NEW WEBSITE. Check out http://russia-insider.com/en. Aims to provide a better source of Russia-related news. You will be able to read today what the Western MSM will grudgingly admit to in a few months.

CORRUPTION. We are informed that peculation in the defence sector may have totalled half a billion dollars. We cannot fail to notice that former Defence Minister Serdyukov walks free (as, come to think of it, do the Luzhkovs). I have always said I’ll believe that the anti-corruption drive is really biting when someone in an office near Putin or Medvedev is arrested. Hasn’t happened yet.

MILITARY EXERCISES. There have certainly been a lot of military exercises and drills in Russia this year. All quite understandable. Until 2008 I think Moscow operated on the assumption that the threat from NATO could be handled by nuclear deterrence and that Russia’s main security problems were from jihadists in the Caucasus and Central Asia. But the Georgian attack on Ossetia, which Moscow suspects was egged on by some people in Washington – certainly there were “mixed messages” – taught them that proxy wars will be coming. The fighting in Ukraine, will not have made them any less certain of this. Hence, the big drive for up-to-date and well-equipped conventional forces. George Kennan saw it all coming: “I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever.” Reason or not, here we are today.

“PEACE MARCH”. So-called; in Moscow pulled 5K to 10K – other sources make other claims but my sources suggest that that is more accurate. Plenty of counter-demonstrators were there too.

SPACE. The ISS is not quite so dependent on rockets from Russia (“which doesn’t make anything”) now that a US resupply rocket has docked.

TRUCE IN UKRAINE. Is holding. More or less. Still some shelling but prisoner exchanges are happening and some pullbacks. Atrocity reports from the OSCE. More coming. Westerners, duped by reports of Kiev gains – this BBC map was especially misleading – have no idea of the scale of Kiev’s defeat – 65% of its military hardware lost. Only now are Western media outlets starting to report reality. The NYT reports that Kiev took so few prisoners (or have so few still alive) that they kidnap civilians to make up the numbers.) Kiev was utterly defeated and did appalling things: will your news outlet tell you?

WHAT WAS IT ALL FOR? The whole thing began 21 November 2013 when Yanukovych decided to delay the implementation of the EU agreement to take Russian responses into account. On 12 September 2014 Poroshenko decided to delay the implementation of the EU agreement to take Russian responses into account. Mercouris sums up the cost of the eleven-month delay in that decision.

BACKING DOWN? Did Obama just intimate that he finds Crimea in Russia and a frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine acceptable? Or was it just empty talk? See Sean’s Russia Blog for the suggestion.

GENERAL WINTER. The coal shortage in Ukraine may reach five million tonnes. The head of the Ukrainian gas company says Ukraine either has to save five billion cubic metres of gas or buy it from Russia. Going to be cold.

SAAKASHVILI. Who has not set foot in his native land since he ceased to be President, has now had all his property in Georgia seized as well as an arrest warrant issued. Do you think he and Poroshenko ever discuss what happens afterwards?

POROSHENKO’S VISITS. He visited North America, addressed Parliament and Congress, standing ovations all round. “The aggression against Ukraine has become one of the worst setbacks for the cause of democracy in the world in years” and so on. But, it seems, not with much practical result.

OLD DISPUTES? Both India and Pakistan have filed applications to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation; given their long hostility this is somewhat surprising. The Chinese President has said, after talks with India’s PM, that Beijing is ready to cooperate with Delhi over the disputed territories. Meanwhile, many deals in the works between the two. Again, interesting. Of course a common threat can make people re-think the relative importance of things (witness Greece and Turkey in NATO).

SANCTIONS. Germany’s industrial production sags; Russia’s not doing badly.

 

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

MH17. The preliminary report is here. It wasn’t pilot error (but who thought it was?); nor a problem with the aircraft (ditto). “The aircraft was penetrated by a large number of high-energy objects from outside the aircraft” (already knew that). So: cannon rounds, AAM or SAM, or some mixture thereof are all possible. Transmissions stopped at 1320:03 UTC and the “black boxes” had not been tampered with. Not much is it? For what it’s worth, the Russian military briefing shows a fighter jet just in front of MH17 at 1320 UTC (1720 Moscow time); MH17 disappeared from the radar at 1323 UTC.

CEASEFIRE. There is a ceasefire, there have been violations. I doubt it will last; the issue is not yet settled.

WHERE DO THE WEAPONS COME FROM? Cyberberkut claim to have hacked Kiev’s records: the rebels have captured, between 20 Jun and 23 Aug, 79 T-64 MBTs, 94 IFVs, 57 APCs, 24 Grad MLRS. This site attempts to record them. Another source is Soviet-era depots. (Said to be a large one at Slavyansk).

NEO-NAZIS. Remember when Ukrainian neo-nazis were just another of Moscow’s tall tales and Putin was the real fascist? Not so much any more: the MSM has finally noticed: Guardian, Telegraph, New York Times (but only at the very end of the piece), Newsweek, German TV. (But caution is advised: this may be reported only so the WMSM can pretend to be “objective”). Given the mighty Ukrainian warrior tradition, how could they be defeated? Only by betrayal; and that has to be in Kiev. Will these people return to Kiev determined to punish the “traitors”? Stay tuned. (Incidentally, Dear Reader, as far as I know, the NY Books piece is the first time the Western MSM has described what we who follow the Saker and Cassad have seen for months: shattered vehicles and corpses. The slaughter is stunning).

AMNESTY INTERNATIONAL. Here’s a report that vaguely accuses both sides and claims Russian involvement (usual satellite photos of weapons supposedly from Russia – but much better photos than NATO’s interestingly – and reports). But more significant, and more detailed, a report on crimes of one of the neo-nazi “volunteer” forces on the Kiev side – the Aidar battalion.

SO WHAT’S GOING ON? I have always said that all Moscow ever wanted from Ukraine is a country 1. that paid its gas bills 2. wasn’t a NATO launch pad and 3. didn’t have a political crisis every 5 years that kept everybody in Moscow up all night. In short: prosperous, neutral and stable. But that possibility is gone now. So how about a fractional Ukraine (Crimea is not/not going to be a US Navy base – check out this if you think I exaggerate) that’s neutral but broke? But is this still possible? But I don’t think Moscow is all that happy about an independent (or incorporated) Novorossiya with an indeterminate and contested border on the other side of which is a neo-nazi entity, stuffed full of missiles and NATO (ie US) bases. Tough one for Moscow to figure out and, I hear, much argument there and attempted pulling of strings. But, contrary to Brussels/Washington/Kiev assumptions, Moscow does not control the fighters in Novorossiya; they have a vote too and they want out (you would too after this).

THEN. Ukraine news broadcast, one year ago today: pretty trivial stuff, eh? Bet a lot of Ukrainians wish it was the same today instead of the spreading catastrophe.

FOREWARNED IS… NOTHING, APPARENTLY. Report from US Embassy in Kiev 2008. “Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war.”

INTELLIGENCE. I have been pretty contemptuous of the “evidence” presented by Washington and NATO. I’m not alone: here are some former intelligence professionals equally scornful. Indeed, so pathetic is the “evidence” that it suggests the whole Ukraine thing is being run out of State and the White House with minimal involvement from Langley or the Pentagon. By the way, the OSCE monitors on the scene report none of the things NATO and Washington are saying.

REVERSE FLOW GAS SUPPLY TO UKRAINE? Maybe not such a good idea, after all. Probably not legal either.

CONFUSED. Is the Mistral sale cancelled, deferred, or what? You figure it out. What about more EU sanctions? Coming tomorrow; they’re tied to the the ceasefire; some members say “no”. Moscow has retaliation ready. Astute observers notice that Russia is shrewdly helping its domestic production and that of the BRICS. And Russian GDP is still growing. On the other hand, Europe is hurting.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

THE BATTLEFIELD. The rebels have scored huge gains: more “cauldrons”, re-taken the height of Saur-Mogila and reached the sea. People who don’t think Col Cassad is a good source can stick with the BBC and wonder, while looking at the attached map, how the rebels can be in Novoazovsk; or how the Russian aid convoy got into “surrounded” Lugansk. Rather than admit that it has been robotically re-typing Kiev’s press releases, the Western MSM will shout that the Russians must have invaded but “If Russia was sending its regular troops, we wouldn’t be talking about the battle of Elenovka here. We’d be talking about a battle of Kiev or a possible capture of Lvov”. Kiev isn’t sure what to say: the same official spokesman: Russian invasion? Yes, No; take your pick. The Western MSM is not doing due diligence. How many invasions has it reported? April, June, July. The Russian “buildup on the border”, always alarming, always threatening, whatever the numbers: “very, very sizable” in March, 40K or none in April, 12K in July, 20K in August. They must think we have 20-second attention spans. Two sites to counter the various manifestations of the Western Pravda: the Saker and Cassad.

NOW, SUDDENLY the Germans suggest federalisation, Ashton recommends Kiev get along with Russia, the EU suggests an accommodation with the Customs Union might be possible. Good ideas in March and really good ideas a year ago; but it was all “civilisational choice” then. Kiev is losing on the battlefield, it’s bankrupt, winter is coming, the Europeans don’t want their paid-for gas being siphoned off by Kiev, Russian sanctions are biting.

SPONTANEOUS MAIDAN? It has been revealed that the EU spent €496 million subsiding front groups in Ukraine between 2004 and 2013. Then we have Victoria Nuland’s US$5 billion. Brussels and Washington lit the fuse, the fire is burning. Easy to start; hard to finish.

KEY QUESTIONS. On 21 February there was an agreement; then the snipers. July a ray of hope, then MH17. What’s going to derail it now? Who wants Ukraine to get worse? Will the Europeans be distracted again?

MH17. A report is promised in early September. Is there a secret agreement requiring Kiev’s consent?

DELUSIONS. The West, aided by its synchronised media, gets an idea into its head and can’t get it out again. “Qaddafi is bombing his own people”, so a no-fly zone is the answer; but he wasn’t and it morphed into a full intervention. “The resistance in eastern Ukraine is Russia’s creation”; it isn’t : “Frankly speaking, we cannot discuss any conditions for a ceasefire or possible agreements between Kiev, Donetsk and Lugansk. This is not our business; it is a domestic matter of Ukraine itself.” Poroshenko must talk to the people he’s fighting. And the time for federalisation has passed: “By now so much blood has been spilled and so many people have died for freedom. How can we speak of federalization?”

WHERE DO THE REBELS GET THEIR WEAPONS? A lot is captured. CyberBerkut reports over 200 AFVs and a battalion’s worth of Grads. This site attempts to record them, with photos: it claims 214 armoured vehicles captured and 37 artillery pieces. For the interested, here’s how a “cauldron” (котёл) is formed; Finns would know it as motti.

MINSK. Putin and Poroshenko met. Here’s Putin’s account: EU association will disrupt present trade agreements with Russia and cost everyone something; Kiev has to talk to Donetsk and Lugansk itself. I guess this is Poroshenko’s: Russians invaded, staying at home, must make a plan.

RUSSIA’S “ISOLATION”. Egyptian president visits; military exercises with China and India; the Mistrals will be delivered. To say nothing of all the new rhetoric coming out of Europe. In a surreal development, Washington is apparently trying to get Beijing to sanction Russia!

STIRRINGS. Pravy Sektor’s head issued an ultimatum to make certain changes, threatening to march on Kiev. He withdrew the threat the next day, claiming sufficient compliance. An economics minister resigned as did the the head of the anti-corruption effort. A field commander has called the high command incompetent or traitors. Protesters in Kiev today demand resignations of Poroshenko and defence minister. Poroshenko dissolved parliament: “Dozens of these so-called ‘people’s deputies’ form the fifth column.”

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

MH17. Still nothing from Washington to respond to the Russian briefing 17 days ago. I remind you of the central points because I’ll bet your local media outlet hasn’t: 1. Nearby Ukrainian fighter plane. 2. Ukrainian Buk system in range. 3. The film supposedly showing a Russian Buk TELAR being taken back to Russia is a fake. 4. The US was watching. But maybe there was a reaction: unnamed intelligence people said “we don’t know a name, we don’t know a rank and we’re not even 100 percent sure of a nationality”. Therefore there is only one conclusion that a rational person can come to: the White House and State Department do not have the evidence to back up what they are saying. The “black boxes” arrived in the UK and a spokesman from the Department of Transport said it should take about 2 days to download and decipher their information. That was 2 weeks ago. So who did shoot it down? I don’t know, but here’s some things to read. Ukrainian Buk; not possible from the rebel position at Snizhne. Ukrainian Buk but fired by “rogue elements” without Kiev’s knowledge. A Ukrainian fighter plane. Ukrainian Buk, but maybe an accident (it’s happened before). If you don’t like these alternative sources, see the officials. (Watch the whole video, Dear Reader, if you haven’t seen the State Department spokesteam in action before. Then you can wonder whether she briefs Obama. See below).

YUKOS. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague decided that Russia should pay US$50 billion to former Yukos oil company shareholders. Pretty questionable decision says this man and I agree: for one thing, it would seem to contradict this earlier European verdict. Get ready for another juridical farce: Pussy Riot want €250,000.

SANCTIONS. Are starting to bite. In Europe that is. It’s not that Russia is such a huge market; the important point is that it’s one of the few the EU has that is growing and that’s why investor morale has taken a big dive. Russia has retaliated with a ban of food imports from sanctioners. €12 billion, 1.2 billion USD, 500 million CAD. Rather a clever move, actually – a boost to Russian agriculture and to BRICS exporters; I suspect that, at the end, we will have lost the market for good.

SYRIA. The OPCW reports that almost a third of CW removed earlier from Syria has been destroyed. Remember last August’s headlines?

THE US DOLLAR. “Russia Sanctions Accelerate Risk to Dollar Dominance” say Bloomberg. Russia and India bypass dollar. Likewise Russia and Iran.

RUSSIAN ISOLATION. India says no change in relationship with Russia and maybe more connections coming. China wants closer ties. Things are developing so quickly here that it’s hard to keep up.

THE UNCERTAINTY OF FORMER CERTAINTIES. An investigation group finds evidence of serious war crimes by the Kosovo Liberation Army. Georgia has filed criminal charges against Saakashvili.

UNPREPARED. A British parliamentary committee says that NATO is not prepared for a Russian attack against a member. The world’s largest alliance can’t deal with a attack by a “gas station” that “makes nothing”? NATO outspends Russia 11 to one and has 4 times as many soldiers. Common sense has just gone out the window, hasn’t it? More craziness “How to Solve the Putin Problem”.

OBAMA INTERVIEW. Stunningly ignorant and arrogant: everything he said about Russia is wrong and he managed to patronise China as well. Here are two take-aparts of his 100% wrong statements on Russia.

DESPICABLE BEHAVIOUR. Dutch PM then, “shocked by disrespectful behaviour”; Dutch PM now: “more was done after the disaster than we thought”. Can we expect an apology?

UKRAINE. The revolution continues: Communist party (32 seats in 2012) outlawed. Government falls. Poroshenko says the Rada is infiltrated with fifth columnists. Reports of resistance in the west to conscription. 400 soldiers crossed into Russia to surrender; rumours of more coming. Atrocities in the east, stagnation and corruption in Kiev. No hot water in Kiev. Burning tires in the Maidan again. No money. High casualties. Victory is near, but the supply people have just been fired. Nearly three-quarters of a million have fled to Russia. For contrast, here’s the news one year ago today.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

BRICS. When I first saw the expression BRIC, it seemed just a catchy name for an incidental grouping. But something is emerging. Emerging, I believe, largely in response to Washington’s actions. After so many governments overthrown followed by the insouciant unconcern for the consequences (Libya is the paradigm), absolutely inexplicable (except to the direst conspiracy theorist) actions like supporting jihadists in one place and fighting them in another, more and more countries are coming to two conclusions. The first is that Washington is the cause of most of the world’s instability and that, under present management at least, it simply cannot be trusted or relied on. And, some wonder who’s next for a “colour revolution”. So the BRICS evolve: from a cliché, into a loose association, into a economic and political player. And not an insignificant player: the two most populous countries, two UNSC members, three nuclear powers, significant conventional military power, one economy the biggest or soon will be, three more in the top ten. Not insignificant at all. Yesterday they took another step against the Bretton Woods arrangement, which many see as the foundation of Washington’s power, establishing a Development Bank and reserve currency pool. Their own World Bank and IMF. Early days to be sure, much can go wrong but a step towards a rather different power structure.

DIVISIONS. Washington issues more sanctions, but Europe lags. (Maybe I’m missing something, but the European Council conclusion sounds like the square route of nothing). Who would have thought, 20 years ago, that Ukraine would become so important.

UNIPOLAR WORLD. Failed says Putin; tranquillity says the White House.

LOURDES. The Soviets built a SIGINT base in Cuba in 1962. Putin, at Washington’s request, closed it in 2002. It is about to be re-opened. Perfect illustration of Putin’s trajectory from thinking that cooperation with Washington was possible to realising that it isn’t.

QUOTE OF THE DAY. From a Lugansk militia fighter: “The western regions twice overthrew the government, without consulting us; and so we thought – live however you like, and we will build our life the way we like. And that’s when you came and started killing us.”

UKRAINE. The ceasefire agreed to by representatives from Russia, France, Germany and Ukraine never happened: Poroshenko either does not have the power to deliver or was lying. Another attempt is being made to revivify it. But the problem remains: who is in charge in Kiev? Fighting continues: the resistance’s loss of Slavyansk was compensated for by the destruction of a Kiev column. Kiev seems to have just suffered a major defeat near Lugansk with another coming: a substantial force is pinned at the border and may be close to surrender or annihilation. In short, the resistance is more than holding its own. There are now about half a million refugees in Russia, predominantly women and children. Indiscriminate bombardment of civilian areas is not, as one would expect, winning Kiev much support in the east; neither is conscription in the west. Is Moscow helping? Certainly with the refugees but in other ways? After months of false assertions from NATO and Washington, duly re-typed by the MSM, there is no real evidence of significant flows of weapons or soldiers. I can believe that Moscow is helping surreptitiously, perhaps with targeting information and some weapons, but I have no problem believing that the resistance gets most of its weapons from Soviet-era dumps, deserting Ukrainian conscripts and captures. I remain convinced that Moscow is trying to build a consensus for a diplomatic solution, but that becomes less probable every day. Terrible atrocity stories are starting to appear. The English speaking MSM coverage is mostly one-sided and worthless but there are exceptions like The National Interest and The Nation where one can avoid the mechanical reproduction of Kiev handouts.

RUSSIAN ISOLATION. Still not so lonely. The head of France’s central bank: “A movement to diversify the currencies used in international trade is inevitable.” (A response to the Paribas fine: you’d think Washington was trying to drive away its allies). Putin is having a successful visit to Latin America and the BRICS summit. The Indian Navy is coming for an exercise. Russian businessmen are joining the board of a major Italian company. But, most striking of all, the US Department of Commerce says US exports to Russia reached a new record of US$1.25 billion in May.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

DIPLOMACY. We can’t see below the surface but there are continuing diplomatic efforts around the Ukraine crisis. We keep hearing of conversations involving Moscow, Paris, Berlin, the OSCE and (rather interestingly) Vienna. Kiev is involved of course but, it appears, at a lower level; almost as a child whose fate is being decided by adults. What does seem to be true is that these discussions, of which we see only the surface ripples, involve Moscow but not Washington. This may reflect the fact that, as the Polish Foreign Minister – hitherto such a loyal follower – is beginning to find out (“The Polish-American alliance is not worth anything”), Washington has nothing positive to offer. (Incidentally, these phone intercepts are fascinating; the authenticity is never denied, the only reactions are whining that it has been done). There is an agreement. This is all to the good, but there is still much to do and one may question whether the new rulers in Kiev control the situation on the ground. One should remember the 21 February agreement, which reminds us of another intercepted telephone call. But, thinking of yet another intercept, maybe “Yats” wouldn’t have been been PM under that agreement and it had to be changed.

TERGIVERSATION. Watch this reaction by a US State Department official to the UNHCR finding that over 100,000 Ukrainians have fled to Russia. But admitting they had would disprove Washington’s line.

SPONTANEITY. A Polish newspaper reports that Polish police trained 86 members of Pravy Sektor, the Ukrainian neo-nazi organisation, “in combat tactics, protection against gas, leadership and use of weapons to be used by snipers” in autumn of 2013. Before the protests began. (The paper is left-wing and excitable and one would want more corroboration but, these days, what is there in the NYT and other mainstream outlets that you can believe? Photos of Russian Spetsnaz, Russian hackers?)

ATROCITIES. The US and its allies continue to cover up the atrocities their new friends in Ukraine are committing. And, how exactly does the regime in Kiev expect to win the hearts and minds of eastern Ukrainians by doing this?

PROPAGANDA. In its eagerness to get another “Putin is a monster” meme laid down, the Guardian didn’t do its research. Condemning a new ordinance in Russia that prohibits swearing, it failed to spend the 30 seconds on Google that would have told it that the same laws exist in the UK. But the WMSM is not interested in reporting reality but rather in building an anti-Russia consensus. More “brown water.”

ECONOMY. The statistics agency has announced that unemployment in Russia is at its lowest point since the end of USSR. Using ILO methodology, 3.7 million, or 4.9% of the economically active population are so classified. And Russia expects to export over 20 million tonnes of grain this year.

BREAKING THE US DOLLAR. “The ultimate goal would be to break the Washington’s money printing machine that is feeding its military-industrial complex and giving the US ample possibilities to spread chaos across the globe, fueling the civil wars in Libya, Iraq, Syria and Ukraine.” Latest development.

MEANWHILE, OUTSIDE THE BELTWAY. Russia’s isolation is not as lonely as some would want you to think. Austria signed on to the South Stream pipeline. Iran (soon a new US ally?) wants more reactors. India is interested in a big gas deal. US businesses are not happy with more sanctions. BP and RosNeft just signed an agreement. Baghdad is happy to see the Russian Su-25s . Maybe change in the Beltway too.

CHEMICAL WEAPONS. The OPCW confirms the withdrawal of the last consignment of CW stockpiles from Syria. Meanwhile ISIS has seized the CW stockpiles in Iraq. (If you’re confused, Dear Reader and ask what Iraqi CW stockpiles?! Well, the WMSM hasn’t been entirely truthful with you.)

CRIMEA. In 1979 the novel Island of Crimea was published. The fantasy was Crimea actually was an island and that it had remained in the possession of the Whites after the Civil War. It thus represented a sort of alternative, non-communist Russia. It will now stand as an alternate Ukraine.

EU AGREEMENTS. Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine signed the EU association agreement. We are expected to believe Moscow was unable to prevent little Moldova or Georgia from signing but able to prevent big Ukraine from doing so. They will likely be sorry they did: the EU cannot pour the billions, that Poland and other “early adopters” received, into their decrepit economies. The rewards will be deferred but the costs immediate.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

LIES. The Western MSM is lying to you about what’s happening in Ukraine. Please take the time to read this: “Ukrainian Genocide and its Cheerleaders” by Vera Graziadei. She dispassionately makes the case that the horrors being visited upon the eastern Ukrainians (and that is what they are – they have passports) by the junta in Kiev are no accident. She provides hyperlinks to prove the facts she mentions. As another veracity check, consider the three tanks. We are expected by the White House and by NATO to believe that Russia has finally invaded. With, not 30, not 300, but 3 tanks. Here is the stuff put out by NATO; take the large photo, blow up the tiny outlines and see whether you can see in them what NATO claims is there. And finally, after weeks of claiming a proven Russian presence in east Ukraine (8 April: “It is clear that Russian special forces and agents have been the catalysts behind the chaos of the last 24 hours.”) Kerry urged Poroshenko to “to provide evidence of Russian involvement with separatists with which to confront Russian officials”. Remember the NYT photos? The “Russian colonel”? The letter to Jews? It’s “brown water” again.

RUSSIA, CHINA AND THE US DOLLAR. I believe that for Moscow and Beijing, and other capitals as yet unheard from (it is more informative to see the UN vote as 100-93) Washington’s behaviour on Ukraine is the last straw. Washington simply cannot be trusted; its actions are disruptive (a view strengthened by ISIS in Iraq). One of the pillars of American power is the position of the US Dollar. It is not a coincidence that one of Putin’s advisors has just published a piece arguing that the USD must be undermined (aimed, I believe, at convincing the Europeans that Washington is going to pull them down with it). Russia and China will set up a joint ratings agency to assess common projects and cooperate on monetary policy. But what really struck my attention was the meeting of the Secretary of the Russian Security Council and President Xi in Beijing; it was reported that the Chinese said they would combine with Moscow to “tackle threats, and safeguard their sovereignty, security and development interests”. Pretty close to a military and political alliance isn’t it? This is all happening very quickly indeed. Meanwhile, it is reported that Gazprom has concluded agreements with a number of customers to switch payments from USD to Euros.

POROSHENKO. He was announced the winner and, as I predicted, Washington, its followers and the OSCE happily accepted the result. Some people are a little surprised that Moscow is calling him “President” but that is because they don’t understand. Moscow is well aware that Poroshenko is Washington’s nominee and also aware that at the present circumstances, only such could appear. But there’s no point in being all high and mighty: if a neighbouring country wishes to toss its constitution (read Art 111), it still has to be dealt with. Will he make any difference? I’m sceptical of his “ceasefire” but we will see.

GAS. According to Gazprom, Ukraine’s Naftohaz owes it US$4 billion for gas already received. After numerous extensions, it has now declared that there will no more gas for Ukraine unless it is cash in advance. The problem for European customers is that some of their gas transits Ukraine; as the BBC admitted, “There is a danger for EU nations that Ukraine will start taking the gas Russia had earmarked for its European clients, something it did when it was cut off from Russian gas during previous disputes in 2006 and 2009”. This whole adventure is turning out badly: either Brussels & Co puts up the money Gazprom wants, or they risk their new friends in Kiev stealing their gas. Or blowing up the pipeline. As Yarosh has threatened.

POLITKOVSKAYA MURDER. The court has sentenced the participants to jail terms: life in the case of the organiser and killer. They were tried and acquitted in 2009 but the Supreme Court ordered a re-trial. It is widely believed that the murder was ordered by a “mastermind” who has never been found or named.

EXERCISES. Busy Baltic: two NATO exercises and a Russian one. As a not-so-subtle hint, in the Russian one, a small ship is reported to have engaged and destroyed a sea target simulating an enemy warship.

BMD. A piece in a US newspaper argues that the US missile defence system is simply not reliable.

TROUBLE IN PARADISE. Protests in Abkhazia have led to the resignation of the President and Prime Minister. I take my lead from George Hewitt who is not happy.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

RUSSIA-CHINA. The big story of the… what? Decade? Century? We’ll see. The big gas deal was signed; we don’t know all the details but 30 years, 38 bcm/year, $400 billion, $70 billion of infrastructure are some of the numbers. But not in USD; bank agreement to use renminbi/rubles; joint production agreements; statements chiding the USA; cooperation in foreign affairs. “Multipolar” was heard a lot. And, we are told, sales of the S-400 air defence system coming. More details will trickle out. One cannot help seeing it as a predictable consequence of the Western anti-Russia campaign of which Ukraine is just the latest and most transparent.

SANCTIONS. Russia is finally starting to respond. I wonder if anyone in the White House or Foggy Bottom was aware that the US military depended on Russian-made rocket engines to launch their satellites. They are now. Maybe six years to develop an alternative. The US sanctions affected some VISA and Mastercard users in Russia, Moscow reacted and now the two wonder whether they can continue operations there. Thus far nothing about getting US astronauts to and from the ISS or US forces’ supply routes to Afghanistan. It transpires that Russia did indeed dump billions of US securities (immediately bought by “Belgium”); then it bought gold. Will there be more of this? Possibly involving China now? After all, the new Russia-China friendship reduces what you might call USA Futures Inc. Pepe Escobar ties the various possibilities together; highly recommended reading, he’s certainly got a lot of it correct.

ABSURDITY. Watch this and tell me “incompetent” is not the appropriate word for the US Administration. What’s Putin’s next stop? Alaska, of course. It is apparently Russia that is bringing “fascism” to Ukraine; Svoboda and Pravy Sektor being unimportant. “China signs $400 billion deal to prop up Russia’s economy as it becomes isolated”. Loud stupidity is still stupidity.

SYRIAN CW. We are told by the OPCW that 92% of Syrian’s CW stock is already out of the country.

FEARLESS PREDICTION. Ukraine is supposed to have a presidential election next week. Despite the fact that one candidate has pulled out because he kept getting beaten up by Anne Applebaum’s “patriots” and another has dropped out because he sees them as illegitimate, that many areas in the east won’t vote at all and that they are under attack, that one of the two likely winners, neither of whom could be called “new”, says, if not elected, there will be a “third round of revolution”; despite all that, we may be confident that the USA, the OSCE, EU and so on will say the election was perfectly acceptable.

JACKALS. The Hungarian PM has called for autonomy for ethnic Hungarians living in other countries. There are said to be 200,000 in Ukraine, entitled, says he, to citizenship and self-administration.

UKRAINE MISCELLANY. Referendums in Donetsk and Lugansk went as expected; the atrocity in Odessa is actually being investigated by Ukrainian officials and results so far do not accord with bland Western MSM accounts that fire “broke out”. Likewise the Ukrainian investigator tells us that there is no forensic evidence linking Berkut to sniper killings in Kiev. (Pretty important pillars of the Official Western Narrative, by the way). One of the EU’s “presidents” politely hopes EU gas supplies will not be disrupted; for some reason he sent the letter to Moscow not Kiev. (Can this this flabby plea be the answer to Putin’s letter?). Moscow has said cash in advance as of 1 June, but is still trying for something else. Kiev’s efforts to bring the east and south to heel are failing; indeed they’re having the opposite effect: who wants to stay in a country where you are terrorists? The West persists in calling them “pro-Russian”. Some are, but many want to live in a Ukraine not run by Pravy Sektor, Svoboda and the like; the latter being condemned, in other times, by the EU. It is not, and never has been, a united space on the map and cannot be run as if there were, to kick Applebaum’s nonsense again, a “patriotic Ukrainian” monoview.

REPORTING. Western reporting in Ukraine remains pretty faithful to the party line but a few things are appearing to shake it. Some reports in the German media that the US mercenary company formerly known as Blackwater have 400 people in Ukraine. (Denial by company here and by White House here). Paris Match has a piece arguing that Pravy Sektor goons killed unarmed civilians in an attack on a polling station in Krasnoarmeysk. I am amused to see the BBC saying: “There is a danger for EU nations that Ukraine will start taking the gas Russia had earmarked for its European clients, something it did when it was cut off from Russian gas during previous disputes in 2006 and 2009.” I say “amused” because my memory last time was that the BBC was reporting on the sinister “Russian gas weapon”. But, in general, the Western media is in full propaganda mode, the currently most outrageous example being Applebaum’s attempt to whitewash this.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

SUSTAINED AND ABSOLUTE INCOMPETENCE. Monday 21st: front page story on NYT “Photos Link Masked Men in East Ukraine to Russia”, ah hah! proof at last!; a bit of doubt surfaces on Wednesday; entire story trashed Thursday: “Aftermath of Ukraine Photo Story Shows Need for More Caution”. When I was a kid, CIA confections lasted a lot longer than a couple of days. So, into the bin along with the Jewish registration letter, captured “OSCE observers” and soon to be followed by the new intercepts. All I see from Washington is desperation piled on incompetence: none of this has turned out the way it was supposed to and no one has any idea of what to do next. So turn the volume up, desperately clutch at any story, hysterically accuse RT of propaganda when all it’s doing is accurately quoting you, announce more sanctions based on the dopey assumption that Putin has billions stashed in the West and move military forces to irrelevant places like Poland or Romania. The Micawber school of diplomacy.

CONTAINMENT. “Containment” is the new mantra for dealing with Russia in Washington these days. But has anyone there read the original? (Original telegram, subsequent article). Apart from the fact that George Kennan was strongly against NATO expansion, which is one of the two Original Sins of today’s Ukrainian catastrophe, the conditions Kennan saw in 1946 simply do not apply today. In essence Kennan was arguing that the inner constructions and logical implications of the Marxist-Leninist ideology did not correspond well with reality and therefore, over the long haul, it would not survive. Assuming that the USA would survive because it was better connected to reality, he expected the USA to outlast the USSR, given patience and prudence. This proved correct over the next half-century. Who believes this to be the case today other than the few crazies who still think Marxism-Leninism rules in Russia? And, speaking of perception of reality, one might compare any statement by Lavrov with Slaughter’s article below or any bloviation from Kerry. Or, thinking long-term as Kennan did, who can be confident that the USA will be Number One in 50 years? Or 25? Or even 10? They say China is about to become the premier economy this year. Deng’s reforms began only 35 years ago… What will the world look like in another 35?

CRAZINESS. To give you an idea of the level of impassioned lunacy in Washington these days, read “Stopping Russia Starts in Syria”. Essentially the argument is that Obama should bomb Syria in order to show Putin he is serious about using force. Or something. “Striking Syria might not end the civil war there, but it could prevent the eruption of a new one in Ukraine”. Gibbering nonsense, eh? And incoherently erected on idiotic assumptions. But the author is not some bizarro from the outer fringes of the Net; it is Anne-Marie Slaughter, academic and quondam director of policy planning in the US State Department and now President of the New America Foundation. Mainstream madness.

KIEV’S WEAKNESS. Another US official visits, another “anti-terrorist operation”, another fizzle. This piece (rather poorly translated) gives a clue why. We have already seen in previous events that what remains of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are unwilling to get involved – even the supposedly elite airborne forces handed over their weapons rather than shoot. The so-called special forces are no better. The local police sympathise with the rebels. Now we see the ineffectiveness of the new “National Guard” made up of western Ukrainian nationalists: not even they, under-equipped, unfed and unpaid, are willing or competent. Kiev simply hasn’t got anyone to do its will no matter how much Biden and Brennan might prod it. And a couple of nights ago a riot between two different flavours of super-nationalists in Kiev itself. “Ukraine” no longer exists; Washington and Brussels have broken it in half.

NAVY. Russia has handed over to Ukraine 13 of the 70 Ukrainian Navy warships it acquired when their crews switched sides.

CONSEQUENCES. Debka (which I regard as not always wrong) claims Putin has approved the sale of the S-400 SAM system to China. Said to be pretty advanced; here’s some marketing porn for it. And other signs of closeness: big investment, naval exercise. The first fruits of the many unintended consequences of Victoria Nuland’s grand scheme.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)