots in Siberia where, by merely turning around, one can be in three time zones.

CORRUPTION. Medvedev said “We need to take some very strong measures to cleanse the ranks of police and special services and rid them of the unworthy.” A policemen in Novorossiysk made a YouTube recording on corruption in the police force. The Interior Ministry has promised an investigation. Here’s Medvedev’s chance.

GOVERNORS. Russia has fiddled around with the method of choosing regional governors and we have just had the newest idea carried out. The dominant party in each region nominates three candidates, the President picks one and the legislature approves (or not). Eduard Rossel has been Governor of Sverdlovsk Oblast since 1995. He was duly nominated but Medvedev picked Aleksandr Misharin, deputy transport minister. It is rather probable that Rossel, controlling the resources he does, would have been re-elected so this method at least allows for new blood occasionally.

BUS ACCIDENTS. The head of the traffic police says that more than 5000 people have been killed or injured in driver-caused bus accidents in the first 9 months of 2009. Here is a film of one man lucky enough not to be.

HAPPINESS. A VTsIOM poll shows that about 70% of Russians say they are more happy than not. Which is another reason why they vote – those who do – for the establishment.

GAS GAMES. On Monday Russia and the EU signed a memorandum designed to avert another supply crisis. Right on cue, Ukrainian President Yushchenko started complaining about the existing deal. Readers are reminded that there is an election in Ukraine in which the President and PM are pitted against each other and that it was PM Tymoshenko who negotiated the existing deal. Blaming Tymoshenko, Yushchenko says the IMF has declined the latest tranche of its loan to Ukraine. There may be gas interruptions this winter, but they won’t be Moscow’s doing.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

ELECTION FRAUD. Two opinion polls, both by Levada, give us data on how people say they voted in the elections last month. A poll of Muscovites (JRL/201/4) gives 46.1% for United Russia (official numbers 66.25%), 27.1% for the communists (13.3%), 11.8% for LDPR (6.13%), 7.9% for Just Russia (5.33%) and 3.7% for Yabloko (4.71%). A nation-wide poll asking the same question gives United Russia 47%, communists 13%, Just Russia 8%, LDPR 7% and Yabloko 2%. When the Yabloko leader said his vote hadn’t been counted at all, a recount was ordered and, lo! it was found that some Yabloko votes had “accidently” been miscounted. But these numbers do not give us a clear picture. Levada tells us that Muscovites voted communist at twice the rate of the nation; this seems improbable. Levada also tells us that fewer people voted for Yabloko than the official numbers give; this too seems improbable if the scenario were to inflate United Russia’s numbers and deflate the others. So, as always, an examination of the data we have deepens the mystery. The Yabloko leader has described what his people told him and it appears that fake voters was the preferred method. Medvedev met with the head of the CEC and said “All types of claims must be investigated thoroughly”. Well, we’ll see. These numbers make a prima facie cause for fraud favouring the pedestal party but leave us in the dark as to what degree of fraud there was.

STALINSHCHINA. Last Friday was the Remembrance Day of Victims of Political Repression and Medvedev made an address on his video blog. “It is impossible to imagine now the scale of terror which affected all the peoples of our country and peaked in the years 1937-1938… For twenty years before the World War II entire strata and classes of our society were eliminated… millions of people died as a result of terror and false accusations – millions… But even today you can still hear voices claiming that those innumerable victims were justified for some higher national purpose. I believe that no national progress, successes or ambitions can develop at the price of human misery and loss… But it is equally important not to sanction, under the guise of restoring historical justice, any justification of those who destroyed our people.” The Kommentariat will either ignore this or try and spin it into a difference between Medvedev and Putin (despite the latter’s similar remarks at the Butovo Memorial two years ago).

OPEL. The GM Board of Directors has voted to keep Opel, thereby blocking the Russian-Canadian offer to buy it; but workers in the Opal plants in Europe are not happy.

MARKELOV MURDER. It is reported that one of the suspects has confessed.

North Caucasus. More violence in the last two weeks but the authorities have done better: an assassination attempt on Kadyrov was said to have been prevented and the instigator killed, another senior “emir” was killed in Chechnya; “militants” were killed in Dagestan. Two suicide bombers were stopped in Groznyy. The Chechnya Interior Minister says that 144 “militants” have been killed since April, 118 of them in Chechnya. On the other hand, the imam of a village mosque in Dagestan was murdered (murder of Muslim clerics who oppose Wahhabism is an important jihadist tactic).

UKRAINE. Readers are reminded that there is a rather vicious election campaign in Ukraine in which President Yushchenko, whose ratings are very low, and PM Tymoshenko are rivals. It would be wise to regard all statements by either as part of that campaign. Yushchenko will be campaigning as the man who stands up to Russia and would like a crisis to prove it; Putin reports that Tymoshenko told him that he was blocking payments for Russian gas supplies. Tymoshenko will be campaigning as the person who can get things done and she has ordered a 3-week closure of schools and cinemas because of the H1N1 flu. Yushchenko then appealed for international help (including from NATO!). Yanukovych, the favourite, so far has been silent. He will no doubt be campaigning as the man Ukrainians should have picked in the first place.

GEORGIA. Two more reasons to be happy that Georgia is not in NATO. International PEN says that “mass media in Georgia is under strict censorship” and “government controlled broadcasting organisations are led by companies that are themselves part of the government administration”. The newly-appointed Public Defender (his predecessor has joined the opposition) reports that the human rights situation, especially in prisons, is “grave”. Meanwhile, we discover that the Foreign Minister of Georgia has Russian citizenship! He, after a Russian Duma member tried to get him stripped of it, has decided to renounce it.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

ELECTION FRAUD. There are objective and perfectly understandable reasons for United Russia to win most elections in Russia. The population supports its leaders and, consequently, extends that support to their pedestal. In fact, Levada’s most recent numbers show United Russia with more than one and a half times as much support as all the others combined. The losers always charge vote fraud but usually it ends there. This time, the three losers, LDPR, KPRF and Just Russia actually walked out of the Duma in protest (all have now returned); there have been some small protests, the Communists are demanding the resignation of the Head of the CEC and says it will be holding rallies today. So this one has better legs (and supporting detail) than the pro-forma protests of earlier times. We will see what happens. Again, however, I stress that a consideration of polling numbers over time shows that United Russia is bound to win; cheating only determines the scale of that win (so, indeed, why do it at all?) Medvedev once murmured something about reducing the 7% threshold. I believe 7% is too high for Russia’s conditions (unless, of course, its purpose is to produce enormous United Russia majorities across the country) and it would be better to go back to the old 5% threshold. But there is no “correct” number and there is great variation across the world.

IRAN. Negotiations between Russia, the USA, France and Iran in Vienna have produced a draft agreement according to which Iran will export uranium to Russia for enrichment; it will then go to France for final processing for use in the Iranian reactor. But, Tehran is baulking at France’s involvement, or perhaps not, or maybe there’s more going on. I also notice that the Russian defence industry is warning that Russia will lose “billions” if the S-300 sale is dropped. They wouldn’t be saying this if they didn’t fear that it might be. Things are developing.

CUSTOMS UNION. We are told that the long-announced, and long-delayed, Customs Union between Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus will launch on 1 January.

STATE OWNERSHIP. Another strong hint from Medvedev that the state will sell off some of its holdings.

GLONASS. It is said that the 18 satellites necessary for full coverage of Russia are operating but there seems to be a problem with the next 6 necessary for world-wide coverage. A launch of 3 was again delayed.

ECONOMY. It is reported that GDP grew 0.6% quarter-on-quarter; this would be the first growth in more than a year. Overall, it declined 9.4% year-on-year.

RUSSIA-EU. Russia and the EU have begun negotiating a new partnership and cooperation agreement. The last agreement expired in 2007 but was automatically extended.

PRESS FREEDOM. Reporters Without Borders in its latest report puts Russia at 153rd in press freedom. I don’t take this organisation very seriously: one of its biggest concerns is deaths of reporters and it’s clear that it uses different standards for Russia: almost any reporter who dies is counted. And Georgia has improved 39 places!

GAS. Yerevan and Gazprom are negotiating new gas prices. Unnoticed by most of the Kommentariat, which obsesses on the notion that Moscow uses gas prices as a weapon against its “enemies”, Armenia, generally considered “friendly” to Moscow, has also had its price put up. Until March 2009 it paid US$110 tcm (then a common price for Moscow’s former USSR customers); it had a price rise to US$154 tcm from April 2009 to March 2010; the price was then expected to rise to US$200 tcm. But, with the fall of energy prices, Yerevan is hoping to sign for US$180. It is Moscow’s long-repeated aim to get them all up to European prices. None of them is yet and to that extent, Moscow/Gazprom continues to subsidise its neighbours.

UKRAINE. On Monday the Presidential election campaign officially opened in Ukraine. Preliminary indications suggest a very dirty campaign is coming. Current polls show Yanukovych well out in front at about 25%, Tymoshenko about ten points behind and Yatsenyuk about 5 points behind her. President Yushchenko is well at the bottom. Tymoshenko has hired Obama’s strategists. What an interesting end to the “Orange Revolution” it would be if Yanukovych, reviled by the Kommentariat as “Moscow’s stooge” were elected. But four years of the NATO obsession has exacerbated Ukraine’s divisions and taken attention away from its true problems.

GEORGIA. A train carrying fuel was bombed in Svanetia. I may be reading too much into this but the Svans are another of Georgia’s restive minorities and Tbilisi has still not caught Emzar Kvitsiani. Something to watch.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

REGIONAL ELECTIONS. Elections were held across Russia on Sunday and, as usual, United Russia dominated the results. The losing parties have charged fraud and walked out of the Duma on Wednesday in protest. What are we to make of this? It is very likely there was a degree of fraud, both from the top of the power pyramid and from the bottom. But there are objective reasons for the domination of United Russia. It is the party in power and the population has showed, in innumerable opinion polls, that it approves of the people in power; approval of Medvedev and Putin is easily transferred to their pedestal party. Some opposition parties have been led by the same people for 15 years: why should anyone decide that Zhirinovskiy and Zyuganov, who have been rejected time and time again, suddenly have the answers? As to the others, Yabloko, while it has a new leader, marginalised itself by its repeated refusal to collaborate with like-minded people, Just Russia has never really got off the ground and Other Russia is a stunt for Western naïfs. Therefore, in my opinion, fraud, pressure and the like can account for the margin of victory but not for the victory itself. The Russian “opposition” has found a comfortable niche which is personally profitable to its leaders while United Russia gets things done. Not an ideal situation to be sure, but one which many hands have made.

ECONOMIC CRISIS. In an interview Medvedev admitted, as he has before, that “the real damage to our economy was far greater than anything predicted by ourselves, the World Bank, and other expert organisations” and that unemployment is worse than expected. He believed the government had made some correct decisions especially in supporting banks and maintaining the level of social welfare payments. As before, he stressed the need to modernise the economy: “You know, whether we’re in a crisis or not in a crisis, we can safely say that the economic challenge facing us is the same: we need to modernise the economy.” And that won’t be soon: “Not a year, not two, not three, but maybe 10-15 years – that is a perfectly plausible time frame in which to create a new economy, an economy that will be competitive with other major world economies”.

TODAY’S FLAVOURED HEADLINE. “Statistics Chief Claims Number Shenanigans”; quotation from piece: “At least they don’t tell us how to monitor. They don’t try to manipulate figures.” Sheesh!

CLINTON VISIT. Reports suggest reasonably amicable meetings; details no doubt will come out evebtually.

IRAN. Medvedev has said that Moscow is against “the extension of the nuclear club” and this was echoed by the Chair of the Security Council. Moscow remains opposed to more sanctions, saying it sees them as ineffective. Or right now this minute anyway. Clinton is quoted as saying “I believe if sanctions become necessary, we will have support from Russia”.

MILITARY DOCTRINE. Yet another version is on the way and it, like its predecessors (I can’t quite remember – I’ve lost count of them – but certainly in 2000 and 2003) will say that a nuclear first strike is possible. I do not understood why Moscow feels it necessary to spell out the obvious: it would be much better advised to imitate NATO’s formless language: “Nuclear weapons make a unique contribution in rendering the risks of any aggression incalculable and unacceptable. Thus, they remain essential to preserve peace.”

PEOPLE POWER. A poll shows half its residents oppose a skyscraper in St Petersburg. We shall see whether their wishes continue to be ignored. The Governor, who approved it last month, now appears to be backtracking.

TBILISI AND JIHADISTS. The FSB Director says that evidence has been found that Georgian authorities are collaborating with and training jihadists who then go to the North Caucasus; Tbilisi has denied it. But the last time the Russians said that there were jihadists in Georgia, Tbilisi denied and denied until 2003 when it finally admitted the truth of Moscow’s statements. So, in my opinion, the Russian accusation should not be dismissed.

GEORGIA. The Labour Party promises revelations about Saakashvili’s corruption and has urged Washington to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the financial involvement of some US officials in “bankrolling” the “Rose Revolution”. Zurabishvili says a new wave of protests will begin 7 Nov. Meanwhile Tbilisi is irritating Berlin with its accusations that Germans involved in the EU report were bought by Moscow.

ARMENIA-TURKEY. The agreement was signed in Zurich on Saturday after a last-minute delay. I expect this success of multilateral patient diplomacy to bear fruit on the Karabakh problem eventually.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

MISSILE DEFENCE. Medvedev has formally announced, after some confusion (again!) from various spokesmen, that the deployment of Iskander Missiles to Kaliningrad has been cancelled (they never were actually deployed – it was always conditional). Yesterday the Foreign Minister Lavrov said that the new US plans presented no risks for Russia, good conditions were present for dialogue and that Moscow and Washington would soon hold talks on missile defence. Of course: Moscow was concerned when the idea was to stop ICBMs, but defence against medium- and short- range missiles doesn’t bother it. On the other hand, Russia’s UN Ambassador said that it would complicate nuclear disarmament. I have often wished the Russian Foreign Ministry would get a better grip on its people and stop this dribble of confusing and partially contradictory statements. Mind you, NATO’s no better: it is asking for help while encouraging Tbilisi’s NATO aspirations. What message will any of the suspicious people out there take from these pairs of statements?

EU REPORT. The report was published last week. It is probably not a coincidence that the next day PACE rejected Tbilisi’s motion to deprive Russia of voting rights. Nino Burjanadze has accused the government of covering up the report; while Saakashvili has hailed it as complete vindication some Georgians are claiming that Russian money is to be found there. I regard it as rather little, rather late, naïve and incomplete; my argument is here. But at least it knows who started the war.

SSNs. It was announced that by the end of next year, RosAtom will have dismantled 191 out of 198 decommissioned nuclear submarines; at the moment it has destroyed 166.

SAYANO-SHUSHENSKAYA HEP ACCIDENT. RosTekhNadzor has announced the result of its enquiry. Terrorist attack has been ruled out but a full slate of blame is laid: design, operation, repair and lack of training. Anatoliy Chubays, head of the electricity monopoly 1998 to 2008, is taking some of the blame.

LOANS. The Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin has said that Moscow will not disburse the remaining US$500 million (of a US$2 billion) loan to Belarus and will not lend Ukraine US$5 billion; he added, however, that Moscow fully supported IMF actions. The reason given was that Moscow should assess the chance of repayment. Given that Ukraine has already received US$10.6 billion of a US$16.4 billion IMF loan and Belarus received US$2.46 billion with another billion likely on its way, this may be a prudent decision. It’s not shortage of money: Russia has plenty in the kitty (the Reserve Fund is US$76.37 billion, National Welfare Fund US$91.86 billion and international reserves of more than US$400 billion).

DE-NATIONALISATION. The Finance Minister said that the government intends to sell the shares in companies that it purchased during the crisis. The only timeframe he gave was “the medium term”.

THINGS YOU WON’T HEAR ABOUT. Last week customs officers in Krasnodar claimed to have prevented an attempt to smuggle MiG-29 components to Syria. Russian rescue teams arrived in Sumatra on Sunday in response to Wednesday’s earthquake.

KARABAKH. Maybe (maybe) some movement here. An Azerbaijanian official is quoted as saying that Armenia and Azerbaijan should be able to use the Lachin Corridor jointly. Access from Armenia to Karabakh would have to be part of any genuine settlement. Meanwhile the Turkish PM is quoted as saying that Ankara and Yerevan will be signing an agreement on Saturday re-opening the border and establishing relations. I believe that Ankara could play a very important part in resolving the Karabakh issue. One of the lessons of the South Ossetia war is that these gifts of Stalin’s cartographical skills should not be left to fester.

TRANSDNESTR. Speaking of Stalin’s cartography, with the coming to power in Moldova of politicians who at one time or another called for Moldova’s absorption into Romania (the casus belli of the Transdnestr wars), it is prudent to look at that issue. And the mediators (Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE) did call for the resumption of talks. There is a doable solution that has been floating around – high autonomy for Transdnestr with the option to secede should Moldova join Romania – and hopefully it just needs some pressure to make it happen. The last thing we need is more nonsense about how it’s all Moscow’s doing. But, again, the “Georgia lesson” is, I believe, gradually sinking in.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

ELECTION FEVER. Recent remarks by Medvedev and Putin have set off a Kommentariat feeding frenzy of will-they-won’t-they run again. I’m tired of this analytical bankruptcy: there is more happening in Russia than can be reduced to the actions of a few people at the top of the power pyramid. But, more importantly, it is unreflective. Neither Medvedev nor Putin is ever going to say out loud whether and for what position he is going to stand in the future. If, for example, Putin were to say he was tired of working like a “galley slave” and would open a fishing lodge in Yakutia in the new year, there would be immediate upheaval in the bureaucracy and power structure as kratotropic timeservers sought a new power source to connect to. The Russian government is not so well-structured and stable that it can smoothly hum away on its own while the men at the top change. There is also a stubborn inability to observe. Putin never signalled personnel changes in advance. I commend three case studies: the replacement of Sergeyev by Ivanov as Defence Minister, the replacement of Vyakhirev by Miller at Gazprom and the blessing of Medvedev as President. There were no hints: he never gave away his thinking, but when he thought he had the right man, he acted. It is too early to see whether Medvedev follows the same modus operandi, but I would be surprised if he didn’t. And if the two should ever doubt the wisdom of keeping quiet about their intentions, all they have to do is observe the political paralysis in their immediate neighbour caused by the open hostility between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko. Continuing speculation about whether Putin will become President betrays a refusal to comprehend that, had he wanted to, he could be President right now: the question is not “will he or won’t he?” but “why didn’t he?”. Finally, it should be noticed that the will-he-won’t-he obsession of the Kommentariat now involves two people: to that extent Russia has advanced in political pluralism.

MV ARCTIC SEA. A spokesman for Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office says no “compromising” cargo has been found on the ship. The theory that it was carrying missiles to Iran is inherently improbable: it would have been far easier to put them on a train to the Caspian and ship them direct to Iran. But, probability is often ignored when it’s about Russia.

TOILETS. Yulia Latynina, who evidently hasn’t heard that there is no press freedom in Russia, has written (another) piece attacking the system: Medvedev is Putin’s “obedient sidekick” and Russia is “completely ungovernable”. I don’t know why she feels she has to use such absolute terms: completely ungovernable?

CORRUPTION. It is reported that criminal charges have been laid against a company for faking the age of replacement parts for the MiG-29s which Algeria rejected last year. The Defence Minister has ordered a probe into corruption charges, reported by Novaya Gazeta, against the Airborne Troops commander.

CASPIAN OIL. LUKoil has announced that it plans to start extracting oil from the Russian sector next spring.

MUSLIM CLERIC MURDERED. On Sunday, Ismail Haji Bostanov, the deputy chairman of the Spiritual Board of Muslims of the Karachay-Cherkess Republic and former Rector of the Karachay-Cherkess Republic Muslim Institute, was assassinated. He was a strong opponent of Wahhabism, describing them in 2001 as “doing their utmost to spread hatred of mankind”. The murder of influential Muslim opponents is an important tactic of the international jihad.

YUSHCHENKO POISONING. Readers will recall the mysterious affliction suffered by Viktor Yushchenko in 2004 which was diagnosed as dioxin poisoning caused by “unknown opponents” (nudge-nudge wink-wink). Apart from the inherent improbability of poisoning someone with something that might kill him in 20 years, I have been struck with the fact that, despite Yushchenko’s being President for four and a half years, we have heard nothing more about it. Or perhaps not: a Ukrainian parliamentary commission; inspired by the conclusions of a prosecutor who alleges that his blood samples had dioxin added to them in the USA and implicated his wife in the fraud, wants an official inquiry. I doubt we will learn more as long as Yushchenko is President.

ANOTHER. Sozar Subari, the former Public Defender, has joined the Georgian opposition. There’s been another leak that the long-delayed EU report will not be to Saakashvili’s liking. The opposition may be re-activated by it when it (supposedly) comes out next week. Saakashvili is preparing its reception by suggesting that Moscow bought the commission.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)