THE THIRD TURN. Earlier this week Medvedev was in France talking with Sarkozy and Merkel. It doesn’t look as if anything much was decided but it was another step in Europe’s change of attitude towards Russia, moving into what I call the “third turn” (during the 1990s Russia was seen as a backward younger brother and, from 2000-2008, as an enemy). From the press conference. Sarkozy: “We are certain that Russia, Germany and France share common positions in many respects”; “we live in a new world, a world of friendship between Russia and Europe.” Merkel: “we need to put relations between Russia and NATO on a rational track. After all, we face some of the same threats in the world today.” “Rational” – interesting choice of word: are we to assume the previous policy was irrational? The subject of Georgia came up and Sarkozy said: “At the same time, Georgia also should make a commitment not to use force. It would be good if our Russian friends agreed to the presence of European observers on these territories.” Medvedev said he would attend next month’s NATO summit. The next day Medvedev said that those in Russia who thought of NATO was hostile to Russia were making a mistake. No news here, by the way: NATO’s behaviour is officially regarded as a danger – ie not yet a threat – and Russian military deployments show no fear of attack from the west. But, nonetheless, it’s a change of flavour: looking at it from the other side as it were. The NATO summit might, therefore, actually contribute something to stability.

LEGAL REFORM. Something important that I missed was the recent separation of the Investigation Committee from the Prosecutor General’s Office. Potentially a significant move in Medvedev’s campaign to reduce “legal nihilism”, it is analysed by Gordon Hahn here.

VENEZUELA. Venezuelan President Chavez was in Moscow last week. Putin announced that Russia will sell some more tanks to Venezuela – adding to several billion dollar’s worth of weapons deals. This seems to be to be very short-sighted on Moscow’s part: what do you suppose the chances that it will be paid for these deals in the end? And tanks are an offensive weapon and therefore destabilising. But, perhaps it’s payment for Caracas recognising South Ossetia and Abkhazia (which doesn’t, to my mind, make it a less stupid decision).

MOSCOW. On Friday Medvedev nominated Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Sobyanin (Rus bio) to be Mayor of Moscow. He is a long-time member of The Team, having been Head of the Presidential Administration and has a good deal of administrative experience. He is another lawyer – the zakoniki extend their grip on Russia! But he is not a Muscovite which will no doubt cause some problems in that proud (arrogant?) city.

THE FARCE. Lev Ponomaryov has said – are these first fruits of the post-Luzhkov era? – that the Moscow City authorities have permitted the opposition to hold a rally on Sunday at Pushkin Square. It’s time to stop the farce and someone had to move first. Will the protesters, now that they have got a venue (and apparently another) they have often asked for, play by the rules or will they try to create another incident?

CENSUS. Russia has begun a census; it will show that the population decline is greatly reduced and, perhaps, even recently reversed with immigration.

PRIVATISATION. First Deputy PM Igor Shuvalov (another lawyer!) says the government is contemplating privatising or selling significant ownership in about 900 enterprises. The final decisions haven’t been made but all this is in accordance with Medvedev’s policy of loosening control.

SOUTH OSSETIA. On Tuesday Russian troops withdrew from Perevi. This village, in Georgia proper, controlled a road connecting one part of South Ossetia to another. The Russians built a by-pass road. This means nothing at all, despite some excitement in Georgia and in Europe: Russian troops will not be leaving South Ossetia and the Ossetians don’t want them to. Commentators would be better advised to try to understand why Ossetians and Abkhazians do not want to be part of any Georgia that they have seen since Stalin and Beria put them in it.

GEORGIA. Parliament has passed the new constitution which will transfer power to the PM. Given that many see this as a means by which Saakashvili will retain power by becoming PM when his term as President expires, I look forward to Saakashvili’s shills in the West explaining that this is much more democratic than anything seen in Russia.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

UK-RUSSIA. The British Foreign Secretary visited Moscow yesterday with the intention of improving relations. There are two principal irritants: the UK gives shelter to Berezovskiy and Zakayev, both of whom Moscow wants for various crimes and the UK wants Lugovoy in connection with the Litvinenko death (although the one Western reporter who has seen the evidence the British supplied is scornful of it). If anything actually comes of this apparent attempt to mend relations, Berezovskiy might be advised to start packing his bags.

DEFENCE SPENDING. A Russian newspaper quotes the Chairman of the Duma Defence Committee on planned spending for the Armed Forces. Including R&D, this year’s will be US$16.3 billion, rising to $38.8 billion in 2013. The money will be spread around: new ICBMs and SLBMs (the Bulava finally had a successful test), fighter aircraft, ships for the Black Sea Fleet and command-and-control systems for the Ground Forces (the last two are lessons learned in the Ossetia war). 13-15% will be reserved for modernising existing equipment.

HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL. Mikhail Fedotov, secretary of the Union of Journalists, was appointed head of the civil society and human rights council yesterday; his predecessor said she was pleased with the choice. He says his three priorities are: “de-Stalinisation of social consciousness”, judicial and police reform and protecting the rights of children and the family. He is a lawyer and wrote the 1991 media law.

GRAIN CROP. The Agriculture Ministry calculates the bad summer destroyed about a third of the grain harvest. There should be enough for domestic needs but little to export. Perhaps the most unexpected effect of the Putin reforms is that Russia is now such a significant grain exporter that its problems have caused food prices everywhere to rise. 15 years ago everyone thought Russian agriculture was an utterly hopeless proposition.

PEOPLE POWER. About three thousand people in St Petersburg turned out on Saturday to protest the gigantic Okhta Centre. It is clear that Medvedev doesn’t like it either but, as someone who is pushing the rule of law, he has to abide by the process.

CASPIAN. It’s been a long time coming but LUKoil has extracted its first tanker-load of oil from the Russian end of the Caspian Sea. Endless amounts of “high-altitude” speculation about Caspian Sea oil in the 1990s but it’s all turned out fairly quietly.

BUSINESS CLIMATE. Putin quite correctly told a group of businessmen that the business climate could only improve if Russian businesses started playing by the rules: “Businesses have to maintain and improve entrepreneurial standards and social responsibility. Only in this case the government will be able to pursue the policy aimed at reducing bureaucratic barriers, including those in taxation”. No doubt some nincompoop of a commentator will spin this as a threat by the “steely-eyed” Putin.

REGIONAL ELECTION. As usual, United Russia dominated Sunday’s local elections. Given that numerous polls over many years show at least a two-thirds approval of The Team, it would be rather strange for many to vote for the Communists, Zhirinovskiy or the cloud of quarrelsome “liberal” parties.

JIHADISM. On Tuesday police announced they had arrested three people believed to have been behind the September bombing of the market in Vladikavkaz; they are said to be under Doku Umarov’s Caucasus Emirate. (The US State Department finally added Umarov to its list of “global terrorists” in June).

TROUBLE IN PARADISE. Relations between Moscow and Minsk have been sour for some time but Lukashenka has just promised to normalise relations with Russia. My guess is that Moscow doesn’t care very much and would greatly prefer to be dealing with someone else. Lukashenka has been there since 1994 and it’s time for him to leave. But he won’t.

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC. Sunday’s parliamentary elections passed off quietly and international observers were satisfied. Five parties made it into parliament; the first four within a few seats of each other. Under the new constitutional arrangement, parliament elects a prime minister who will be the effective ruler; the president will be largely ceremonial. Otunbayeva will remain Interim President until the end of next year and cannot run again. Kyrgyzstan is not there yet but this seems a better outcome than many people feared. It now remains to be seen whether the five parties can form the alliances that will be necessary to get things done.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

LUZHKOV. The storm clouds gather. There was a great deal of construction in Luzhkov’s Moscow and many contracts were won by companies controlled by his wife, Yelena Baturina, who became very wealthy. On Tuesday Finance Minister Kudrin said a quarter of his decrees, many of them dealing with construction, were signed in secret. One of his deputies has just been charged with bribery. The Russian Audit Chamber says it has numerous documents showing the city government spent budget funds inefficiently. Maybe a prosecution is being prepared. Meanwhile, still defiant, Luzhkov has said he will start his own political movement and he has been given a position at the International University in Moscow.

POLITKOVSKAYA. To recapitulate: she, a reporter who wrote a lot about atrocities in Chechnya committed by the authorities (but much less about jihadist atrocities), was murdered 4 years ago. Three men were charged but were acquitted by a jury in February 2009; a new trial was ordered in August 2009. Her murder has become a standard of the anti-Putin trope (although a bit of thinking would show he had nothing to do with it – senior policemen would hardly have been charged if he were involved). The Investigation Committee of the PGO says the investigation will be prolonged into 2011 and claims to have found new suspects. I have always thought she was murdered because she had learned some dangerous piece of “bizness” information. Contrary to common opinion, that’s the most common motive for murdering reporters in Russia. At any event, we have here the intersection of poor prosecutors and a mob hit with cutouts between the principal and the shooters.

MORTGAGES. I have been watching the gradual spread of mortgages in Russia. In the Communist days one was assigned a dwelling. Most were privatised in the Yeltsin days but to buy something else generally meant assembling hard cash. But mortgages are slowly catching on. Putin just said that the amount of money has better than doubled – from US$2.7 billion in 2009 to US$6.3 billion so far this year. As he said, giving an insight into government policy: “People are ready to invest funds to buy housing… That is why the emphasis of state policies has shifted toward stimulating the housing market.” That’s the right approach: use the government’s power to induce people to freely invest.

WTO. Moscow’s long march to WTO membership continues: the Finance Minister said Washington and Moscow had ironed out their differences. Well, be that as it may, Georgia has a veto and has said that it will use it. It is quite preposterous that Russia, the world’s 15th or so largest economy, and rising, is not a member but Burkina Faso and Zimbabwe are. Perhaps Russians can be forgiven for thinking that it’s all politics, really.

GEORGIY ARBATOV. He died on the 1st. I believe that he played a very important role in creating the intellectual basis for the realisation that the USSR had failed across the board. As a participant in the famous parade in 1941 who actually made it to Berlin, he must have thought that the rest of his life was an improbable gift.

RE-DESIGN. The statue of Columbus Peter the Great may be moved. It is one of Luzhkov’s more peculiar contributions to Moscow, courtesy of his favourite sculptor Zurab Tsereteli. All I can say, having been pretty gobsmacked when I first saw it, is that many Parisians hated the Eiffel Tower at first. But the story is another indication that Luzhkov is yesterday’s flavour.

PEOPLE POWER. SORT OF. Twelve students from MGU have posed wearing lingerie for a calendar to wish Putin a happy birthday (58 today). I doubt he’ll be amused by this publicity stunt.

RUSSIA INC. Finance Minister Kudrin expects capital outflow to be close to zero this year. An annual curse of the Yeltsin period, it hit a record high in 2008 with the twin hits of the financial crisis and Ossetian war.

LATVIA. Hitherto rather anti-Russia (despite the strong presence of Latvians in the history of Bolshevism), the international financial crisis hit it very hard. I watch its change of heart towards its (and who would have guessed it?) more economically successful big neighbour. The reparations commission is gone; President Zatlers is trying to turn the temperature down; the Economy Minister wants better relations. In Sunday’s elections, the Russophone representative coalition ran a strong second. Reality bites.

SAAKASHVILI. Kommersant reports that Georgia’s Labour Party has filed a lawsuit at The Hague against Saakashvili. The specifics of its charge are the suppression of protests and violent takeover of Imedi TV in 2007 and the attack on Tskhinvali in 2008. Bet nothing comes of it. If the report is true that is.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

LUZHKOV. Medvedev dismissed Luzhkov as mayor of Moscow on Tuesday and appointed his 1st Deputy Vladimir Resin pro tem. The reason given was that he had lost confidence in Luzhkov. Luzhkov thereupon resigned from the pedestal party. As usual, some in the Kommentariat are trying to spin this as evidence that the Duumvirate is cracking, but Putin seemed quite comfortable with the decision. So now what? I see three possibilities from Medvedev’s side. 1. Luzhkov, who is 74, is allowed to go quietly into retirement. 2. He is given some face-saving appointment. Either seems to be more likely (based on past practice) than the third which is that a corruption prosecution is opened against him, his wife or both. Putting them on trial would send a very strong signal that Medvedev is serious about corruption and that even the highest are subject to the law. (And, come to think of it, not doing so would send quite a different signal). But, any prosecution has to be transparent and competent (the last being in rather short supply among government prosecutions: vide YUKOS and Budanov). It’s a pity that it ended this way: I think Luzhkov did a great deal for his city but it would have been better had he stepped down a term ago. I believe that what’s really happening here is that the Team is forcing out those regional heads who think they own their jobs. While Kirsan Ilyumzhinov, the other recently departed leader-for-life, has his future worked out – he was just re-elected head of FIDE –Luzhkov is still grumbling and has invoked the Russian version of Godwin’s Law. Something not much noted is that there have been more name changes at the top than elsewhere: for example, in 1996 Yeltsin ran against Zhirinovskiy, Zyuganov and Yavlinskiy; in 2000 Putin ran against the three. Only the last had departed the political scene (and not at his own desire) when Medvedev ran in 2008. Luzhkov had been mayor since 1992 and Ilyumzhinov president of Kalmykia since 1993. A lot has happened since then.

POLICE. Police reform grinds along. On Sunday Interior Minister Nurgaliyev told a TV station that police recruits will have to pass a three-stage test: the traditional questionnaire, a re-evaluation and then they must find a “warrantor” (whatever that last proves to be). Regular polls will be conducted and monitored to gauge popular satisfaction with police procedures and a hot line for reporting abuses will be created.

RUSSIA INC AND THE WORLD. As an illustration of how Russian businesses are becoming connected with the rest of the world, the Sukhoy Superjet 100 involves components from at least 6 other countries.

REPORTERS. The head of the Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office has ordered a “prompt and thorough analysis of all criminal cases in which journalists are listed as victims”.

NORTH CAUCASUS. A new commission, charged with economic development and headed by Putin, has been formed. An admission that previous efforts to improve the dismal economic situation have not been effective.

YANAYEV. Gennadiy Yanayev, Gorbachev’s vice president and a leader of the August 1991 coup attempt died on Friday, aged 73. This, combined with the fact that Yeltsin’s vice president led a coup attempt against him, explains why Russia does not have a Vice President position today.

JIHADISM. The last week has had several significant operations in Dagestan with claims of success and prevention of major attacks. Kadyrov is personally leading an operation in Chechnya’s mountains (no empty boast: he’s done lots of this). I again recommend that people interested in the jihad in the North Caucasus follow Gordon Hahn’s periodic analyses here.

MOLDOVA. Moldova’s acting president dissolved parliament for elections in November. Moldova has been in a political deadlock for a year and a half with parliament unable to choose a new president. The potential danger here is that the old notion that Moldova should dissolve itself and join Romania is no longer dormant. It is a very divisive issue and has potential to destabilise things in Moldova (and Romania).

CHUTZPAH. There’s an old joke made to explain the meaning of “chutzpah”: a man, on trial for murdering his parents, pleads for mercy because he is an orphan. Here is another: “My first call is addressed to my fellow citizens of Abkhaz and Ossetian origins who live behind the New Iron Curtain that divides our common nation. I want to tell them once again: we will protect your rights. Your culture. Your history-we will work with you. We will work for you.” Ossetians and Abkhazians remember Saakashvili’s similar promise in 7 August 2008 and what followed it on 8 August.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

LUZHKOV. The number one story in Moscow these days is the future of Mayor Luzhkov. It is highly probable that the present campaign against him is blessed by the Kremlin. It is rumoured that the object is to get him to go quietly. Luzhkov is a powerful man but that’s a lot of pressure. I expect that he will “retire at his own request for personal reasons” as they used to say (vide Ilyumzhinov). There is a style to the way the Team handles these problems: Nazdratenko was ousted as governor in 2001 with the excuse of poor handling of power failures and appointed head of the State Fishing Commission (where he served at Putin’s pleasure); that pleasure ended in 2003. The Team evidently agrees with Lyndon Johnson’s advice on tents. Nazdratenko is still in the tent, but far off in the corner. What’s happening here I think (most commentators didn’t notice Ilyuzhinov’s departure) is that, bit by bit, the Team is getting rid of people who thought they had jobs for life (and, of course, who aren’t as loyal as they might be. But that’s politics and power the world over.)

BUREAUCRACY. The Finance Minister said the other day that the number of federal bureaucrats was to be reduced by 100,000 over the next 3 years. World experience shows that this is much easier to say than to do. By the way, one of the many wrong things repeated by the Kommentariat is that Russia’s bureaucracy is bigger than it was in the Communist days. Not so: they forget the enormous CPSU structure that paralleled and directed the government structure. The overall total of state functionaries is surely much lower today. There was a sort of coup that took place in the 1990s in which the local GorIspolKoms (ie “government”) took over the local GorKom (CPSU) building. This can be seen in towns all over Russia if you look: the huge building on Lenin/October/Revolution Square that used to be the local Party HQ is now the City government. Vide Smolniy in St Petersburg.

NATO. NATO has officially invited Medvedev to attend the NATO summit in Lisbon in November. To its surprise, NATO now finds Russia useful. I wonder what will come of this: it’s a significant gesture but NATO is a pretty dead tree organisation these days, capable of little more than platitudes.

WILDFIRES. Changes are being made to prevent such disasters again: amendments to the law; centralisation of the Federal Forestry Agency; new equipment.

MILITARY CHAPLAINS. The Patriarch says that priests will soon appear in military units to serve as chaplains. This (a little like rumours of Cossack units) keeps being announced but never seems to actually happen.

BOEING. Happy days for it: it won the bid and 50 or more 737 Next Generation airliners will be bought for Aeroflot; it beat out Russia’s United Aircraft and Airbus.

IRAN. Medvedev signed a decree Wednesday banning the sale of many weapons systems (including the S-300 SAM) to Iran; he was also reported to have placed restrictions on movement through Russia of “a number of Iranian nationals” connected with Iran’s nuclear program. Moscow has held out the S-300 carrot for years now; I believe as part of its (unsuccessful) attempt to influence Tehran. It has now given up. And another staple of the “charge sheet” against Russia bites the dust. Where does this leave Bushehr? The billion dollars or so that Russia received for completing the reactor is chump change to Russia Inc these days. But, we are told, there’s no effect on it.

POISON. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office is taking another look at the Yushchenko poisoning story. This story, which was a major component of the “Orange Revolution” narrative, is very fishy indeed. I always found it significant that, during Yushchenko’s presidency, we never heard anything more about it. Perhaps now we will. A complete fake in my opinion.

GEORGIA. A bomb went off close to the US Embassy in Tbilisi on Wednesday. This may or may not mean something. Probably not, but something to keep an eye on.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

WILL HE, WON’T HE? Because the only subject about Russia worth discussing seems to be this: Medvedev’s and Putin’s remarks at Q&A sessions have been parsed to create head scratchers on whether Putin will stand for President again. But, this speculation fails to take into consideration the simple fact that, had he wanted to, Putin could be President right now. All it took was the amendment of Art 81.3. No one can doubt that he had enough influence to have arranged that; but he didn’t. That is the fact these speculations ignore: why would he have fashioned this elaborate rigmarole of four years of Medvedev just so he could get back to the top again after a few bare chest events and harpooned whales? There must have been a reason for his decision (I now believe my 5th hypothesis to be correct). Secondly, we have a recent clue: “I am fed up with foreign policy”. The President’s job has a lot to do with foreign policy (and Medvedev’s personal style is better suited to today’s requirements); obviously Putin is saying he’s had enough of that. After years of observation I am convinced that Putin usually says what he means and means what he says. Therefore, I believe that, barring some catastrophic event, Putin will not run for President again. My prediction, therefore, is that Medvedev will run again and that, at the completion of his second term, some other member of The Team will be put forward (and win). But it’s the same team that has been in charge since 2000 and it has the same program. (By the way, as evidence that it’s a team, note that Sergey Ivanov – the “next President” in 2007 – is quietly plugging away.) There remains a considerable amount of popular support for The Team and there are no real challengers now or in the immediate future. This situation will not last forever, but it ought to endure another ten years or so.

MEDVEDEV AND DEMOCRACY. At his Q&A session in Yaroslavl, Medvedev spoke quite a bit about democracy. “[Russia] is a country with a thousand years of authoritarian tradition” and only a very few in a democratic direction: “We have a very young democracy, an imperfect democracy… [with] …many birth marks of the Soviet era”. That legacy creates many difficulties in personal behaviour but he underlined how much had changed: “I am quite optimistic about the future. I just think back to the way I was, say, 20 years ago, my ideas and beliefs, and I compare it to my current perception of life”. Of particular interest to me is that throughout his remarks he showed a hands-on experience with and understanding of the New Media (something rather rare in world leaders I think). To my mind his answers showed evidence of real thought. As always, the text should be read in full rather than what some reporter thinks you should know.

LUZHKOV. Yuriy Luzhkov has been a power in Moscow since 1977 and Mayor since 1992. He has won huge election mandates ever since. (For good reasons in the beginning: I came to Moscow about the time he took over and improvements were immediate and visible). But he’s been there too long and his wife is far too wealthy. Perhaps he is on the way out. Last week NTV accused them of corruption (they say they will sue) and rumours swirl that he will soon be dismissed by Medvedev (all heads of regions – Moscow City is one – hold power at the President’s pleasure). This may or may not happen – there was a lot of speculation in 2000 that, because he had backed a different horse, Putin would have got him out then. If he is dismissed, and if he (or she) is brought to trial for corruption, if it is a competent prosecution, then there might finally be an example to show that Medvedev’s anti-corruption campaign has real teeth. Several “ifs” there, but something to watch.

BEREZOVSKIY. More than US$52 million, allegedly made away with by him, has been returned to Aeroflot after a Swiss court ordered it. This success, years in the doing, has encouraged the Prosecutor General’s Office to demand that Berezovskiy return another half billion of the money he acquired in the 1990s. Given the changing relations, and perhaps also because of a new government in the UK, it will be interesting to watch this develop.

UNPANIC! Remember all the breathless reports that Putin had “claimed” the North Pole? Well Canada and Russia agreed today to settle the issue through UN rules and science; yesterday Norway and Russia settled their Arctic border by splitting the difference. Cooler heads got it right.

PEOPLE POWER. Another official falls victim to cell phone cameras and YouTube.

THE THIRD TURN. The NATO GenSek has again suggested Moscow should be included in a European missile defence system. It may happen at the summit in November: I am assuming that there is some backing in the membership (from France, Germany and Poland perhaps?). Poland has announced it will arrest Akhmed Zakayev should he appear in Poland; it appears he did not.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

POPULARITY. Polls show that both Medvedev and Putin are back at their previous high levels of popularity. A few weeks ago ratings took a dip, and some in the Kommentariat foretold the coming collapse of the “Putin System”. There only seem to be two subjects for the Kommentariat these days: the coming collapse of the “Putin System” and will Putin again be President: every event is spun as evidence of one or the other. No wonder everyone is always surprised.

AT LAST. One of the mysteries, to me at any rate, is how the – what word to use? eccentric, volatile? – President of Kalmykia, Kirsan Ilumzhinov, has been able to survive for so long. Well, finally yesterday he announced that he would not seek another term. He claims it was his decision.

THE FARCE. It is important to point out that, while many protesters are arrested at their unsanctioned demos, they are usually released quickly. Generally speaking, Western media reports don’t mention this and leave the reader with the impression that they stay in jail. But then, neither do they mention that the City generally approves a demo in some place other the one the protesters insist on (one of the offered sites on 31 August, by the way, was Bolotnaya Square, the place proposed as a Moscow “Speakers’ Corner”). Boris Nemtsov was arrested on 31 August; on Friday he was fined 500 Roubles (about $16) for disobeying a police officer. Nor do Western media outlets see fit to mention that protesters everywhere are arrested when they break the rules governing demos: Washington, Helsinki, Ottawa. Somehow, it’s only in Moscow that democracy and decency are imperilled when demonstrators who break the rules are arrested.

FIRES. The worst appears to be over – although there are still many wildfires burning. Medvedev instructed the Prosecutor General to inquire into preparedness in the regions and said “I hope that the prosecutors’ actions will serve as a wake-up call for the municipal authorities”. Clearly the blame is about to be laid. But not, it seems so far, in the Kremlin.

BACK TO THE FUTURE. Russian Railways has introduced a regular service between Moscow and Nice. In terms of how the West has perceived Russia over the centuries, this marks a certain return to the view of Russians as valued, rich and well-behaved visitors that was prevalent 100 years ago. Many European cities – including Nice – have Russian churches as a reminder of this period. Will Baden-Baden be next?

JIHADISM. After last week’s blows at their leadership, the jihadists have struck back with a suicide attack on an Army base in Buynaksk and a suicide car bomb in a market in Vladikavkaz (police have already made arrests). An attempted assassination of a Dagestan minister may also be their work.

THE THIRD TURN. More small indications of reality. Russia and Israel have signed a long-term defence cooperation agreement. The Russian Defence Minister spoke about learning from the IDF and the Israeli about common threats. It would be very interesting to know what was said about Iran. The French Foreign Minister is reported to have said that the Russian S-300 SAMs in Abkhazia do not upset the balance of power. And this, from a former Polish Foreign Minister, calls for a new relationship: “Poland and Russia. Time for change”.

JIHADISM COMES TO TAJIKISTAN. Returns, actually: a number of foreign jihadists – Khattab, for example – went to Tajikistan during the 1990s in an attempt to turn the multi-sided civil war into another locus of their world-wide war. They did not succeed and Khattab, for one, returned to Afghanistan and thence to Chechnya. But there was a suicide car bomb attack on Friday at a police station in Khujand which injured about 30 people. A bomb attack on a disco in Dushanbe on Monday sounds more like a “bizness” dispute.

GEORGIA. Discussions on a new Constitution which will make the PM more powerful than the President have begun. This is an obvious ploy to allow Saakashvili to retain power and quite different from what Putin did – he did not change the Constitution. I wonder how the Kommentariat will regard this. A poll shows opposition to the idea 48% to 14%.

 © Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

CORRUPTION. I believe that the single greatest problem in Russia today is corruption. I wouldn’t try to estimate how great a proportion of GDP is “taxed” this way, but it is very large. (Others don’t hesitate: 40% or 50%. Surely too high: if that much went to corruption, the only industries left would be brothels and fast cars!). Reducing corruption is said to be a high priority of the government, but how effectively is it being done? According to the Interior Ministry, 8000 people in the first 6 months of the year were prosecuted: among them 4 deputy governors, 3 regional ministers, 8 parliamentarians, 12 heads of municipalities and deputies and 15 heads of local executive power structures. You can’t say that that is nothing, but you can wonder if it goes high enough: as I’ve said before, the anti-corruption campaign will really bite when someone in an office near Medvedev or Putin is arrested. But bit by bit: recently a senior policeman was arrested and 4 Moscow policemen detained on suspicion of kidnapping. In an interesting approach, Sberbank posted a list of employees fired for breach of duty: “We do not want them to work in the banking system again”.

PUTINOLOGY. Putin has been in Russia’s Far East for some weeks visiting this and that and personally driving a car some distance along the new Chita-Khabarovsk highway. He gave some interviews in his car as he drove. In one (JRL/2010/165#34) he defined The Team’s target: “a mechanism of stable Russian statehood” (“механизм устойчивой российской государственности”), a process that will take decades. (Is mechanism really the best word? Something a little more organic, and less top-down, might be better.) Everything fell apart in the USSR because it was “organised on closed production”. Protesters say they want a law-governed society but refuse to get a protest permit and obey it. The West “deceived us in the most primitive way” about NATO expansion. In another interview he acknowledged the difference between hearing about something and actually seeing it: roads in this case. And confirming something I’ve suspected for a while: “I am fed up with foreign policy”; in any case, as he said, stronger domestic policy leads to stronger foreign policy.

SOMETHING YOU WON’T HEAR ABOUT. Putin laid flowers at the NorilLag Golgotha memorial.

PEOPLE POWER. Medvedev suspended construction on the Moscow-St Petersburg highway through the Khimki forest “given the concern experienced today by a significant number of Muscovites”. And the new media has its effect: a St Petersburg policeman was charged with excessive force breaking up an opposition rally 31 July thanks to a YouTube video and a cell phone video led to two traffic police in Magadan being sentenced. Maybe the police will try to ban cameras altogether (as some other jurisdictions have tried).

THE FARCE. As usual the marchers went anyway to Triumfalnaya Square,having refused other venues; the police broke it up; Washington huffed. Berezovskiy, that great champion of law and order, organised a demo in London; it passed peacefully (but he obeyed the rules: suppose he’d gone to Marble Arch instead?). Given that one of the principals today said that she will no longer participate in these stunts – she’s 83 – perhaps they will now stop.

ALCOHOL. Another campaign is under way: here’s some data. But on the other hand….

CHECHNYA. The Kadyrovs and Yamadayevs have, as they say, “made the peace”. Kadyrov formalised it at a wake for Sulim. Both families fought against the Russians in the first war but turned against the jihadists in the second and fought for Moscow (as it were). They had a falling out and two Yamadayevs and Kadyrov senior were killed. A term of the peace, it appears, is that neither side will blame the other for the deaths.

JIHADISM. Some good news for the authorities in the last two weeks. The man suspected of having organised the Moscow Metro bombings in March was killed as was the “Emir of Groznyy”. And as further evidence of informers or penetration, jihadists were killed in Ingushetia and Dagestan. It’s up and down.

HOW FLEETING IS FOREVER. The gold-plated statue of Saparmurat Niyazov has been dismantled.

GEORGIA. Saakashvili has promised that Tbilisi will soon formalise a non-use of force commitment over South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Well, I’ll believe it when I see it (and no weasel-wording). Wouldn’t it have been good if Tbilisi had made this commitment three years ago?

IRAN. The Defence Minister said that no decision to ship S-300 SAMs to Iran had been made. A bargaining chip I suppose. Bushehr is being fuelled but the Russians will control it for some time and all fuel is supposed to be accounted for and returned.

© Patrick Armstrong, Ottawa, Canada

CIVIL SOCIETY. One of the things I try to keep an eye on is the growth of civil society – which I define as people doing things for themselves and not waiting for instructions from the top. There isn’t a lot in Russia, but there is some. This summer’s plague of wildfires has brought about a flowering volunteers helping out those affected by these local catastrophes. The effort is made possible and glued together by the New Media. This piece discusses what is happening and here is one of the websites tying people together and helping organise the volunteer effort.

THE PROTEST GAME. A game is played over and over again between the opposition and Moscow City. The opposition asks for a venue it knows it won’t get and goes anyway hoping for the inevitable police reaction and Western coverage. The City refuses the application because, by an amazing coincidence, it was preceded by that of a regime-friendly organisation. Article 31 of the Constitution allows citizens “to assemble peacefully without weapons”. (But, surely not anywhere at any time and, given the presence of NatBols in these stunts, “without weapons” needs some thought.) The opposition likes to hold demos on the 31st day of months and applied for a permit to use Triumfalnaya Square next Tuesday. The City made its move and followed it with checkmate: it transpires that the square must immediately be turned into a parking garage! That well-known “democrat” Eduard Limonov says he will go anyway. The farce, in both variations, continues.

CIVILIANISATION. Medvedev appointed Tatyana Shevtsova a Deputy Defence Minister. She is a finance specialist like the other woman on the team. A further step in the evolution of civilian control. (I attended many meetings with their defence ministry: for years it was uniforms and suits on our side and only uniforms on theirs thus blurring the distinction between Ministry and Armed Forces. No more: of the 9 Deputies, only two are “uniforms” and the Minister has been a “suit” for a decade).

FSB POWERS. Medvedev told the FSB head to ensure its new power to issue pre-crime warnings be precisely defined. Might have been a better idea to have done that before passing the law.

MORE SPIES. On Monday Moscow expelled a Romanian diplomat. Yesterday, Bucharest expelled a Russian. So far, the usual tit-for-tat policy that Moscow itself almost always follows. But the Russian Foreign Ministry professes itself offended and threatens retaliation.

THE THIRD TURN. As more small indications of what I call the “Third Turn”, both the Polish and Latvian Presidents have recently called for improving relations with Russia.

BUSHEHR. RosAtom has stated that the Bushehr NPP will be loaded with fuel from Russia on Saturday. Under the agreement spent fuel rods will be returned to Russia. Both French and American spokesmen have said that the operation of this power reactor shows that Tehran has no reason to continue nuclear enrichment activity. Is something going on? Of course, despite some hyperventilation, Bushehr has nothing to do with other Iranian nuclear efforts. Assuming, that is, that Tehran does return the spent fuel.

TROUBLE IN PARADISE. Moscow would like more countries to recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia and has been working on Minsk. But not with much success. On Friday Lukashenka said that Minsk had not recognised them because Moscow refused to help it cope with any consequences. Moscow is threatening to publish a transcript in which he promised to. To my mind this is another indication that Belarus – as a sort of USSR lite – is running out of possibilities: it sounds as if Lukashenka was ready to sell recognition. I have never taken the Russia-Belarus “union” seriously, regarding it as something useful to talk about during elections but never to interfere with real business. For years it foundered on the currency union question and now there is too much difference between the two economies to make it worth Moscow’s while.

ARMENIA. The Armenian Foreign Minister has just said that the Russian air defence base lease in Gyumri will be extended well into the future and that Medvedev will sign this when he visits Yerevan today. Yerevan is of course worried that Baku, flush with oil revenues, will attack and sees a Russian presence as a deterrent.

JIHADISM. A jihadist leader was killed in Ingushetia; a car bomb in Pyatigorsk injured many; a suicide bomber stopped by police, blew himself up. For full coverage of jihadism, I recommend Gordon Hahn’s reports in ROPV: he follows it full time and has a good understanding of its relationship to the world wide jihad.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

FIRES. This summer’s exceptional heat sparked hundreds of wildfires in Russia (map here). The response showed many deficiencies in organisation and law. The worst appears to be over now but satellites still show nearly 500 fires. There will be political casualties – possibly even including Moscow’s Mayor who was out of town until Monday. A number of news outlets are trying to spin this into yet another story of the imminent collapse of the “Putin system” – see, for example, the amusing exchange in which a French reporter tries to get Alexandre Latsa to spin it that way. (Google “Latsa dissonance” and go down ‘till you find it).

DUUMVIRATE. That having been said, three polls show somewhat of a drop in trust levels for Medvedev and Putin although the numbers remain at levels most other politicians would do just about anything to get. Too early to know if it’s a trend, but I doubt it. One day Russians will tire of Medvedev/Putin but not yet.

SPIES. Washington and Moscow seem determined not to let the spy business derail relations and a swift exchange was mounted after Medvedev pardoned some individuals. The Russians were then interrogated at SVR HQ: “If it comes to light that the SVR officers have made serious mistakes, they may be dismissed”. I suspect that the authorities want to find out who was behind this daffy, and possibly corrupt, enterprise. Meanwhile, the US is getting rather silly too: the case against Aleksey Karetnikov is eviscerated by Eugene Ivanov here and Anna Fermanova was arrested for exporting something she could buy on the Internet.

RUSSIA INC. Unemployment is a little better: as of early August the “official” number (people registered with employment agencies and entitled to unemployment benefits) fell to 1.8 million; the ILO estimate of total unemployment is 5.6 million. Taking the ILO number and a labour force of about 75 million, this is 7-8% (a figure some countries would envy). GDP grew 4.2% in the first six months year-on-year.

MILITARY REFORM. On 14 July Medvedev signed a decree reorganising the Armed Forces at the top level. The age-old military district arrangement is to be replaced 1 December by four “strategic commands”: Western, Southern, Central and Eastern. The Strategic Missile Force will remain independent and an Integrated Logistic Support System will be created. To my mind the really significant thing about this is that each commander will control all the resources in his area: land, sea and air. The South Ossetia war showed the inadequacy of the old system with the Military District commander, who controlled only ground forces, having to negotiate – even plead – with separate commands in Moscow to get air or naval assets under his control.

EX VIGILANT EAGLE. A Russian-NORAD exercise has just concluded: it practised coordination responses to a simulated hijacked aircraft. Good to see thought given to common enemies rather than the endless repetition of Cold War memes.

GLONASS. Putin says GLONASS will be global by the end of the year. We’ve heard that before.

MODERNISATION. The government has launched an English website to give news of modernisation. It is too early to know whether it will have real content or just be PR fluff.

MORTGAGES. The Bank of Russia reports that the money issued for home mortgages doubled year on year; there are now 316,576 of them in ruble mortgages. Step by step.

PAMFILOVA. The presidential human rights council chief, Ella Pamfilova, has resigned. While she gave no reasons, it would appear that she was tired of inaction. Her decision may be connected with the sinister extension of the FSB’s powers “to issue an official warning to an individual regarding the inadmissibility of his or her actions that may lead to a crime”.

GEORGIA. I haven’t seen many polls on Georgians’ attitudes but here is a current one. Some highlights: nearly half consider themselves to be unemployed and, not surprisingly economic issues dominate their concerns. Even so, more than half think the country is going in the right direction. Nearly half do not think Georgia is a democracy now. Opinion is slightly against Saakashvili re-appearing as Prime Minister and strongly against his scheme of changing the Constitution to make the PM more powerful. Curiously, while 95% said they encountered no problems with the voters’ list; its integrity was seen as the biggest problem with elections. And, while NATO membership is strongly supported, 59% disapprove of current relations with Russia. Make of that what you can.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)