CORRUPTION. There are those who believe that one of the main reasons for Putin’s re-appearance in the President’s chair was that only he has the political muscle to really move on Russia’s widespread problem of corruption, especially corruption at the top. I have always said that we won’t know that the anti-corruption drive is serious until it takes down someone in an office near Putin’s or Medvedev’s. Do we start to see this? The OboronServis case is getting bigger. The case concerns skulduggery with the extensive number of military properties. Some charges have been laid and the inquiry has been widened. Last week Putin dismissed Defence Minister Serdyukov (that’s an office pretty near his) and some think that there is a connection and there is a hint in Putin’s words that there is (although, naturally, there are plenty of other theories too). Sergey Shoygu, the popular long-time Emergency Services Minister (Governor of Moscow Region since April) was appointed to replace him. The Chief of the General Staff and other senior military were also replaced shortly after and others today. It’s true that Serdyukov was very unpopular with the generals but Putin had kept him on nevertheless upon his return. Another possible scandal that may emerge involves the defence industries which many accuse of being only able to make ineffective weapons that are also very expensive. On the heels of this comes another scandal in another important and celebrated enterprise: the Russian GPS system GLONASS. For some years it has been promising more than it has delivered and now a case charging embezzlement has been opened. The chief designer of the system has just been fired. These are corruption scandals in important and prestigious parts of the state structure and are therefore much more momentous than another bent cop discovered somewhere in the sticks. More coming maybe. I would observe that, in my opinion, the worst corruption in Russia involves privatisation: public property being transformed into private gain; both of these fit that category.

SLOW JUSTICE. For one reason or another, the Russian justice system is slow. A gang leader has just been sentenced for a string of murders 15 to 20 years ago and one of the alleged masterminds of the Budyonnovsk attack in 1995 is about to go on trial.

HUMAN RIGHTS COUNCIL. The new Presidential Council for Civil Society and Human Rights exists and held its first meeting with Putin on Monday. I haven’t been able to find a list of members but there are said to be real critics on it. However, many members of the last iteration resigned charging that it’s just for show; we will see whether this is better. But a bad first sign: Putin promised to take a second look at the new treason law, but signed it anyway yesterday. A rather short second look.

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. Everything you thought you knew about Litvinenko is not so certain.

INTERNET BLACKLIST. There are now 180 websites blocked. They are all supposed to be child porn, drugs or other social ills. An official website claims to give the details (but I can’t figure it out, but no doubt a reader can).

NATIONALIST MARCH. Not all anti-Putin protesters are ones we like. The super nationalists marched on the 4th. Six to ten thousand calling for the end to immigration (ie from the Caucasus and Central Asia) and Russia for Russians. They dislike Putin because he’s not one of them. Reasonably peaceful other than some arrested for wearing Nazi symbols.

THINGS YOU WON’T SEE IN THE WESTERN MEDIA. Putin met with Solzhenitsyn’s widow on the 50th anniversary of Ivan Denisovich. I reiterate that the Gulag Archipelago is required reading (excerpts anyway) in high schools and Solzhenitsyn was given a high award by Putin. But that doesn’t fit the Approved Narrative.

GEORGIA. As expected, things are heating up. PM Ivanishvili asked Saakashvili to vacate the Presidential Palace (a rather elaborate structure for a poor country) and move to cheaper space, Saakashvili refused but agreed to turn the lights off at night. But, more to the point, Bacho Akhalaia, former penitentiary service head, Defence Minister and Minister of Internal Affairs, was charged last week and is now in pre-trial detention and more charges have been added. The Armed Forces Chief of Staff and a brigade commander were also charged. The case concerns abuse of soldiers. This is causing some anxiety in Europe and NATO which for so long regarded Saakashvili as a potential member of their club (I’ve seen nothing yet from Washington). I expect there will be more charges coming on other subjects.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

OPPOSITION VOTE. The opposition ran an electronic vote to choose their… what? – leaders? most popular figures? coordinators? The results are here (Russian). The top 5 are Navalniy, Bykov, Kasparov, Sobchak and Yashin. What I find striking is, in a supposedly computer-savvy broadly-based movement, that only about 80,000 actually voted out of the 170,000 who registered. One cannot say that the phenomenon is insignificant, but it does not seem to be so very large after all.

UDALTSOV. The Investigative Committee has opened a criminal case against Sergey Udaltsov (20th on the opposition vote) as a result of a TV program which showed a film allegedly of him conspiring to start disturbances. The Committee then claimed that one of his associates had confessed to organising disturbances bankrolled by Givi Targamadze. Said associate promptly declared that the “confession” had been forced out of him by threats. On Friday Udaltsov was formally charged with plotting mass disorder and released on his promise not to leave Moscow. As I said, I could believe he did it or that it’s a government setup.

BUSINESS CLIMATE. Improving. But, read the list and ask yourself whether you agree. (All FUSSR states better except Ukraine, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan?)

PUTIN. He will not give his call-in program but will likely hold a big press conference. Rumours aside.

MUSLIM CLERGY MURDERS. Most Russian Muslims are Sunnis with a strong Sufi influence. Wahhabis despise Sufis, regarding them as contaminated by innovation and idolatry. Influential imams and muftis are therefore obstacles to their aims. A Dagestani imam was murdered on Tuesday. This is the third murder this year of an imam in the North Caucasus that I have noticed (I’m sure there were more) and there was an attempt on the Mufti of Tatarstan in July. Another part of the complete story not often covered by the Western MSM.

CORRUPTION. Managers of the Defence Ministry property management company are being investigated for embezzlement and their offices were raided last week. Moscow police suspect the head of the Duma’s Office of “selling” positions. Two administrators at Moscow State University were arrested for soliciting a bribe from a student.

INTERNET CENSORSHIP. A law banning sites, principally those involved in child pornography, has come into effect. As usual, what is common elsewhere (France, UK, Finland, Germany, Australia for example) is spun as uniquely sinister when Russia follows the fashion.

STALIN. On the Day Commemorating the Victims of Political Repression, Medvedev condemned Stalin’s “war against the nation”. Lest anyone take this as a sign of struggles under the rug, Putin on the same day five years ago, at Butovo where about 20,000 were murdered, described the victims as “the pride of the nation”. Same program, same team.

GEORGIA. Back in the “Rose Revolution” Saakashvili had two allies: Zurab Zhvania, who later died in what was said to be an accident, and Nino Burjanadze who has been in the opposition for some years. The new chief prosecutor says the investigation into Zhvania’s death should be continued. This could open a can of worms: first because the FBI blessed the official story and second because some (Shevardnadze and former Defence Minister Okruashvili for two) suspect he was murdered.

TBILISI-MOSCOW. A delicate balance. The new Foreign Minister has declared that there will be no diplomatic relations so long as Moscow has embassies in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The new parliament speaker has said that Tbilisi “should abandon the role of crusader with regard to ‘undemocratic Russia.’” and “shouldn’t be making pinpricks that gratify us for two days but create two-year problems”. There will likely be steady improvement on bread-and-butter issues but South Ossetia and Abkhazia will remain obstacles: it will be many years before they will trust Tbilisi.

UKRAINE ELECTION. Parliamentary elections were held on Sunday and President Yanukovych’s party did best winning about 40% of the seats. Western observers condemned the vote as did Washington. Would a cynic be right to argue that because Yanukovych doesn’t support NATO entry for Ukraine, he is not a “democrat” and therefore elections that favour him are fakes? Or would that be too cynical? At any event, that is the reaction – and outcome – that I expected. “Step backwards” is the phrase of the day.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

BOOK PLUG. Please take a look at this: Putin’s New Russia. A number of us have contributed in an effort to counter the continuous outpouring of slipshod and biased reporting on Russia.

LOCAL ELECTIONS. United Russia dominated; the opposition cried foul. Turnout rather low but better in the five regions electing governors (all five drearily United Russia). But what is the “opposition” anyway? opposed to Putin yes, but agreed on what? See next.

DEMOS. Another large opposition demo passed off peacefully last month. The opposition is becoming more fragmented by the day; an eyewitness tells me about supernationalists yelling at PARNAS: “Russia without Jews!” and insulting gay rights campaigners; anarchists telling the white ribbon people to take up the black flag of anarchy; Udaltsov’s Red Front calling for Lukashenka to head a Russia-Belarus union; Monarchists calling Nemtsov a Russophobe. As if Nazis, Communists, and Occupy people all shared a stage shouting at each other with the occasional ???? appearing.

UDALTSOV. An NTV program ran a film supposedly showing him plotting civic disorder with a Georgian politician: he insists the film is a fake. The Russian Investigative Committee has opened a case. I have nothing intelligent to say: it could be true or it could be a fabrication designed to knock him out.

CORRUPTION. It is reported that corruption investigations totalled 15,800 in the first half of 2012: last year at the same time there were 10,400. The claim is that the increase is due to better investigation.

RUSSIA INC. There is a general agreement that GDP growth is slowing: an official gives 2.8%; the World Bank 3.5% and the IMF 3.7%. Even so, better than either the EU or the USA.

BEREZOVSKIY. Berezovskiy has lost his case against Abramovich: the judge finding him to be an “unimpressive, and inherently unreliable, witness, who regarded truth as a transitory, flexible concept, which could be moulded to suit his current purposes” and must pay the latter’s court costs of £35 million. Hmm, moulding truth to suit his current purposes… maybe the Western media may become less willing to re-type his press releases on deaths and music groups.

RUSSIAN SPIES. The USA claims to have broken up a spy ring that was moving microelectronics to Russia; the Canadian naval officer has admitted he was passing information to Russia and Germany claims to have broken up another ring. Now why on earth would Moscow feel that it had to know what NATO was up to?

USAID. Has left Russia. Given that its main business these days seems to be “democracy promotion”, given that that seems to be little more than the attempt to discredit Putin, I can sympathise with the decision to get it out. More thoughts, and my reasons for saying this, here. Foreign Minister Lavrov said Moscow would not treat European foundations the same way, they, he says, “act on the basis of intergovernmental agreements, well-considered and mutually acceptable ones, which are based on the principles of reciprocity and equality”.

SYRIA. A couple of days after calling Moscow’s position “morally bankrupt”, Washington called on it to help it get rid of Assad. Apart from this being a rather ineffectual way to solicit cooperation, Washington still doesn’t understand Moscow’s position. Which is to keep out of it. Washington is having trouble handling the fact that Assad is thus far not losing. And Washington might wonder where the weapons it’s sending are winding up: even the complaisant NYT suspects they’re not going to future friends. The simple fact is that Moscow’s stance is much more prudent. It’s not as if Washington these days has any reason to be pleased with the overthrow of Khadafy in Libya. Meanwhile another charge of Russia supplying weapons collapses.

UKRAINE. Yulia Tymoshenko may now have murder added to all the other charges.

GEORGIA. Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream comfortably won the election. Georgia is now in a dual power situation and that has seldom had a happy ending. I am very sceptical that Saakashvili will go quietly when his term ends. More thoughts here.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

RUSSIA INC. Some reported numbers for the first half of the year. The Finance Ministry reports that the federal budget is running a surplus of about US$8 billion. GDP is up 4.4% and industrial production by 3.2%. By today’s standards, these aren’t bad numbers. Population is reported to have grown by about 85,000 since the beginning of the year although it was immigration that made it into growth: despite improvements, natural increase is still negative. However births are growing faster than deaths. A VTsIOM poll finds that Russians say they are paying more attention to their health.

POPULARITY. I’m a little mystified by this report that a Levada poll finds a significant drop in Putin’s rating since the election. The Levada site (Google translation) doesn’t show any such thing: if anything his rating has squeaked up a bit. (Mind you the first is referring to an August poll while the site is still in July: but that quick a drop seems improbable). The opinion of whether Russia is going forwards or into a dead end is not much changed either. So as far as I can see Levada data doesn’t show any particular trend this year. However, taking it from August 1999, we do see a downward trend for both Putin and Medvedev but an upward trend in how the country is doing. Putin’s slippage from the heights began gently around the autumn of 2008 but the “index” (approve minus disapprove) only went below 50 at the end of 2010 and he’s still 67:32. (other politicians can, of course, only dream of such numbers). Does this mean anything? Perhaps Russians are getting tired of him (slowly); perhaps they are becoming more healthily sceptical about their leaders; perhaps Russia’s economic performance, which while good by today’s standards is less than it used to be, is affecting them. I still think that Putin’s decision to return was a mistake. We will see.

SPACE LAUNCHES. We hear about the failures but less about the successes. Nonetheless the routine reliability of Russian space launch technology (an important money earner and a big percentage of all world launches) has faltered of late. Medvedev made the usual dire threats and ordered immediate roposals and the Director of the Khrunichev Plant, where most of them are made, resigned. One of the more tiresome Russian government traditions is the Boss threatening-demanding a plan tomorrow-firing someone cycle. Seldom has much effect.

LEBEDEV. Still no reaction from the powers. He has asked the government to buy his Aeroflot shares.

WTO. Russia is now formally a member after 18 years of negotiation (is that the world record?). Jackson-Vanik is still in effect in the USA which apparently makes sense to somebody.

UNITED RUSSIA. Medvedev, who leads it, has promised to purge the party. Heard that one before: not an easy job given that United Russia is the party of kratotropes.

POLICE REFORM. Medvedev’s reform has to be judged… incomplete. Four police were found guilty of abusing detainees. Charges were laid in the police torture case in Tatarstan. A Moscow police officer was detained with almost 1 kg of cocaine. The idea was that senior policemen would be, as it were, interviewed for their jobs. And juniors would be interviewed by seniors. A good idea, one would think, but the sequencing seems to have been wrong. The first stage should have been done first (a third of the seniors were let got) and then the survivors of that step should have completed the second. Anyway, 90% of juniors were retained. Too many.

PUSSY RIOT. The Pussy riot defendants were sentenced to 2 years less time served (which counts double) so another 14 months in jail. They will appeal. Thereupon the Church asked the authorities to show mercy. There have been some small protests. And, in this connection, here is a case to watch and see how the authorities in Kiev handle it. My thoughts on the strange unanimity of Western coverage on the case here. Speaking of which, I am interested to see some second thoughts appearing in Western media outlets: here and here. That having been said, I suspect that both PR and the authorities now wish they had taken a different approach: PR pleads guilty, apologises and is fined a couple of thousand rubles. But, maybe they’ll make some money.

North Caucasus. Quite a lot of jihadist attacks reported. I recommend the regular reports by my colleague Gordon Hahn who follows these things much more closely than I do.

UKRAINE. Yanukovych signed the law ratifying a free trade zone agreement with the CIS. Kiev is still working on a free trade agreement with the EU.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

PRESSURE. A prominent Russian businessman says he will sell all his assets in Russia and retire so as to end what he calls “relentless pressure from the authorities”, specifically from “Directorate K of the [FSB]”. He believes this began when the newspaper he part owns began an investigation of corruption in the FSB. He says he does not think the Kremlin is behind “my business… being purposefully and deliberately destroyed” but would like it to clarify its position. One of the Duumvirate ought to say something and soon.

DIRECTION. A recent poll finds an increasing pessimism about the way Russia is developing: 35% think in the wrong direction (up from 26% in Feb 2009) and 31% in the right direction (down from 52%). However, before this is shoved into the latest idiotic editorial about the imminent collapse of “the Putin system”, we need a little context. 61% of Americans think their country is on the wrong track; 73% of British and 56% of EU inhabitants do too. So, as the real world runs, Russians are pretty upbeat.

RUSSIA INC. The EBRD has cut its growth forecast for Russia from 4.2% to 3.1% in 2012 and from 4.3% to 3.3% for 2013. It foresees lower demand for commodities in the Eurozone. Still, by present standards, not bad.

OSSETIA WAR. In a film just out, several former senior generals say Medvedev should have given the order to move into South Ossetia a day earlier and many died because he didn’t . Medvedev defended his decision. (I thought that Putin &Co didn’t allow any public disagreements). I will be amused to see how Saakashvili’s flacks try to spin this, given that Saakashvili’s final version of the story was that they did move a day early.

PUSSY RIOT. The trial began on the 30th and ended yesterday. The judge promises to hand down her verdict on the 17th. Many absurdities about this event: Anatoly Karlin takes the time to dissect a Guardian editorial on the subject – much more time than the writers took to string together memes of the moment, half truths and untruths. I recommend reading it to illustrate just how biased, slipshod and dishonest so much commentary on Russia is. Alexander Mercouris has written a long legal analysis of the case. By the way, unlike the MSM, which is happy to throw around generalisations without sources, both Karlin and Mercouris provide many hyperlinks: they don’t make stuff up. A question to ponder: given that Putin also has the support of Russia’s Chief Mufti, when will we see Pussy Riot call him Putin’s “bitch” too?

SLOW AND STEADY. Not for the first time, Putin laid out his ruling strategy: “Move gradually, calmly, with the necessary rotation, but move forward”.Understandable, but the time can come when caution slips into stagnation. I still think it would have been better had he not run again. I don’t think he’s run out of creativity yet, but it comes to all of us eventually.

CORRUPTION. The first corruption case over the Sochi Olympics is ready to go to court, others are being prepared. Given all the circumstances – lots of money thrown at it, pressure from the top – I’m sure that a lot of money has disappeared.

PARTIES. A potentially significant opposition party, RPR-PARNAS, was registered.

THE LAW IS SLOW. The Russian legal process is not very high-speed. The investigators have finally sent the Kushchevskaya case to court (gang war is their theory) 21 months after the crime. Four skinheads were sentenced for murder during the Manege Square riot (20 months). And two more were sentenced today for involvement in the murder of a governor in October 2002; four others having been convicted last year. I have no theories but observe that many commentators seem to expect it should go faster.

PUTIN IN UK. Putin met with the British PM and things seem to go pretty calmly. It seems that Litvinenko was not a major part of the agenda. Apparently £4 million has already been spent on the investigation and the coroner hasn’t even made a verdict of how he died yet. Not much return for the money (speaking of slow legal processes).

INTERESTING LAWS. We hear much about laws in Russia; here’s one I just heard about. It’s illegal in Lithuania to deny Soviet aggression and someone was just sentenced for doing so. Don’t hear much about that law which would seem to have the effect of turning historical arguments into criminal cases.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

NGOs. The new law was overwhelmingly passed by the Duma and the Federation Council. (a real all-party effort – it’s a popular provision: 60% plus). In essence, NGOs that are foreign-funded and operate in the political sphere must report on the extent of foreign funding and label themselves as foreign agents. Here is what has changed. The law is somewhat modelled on the US FARA law of 1938 that “requires persons acting as agents of foreign principals in a political or quasi-political capacity to make periodic public disclosure of their relationship with the foreign principal” (something seldom mentioned in much of the commentary on the Russian law). Much flapdoodle from those whose oxen will be gored and livelihoods will be affected. Application is, of course the key, but I have no problem with the law: I think Canada, which has a similar problem, should have a similar law. People should be able to know what interests are trying to influence them.

STATE COUNCIL. Leaders of the parliamentary opposition have been added to this advisory group which held its first meeting in this new format on Tuesday. Usual response: either an opening to or cooption of.

INTERNET. The Duma and the Federation Council have passed a law allowing websites “promoting illegal drugs, child abuse or suicide” to be shut down. Not uncommon elsewhere.

POLITKOVSKAYA MURDER. Back at the beginning of the investigation, a senior policeman, Dmitriy Pavlyuchenkov, was suspected of having set up the killing. Then something happened and this line was not pursued. But he was re-arrested and has apparently pleaded guilty to tracking her whereabouts and giving weapons to the actual killers. In what may be a plea-bargain, the Investigative Committee has formally charged him with involvement, but not doing the actual killing. From the beginning the official theory has been the man who ordered the killing (suspicions but no names – thought to be in the West somewhere), the sub-contractor (a Chechen “biznesman”), the spotter (Pavlyuchenkov) and the actual killers (people were tried but found not guilty). (The Wikipedia article isn’t much use, being mostly a collection of rumours.) I have always believed that she found out something (perhaps without knowing that she had) that some player in Chechnya didn’t want known and she was killed. (By the way if, as many still believe, Putin had her killed, we would not be hearing about a senior policeman’s involvement.)

ECONOMY. Putin is smart enough to know that Russia Inc is too dependent on energy sales and that the coming North American domination of production will seriously change the oil and gas business. He has spoken of the first many times, as did Medvedev in his time. His latest move in what I think will be the predominant issue of his current term, is the creation of a President’s Economic Council to guide diversification of the economy. Easier to say than to do of course.

FLOODS. There are serious floods in Krasnodar Region, and many have died. Udaltsov says the problems are a direct result of corruption. No doubt corruption has played a part, but, typically, he gets all absolutist: “Nothing is invested in infrastructure, everything is being stolen”. No it’s not all stolen and there is much investment. Of more interest, there has been, as with the forest fires a couple of years ago, much civil society involvement.

SYRIA. The deputy head of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, is quoted as saying Russia will not deliver any new types of weapons or sign military contracts with Syria until the situation stabilises. This especially affects the 36 Yak 130 trainer/light ground attack aircraft.

BORDERS. Putin and Yanukovych at their meeting last week signed a preliminary agreement on the delimitation of the border in the Kerch Strait. This agreement (which one assumes will stand) two decades after the breakup of the USSR is an example of how difficult these issues are. In the Soviet days it didn’t matter where the line was because it was all in the same country and was a federal responsibility anyway. But navigation and access matter between independent countries. And that took a lot of back and forth to get to. The details aren’t out but it appears that Russian ships can freely pass through to the Sea of Azov and Tuzla Island is part of Ukraine. There was also some agreement about Russian Black Sea Fleet basing in Ukraine. Novorossiysk is supposedly being built up to be a major – maybe the major – base for the Fleet, but it’s not clear what has actually been done and Google Earth doesn’t suggest that much has.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

PUTIN SPEECH. At the St Petersburg Forum. On a recurrent theme, he said that the economy must reduce its dependence on hydrocarbons and that foreign investment was necessary: “This is why we feel that creating an investment climate that is not just favourable, but truly better and more competitive, is a key issue in state policy.” A commissioner for entrepreneurs’ rights, Boris Titov, has been named (he immediately said he would press for pardons for the many in jail for economic crimes – including Khodorkovskiy. I wonder how that will play out). The government will reduce its holdings in state-owned companies. Medvedev received much attention at the start of his presidency for talking about Russia’s “legal nihilism”; well, here’s Putin: “Unfortunately corruption is without exaggeration the biggest threat to our development”. Same team, same program. In fact there are those who think Putin came back as President because only he has the muscle to take on corruption. There is a hint in the speech that he takes the G20 more seriously than the G8. An important speech to read and not read about: making Russia a more attractive place for foreign investment will be a high priority. He’s not naïve: “a fairly difficult and ambitious goal, given our position today”.

TODAY’S VIDEO. Putin is a believing Christian. I heard that a long time ago and here’s a video collection.

PARTIES. The 1995 Duma election had 43 parties contending and 4 crossed the 5% threshold (I was an official observer and well remember the gigantic ballots – size of a newspaper sheet). In 1999 there were “only” 30 and five made it over the barrier (two merged into today’s United Russia pedestal party). Putin’s new rules made it harder to register and raised the barrier, Medvedev’s rules made it easier and lowered the barrier. So we’re back to the 1990s. 23 new parties have been registered and there are more on the waiting list. But, over these elections and different rules, one thing stands out: only four tendencies get into the Duma, whatever number of parties there may be. The Communists and Zhirinovskiy (who have some overlap of appeal) make it and so does the pedestal party (gone through several iterations but the same in essence). Then there is a “liberalish” party (used to be Yabloko – and probably could be today if Russian liberals had cooperated with each other) but today the United Russia-lite Just Russia fills the position (will it carve a place for itself? Seems to be doing so). I would be surprised if the addition of other 20 – or 200 – parties will make much difference to this breakdown which well reflects political opinion in the country. One of the great defects of Russian politics to my mind is the refusal of the “liberal” tendency (which probably has 10-15% of the electorate) to unite. Good piece on their failures here. As an observer of the 20 years, I find it interesting just how long it takes a real party system to evolve. We’re not there yet and I have no idea when we will be.

FEDERATION COUNCIL. Yet another re-arrangement. Now gubernatorial candidates (again to be directly elected) must nominate their representative on the Federation Council (and 2 spares) as part of their campaign. Russia’s upper house therefore resembles the US Senate before 1913 – direct representatives sent by the regions.

POLL. For those who think Russian polls that show Putin is popular are fixed and that they can therefore make up their own numbers, here’s a German/US one that shows the same thing (graphic). By the way Navalniy, the West’s current darling, is not especially popular. I also notice that 43% say they have 2 or more children.

NATO. Moscow has given approval for NATO to use a base in Ulyanovsk as a transit hub to Afghanistan. This is not going to be a popular decision.

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. A DND study says that Russia’s activities in the Arctic pose no threat to Canada: “Russia is following the same process prescribed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to define its outer jurisdictional limits as other coastal states”. (See this) That’s not what we heard at the time: Russia claims North Pole. But the damage was done and it was affixed to the “charge sheet”. And another: one of the Russian amphibious ships supposedly enroute to Syria never went anywhere near it.

ISRAEL. Putin’s trip to Israel is a reminder that Russian-Israeli relations are actually pretty good. Gas too maybe.

GEORGIA. Shevardnadze is reported to have said his “biggest sin to the people and the country was the fact that he had transmitted power to Saakashvili” whom he calls a dictator, Apparently Ivanishvili has hired his own PR firm in Washington. I foresee the amusing scene of Lobbyist A entering a US Congressman’s office and saying “Saakashvili is a great democrat and should be supported” to be immediately followed by Lobbyist B saying “Saakashvili is a great dictator and should be opposed”. Cognitive dissonance indeed.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

SYRIA ET AL. Whenever something horrible happens in the world that Western governments and media outlets actually notice, we find two different reactions from Moscow and Washington. Moscow confines itself to anodyne statements about constitutional agreement, peace and so forth – admirable sentiments which do nothing. Washington, on the other hand, feels it has to pick a side and blame those that don’t. US media outlets either create this judgement or follow along (which comes first?). Washington then accuses Moscow (and others) of preventing it “doing something”; the media picks up this line and fills up with stories (many of which don’t prove to be true: this one again, for example). When the crisis ends, interest and coverage do too. The collective memory is wiped clean and attention moves to the next CNN crisis. Since the end of the Cold War I recall four of these “humanitarian interventions” that exemplify this pattern. No one today ever mentions Somalia (1992) or Haiti (1994); the first being an utter disaster and the second ineffective. As to Kosovo (1999) we never heard about the KLA and organ harvesting at the time or much else about the people NATO put into power today; as to Libya (2011) mention of gunmen fighting it out or knock-on effects in Chad or Mali stays far in the back pages. The reality is that these “humanitarian interventions” aren’t such big successes that anyone should lightly proceed to the next one. So, if Putin “lectured” Obama, whose knowledge of the world is a bit shaky, I have some sympathy with him. Their bland joint statement here.

PROTESTS. New fines for unauthorised protests have been passed. Putin’s press secretary said he would not sign until he had looked at European norms and carefully considered. Didn’t take him long – he signed 2 days later. Much flapdoodle – this ever-reliable hater of all things Putin manages, in the same piece, both to suggest Putin is weakened by continual large-scale protests and that he is cracking down on them. Alas for his thesis, there was another large anti-Putin protest on Tuesday that passed off without incident. (And a very mixed bag turn out these days). Russia has rules, the same as everyone else: ask for a permit, where, when and how many, negotiate with the city, get agreement and go ahead. Stick to the permit and nothing happens. Break the rules, and the cops move in. And, even in such exemplars of democracy as Canada, the rules can be changed. I am amused to see that VTsIOM finds that Putin’s and Medvedev’s ratings have improved since the protests began, Levada agrees. I leave it to you, Dear Readers, to speculate on how this could be. Given all the hoohah in Western news outlets.

CORRUPTION. A former senior policemen was sentenced to 9 years for a swindle; several senior officials in Kabardin-Balkaria were arrested for involvement in a property swindle; a former village council head got 9 years for taking a bribe. A very senior military medical officer arrested for bribe-taking. 4 policemen in Ufa were fired for negligence that led to murder. And, probably related to corruption, a newly-built road in Vladivostok collapsed.

MODERNISATION. This is going to be the big push I think. Both Putin and Medvedev have often spoken of the dangers of Russia’s economy being so dependent on oil prices, presently declining. Putin has created a council and has called for big investments.

MAGNITSKIY. After investigation, a case for negligence against the former head of the prison in which he died has been sent to the prosecutors. Not the least of the idiocies of the Magnitskiy Bill is that, logically, it must rely on Russian descriptions of the crime and the Russian investigation to determine the guilty.

UNEMPLOYMENT. Dropped, we are told to a 4-year low of 5.4%. No one in 2000 would have expected this; few in 2008 come to think of it either.

POZNER. Medvedev took the dare and appeared but Pozner’s questions were pretty bland. Opportunity missed.

CHINA. Lots of deals signed when the two presidents met. Well, given the Magnitskiy Bill and Jackson-Vanik, when one door closes, another opens.

KARABAKH. Karabakh sources say an Azerbaijani probe was repulsed with casualties. Azerbaijan’s Deputy PM says Baku is ready to clear Karabakh of its “Armenian occupiers”. Russia, USA and France make a joint statement. A long-held concern is that, when Azerbaijan feels it has bought enough military power with its oil money, it will attack. If so, I confidently predict another defeat for Azerbaijanian forces.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

THE CARDS ARE RE-DEALT. After the usual considerations, negotiations and calculations, the re-shuffle is probably complete. There is a new government with many new faces. A new Security Council – most positions ex-officio. Defence is unchanged (many thought Serdyukov was going to go) but there is a new Interior Minister (police reform has proved to be somewhat unfinished). Sergey Lavrov continues as Foreign Minister. True to his habit, Putin has sent no one into the darkness; many of the old faces being “kicked upstairs”. Neo-Kremlinologists are scrying the auguries but as far as I can see, we have the same Team, with new people moved up from the “farm teams”. What ought to be apparent, after more than a decade’s observation, is that Putin has created a remarkably collegial, discreet and effective team. He’s had a few former insiders join the opposition but (I can’t resist) nothing like Saakashvili who has seen almost every former minister, associate and ambassador go into the opposition. Further thoughts coming Friday here.

DEMOGRAPHICS. More good numbers: births up and deaths down and a fertility rate that is rising into the middle of developed countries. Anatoly Karlin has a discussion and summary of the first quarter’s numbers. The improvement is clearly not a “blip” but it’s not yet clear whether it is long-term. I have a question. We know that fertility rates can change suddenly (vide the “baby boom” in Canada and the USA after the war and the dramatic drop in Quebec in a few generations). All kind of personal factors come into play: national pride, hope (or not) for the future, affluence, education, religious beliefs and many more – millions of individual decisions that are mysteriously in step. My speculative question is this: might it be possible that positive factors are coming together in Russia and that its fertility rate might continue to grow? A few generations of Europe with negative fertility and Russia with positive would make a different world Something to watch.

THE NEW WANDERERS. Various “Occupy” wannabes are wandering around Moscow, chased by the police, trying to set up a protest camp. And why not? The originals were such successes. A world-wide phenomenon, come to think of it, that we will likely see more of.

MOSCOW MURDERS. Businessman Mikhail Kravchenko was murdered last week; the police claim to have the organiser in custody and are looking for the buttonmen. The next day a former Georgian general, who turned against Saakashvili, was assassinated.

CORRUPTION. A Moscow traffic policeman is charged with large-scale theft and a case has been opened against two Krasnodar entrepreneurs for fraud.

GDP GROWTH. RosStat gives 4.9% year-on-year growth for the first quarter; the EBRD predicts 4.2% for the year. Pretty good by today’s standards; number two in the G8 I believe.

UNITED RUSSIA. Four days after joining it, Medvedev was unanimously elected head of United Russia. Vladimir Pozner observed that this reminded him too much of CPSU congresses and challenged Medvedev to appear on his program and explain himself. Will he take up the challenge? I wouldn’t rule it out.

POLICE. More brutalities in Kalmykia. Tatarstan and elsewhere. We will see if the new Minister can do better.

PARTIES. A party I expected to do better than it did in the 1990s, Women of Russia, has just been registered.

SANCTIMONY FLAME WARS. The Foreign Ministry, no doubt enjoying every moment, expressed its concern about “aggressive arrests of peaceful demonstrators in Chicago and in Montreal”. The US State Department huffed about human rights in Russia. I wish this nonsense would stop. But it won’t.

NOT RUSSIA BUT SIGNIFICANT NONETHELESS. A consortium (24% LUKoil) has discovered a major oilfield in Egypt, which previously didn’t have much. Something that may have some significant effects in time.

G8 AND NATO. Summits were held and everything is Just Fine. First prize goes to the G8: “We recognize the particular sacrifices made by the Libyan people in their transition to create a peaceful, democratic, and stable Libya.” I sometimes think that they have hired former Warsaw Pact staff to write their communiqués. The ability to bludgeon reality into silence with hundreds of wooden words takes skill and practice.

GEORGIA. Maybe (maybe) the opposition to Saakashvili has found a focus. Bidzina Ivanishvili has been working away to create an opposition force and it held its first rally on Sunday attracting a large crowd

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

VORSTAND RESHUFFLE. Putin was inaugurated on Monday and, as promised, immediately nominated Medvedev as PM. He was confirmed by the Duma the next day (Communists and Just Russia voting against). I was intrigued by their first reported actions: Putin ordered the creation of a business ombudsman to defend “the rights of entrepreneurs” showing that improvement of Russia’s business climate is a high priority. Medvedev called for a new system of state defence orders. This last has been notoriously opaque; many complain the money is not wisely spent and Russian-made weapons are over priced and not modern. Note that each of these touches on corruption: there are those who think that Putin returned to the Presidency because only he has the political muscle to attack this pervasive problem. Perhaps so, we will see. I still think that we need to see someone in an office close to the two led away in handcuffs for an anti-corruption drive to really bite.

FOREIGN POLICY. Putin quickly issued a host of decrees, one on foreign policy. The first priority is “to assist in creating favourable external conditions for the Russian Federation’s long-term development, modernisation of its economy, and strengthening its positions as an equal partner on global markets.” The second is “to seek to assert the rule of law in international relations, to advocate the leading role of the UN in global affairs and the fundamental principles of the UN Charter that require the development of friendly relations between nations on the basis of equality, respect for each others’ sovereignty and territorial integrity…” This is a country that wants a quiet life so it can develop its economy.

DEMOS. The “March of Millions” on the 6th was nowhere near “millions”; more like 20K. That day a similar number turned out on behalf of Putin. Clearly the steam has gone out of the protests and they are returning to the usual immiscible assemblage of communists, ultra-nationalists and former politicians with an element ready to play to the biases of the ever-gullible Western press corps. As they were intended to, Western headlines focussed on the attempt to rush the Kremlin and the police response rather than the peaceful protest. But it’s not news: tens, hundreds, of thousands can protest against Putin so long as they follow the rules that they agree to. Yavlinskiy, on the other hand, knows it was a stunt; now is the time to “to start serious politics, winning elections and taking power” (not that he’s shown much skill…).

LITVINENKO. Read this. The West was fed a line and swallowed it whole.

POLITICAL CHANGES. Medvedev’s last act as President was to sign into law some of the political changes that have been in the works for a while. Direct election of regional heads returns in June and it will now be much easier for political parties to be registered. The Republican Party was just re-registered: there are now 8 registered parties and another 171 in application. I remember the giant ballots of the 1995 Duma election; I guess we’ll be seeing them again. Only the dimmest would attempt to argue that Putin does not support these changes.

MISSILE DEFENCE. Moscow reiterated all its points at a conference in Moscow: in extremis, Moscow could see it as such a threat that it might have to attack the sites; the refusal to give “legal binding guarantees” makes Moscow more mistrustful of the ultimate purpose. Predictably the Western media stripped the context out and reported it as a threat. No: Moscow is the side that feels threatened. And, having been burned before, it no longer trusts mere assurances. It’s not that complicated.

RUSSIAN SHELF. In another result from the new tax regime, Rosneft and Norway’s Statoil have formed a JV to explore Russia’s offshore reserves in the Barents and Okhotsk Seas.

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. The newest victim is Miriam Elder in The Guardian. Her loss of her dry-cleaning receipt illustrates the essential evilness of Putin as does a blog on RT. No matter how apparently unconnected some event may be, the afflicted can always twist it into an anti-Putin rant. PDS is gradually becoming the sole content of Western reporting; Stephen Cohen points out the cost to us here. If only, in 1999, Western reporters had bothered to go to St Petersburg rather than asking their usual Moscow contacts who Putin was, we might have a more balanced view today.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)