RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 26 March 2015

PUTIN’S DISAPPEARANCE. Western media outlets, governments and “experts” beclown themselves. Again.

CRIMEA, THE WAY HOME. Крым Путь на Родину. Here it is with English subtitles. Watch it: Korsun showed Crimeans what was coming, Berkut provided a seed crystal for self-defence and taught them how to recognise and suppress a “spontaneous” demo (go to 41).

WESTERN VALUES™ PART 1. Andrei Babitsky, once a certified hero journalist speaking truth to Putin, has been fired. It’s not enough to be 99% anti-Putin, it must be 100% all the time. Read this.

NEMTSOV MURDER. Remember that? The investigators stick to their story: Dadayev did kill him; ordered by Adam Osmayev, commander of Jokhar Dudayev Battalion in Kiev forces, to embarrass Putin. This raises the possibility that the Charlie Hebdo connection was just the hook to get Dadayev to do it.

SNOWDEN. The German Vice Chancellor says Washington threatened to cease sharing intelligence if Berlin offered him asylum or allowed him to travel there. Deduction: if Germany was threatened, so was everyone else. We know that the Bolivian President’s plane was forced down (so much for Obama’s promise). Evidently, a lot of pressure was applied. One country refused to knuckle under. What do you suppose that has to do with current events?

RUSSIAN ECONOMY. Piece here from a rational observer. Not too bad but wait and see. Another agreeing.

QUOTE OF THE YEAR. The German Foreign Minister told US Secretary of State John Kerry “it’s far too early to pat our shoulders and take pride in what we have achieved” in Ukraine. Thousands dead and maimed, immense property damage, economic ruin, oligarch wars, neo-nazis, war talk. Much too early.

WESTERN VALUES™ PART 2. Turns out that the Clinton Foundation got lots of money from a Ukrainian oligarch. No effect on policy of course.

MINSK II. Kiev has broken it. Item 4 called for “a dialogue” “on modalities of conducting local elections”. Instead the Ukraine parliament passed a law saying that elections can only begin after the areas are returned to Kiev’s control. No dialogue there. By the way, read the agreement: Moscow is required to do nothing, Kiev much. So when the WMSM tells you Moscow has broken it, as it will, ask yourself what part of the agreement it’s broken. A resumption of war is likely, and the end result will be the same. But this time, I expect Moscow to really intervene (why bother with another agreement Kiev won’t keep?) And, when it does, there will be no need for blurry satellite photos and reporters who forgot their smart phones. But, should the oligarch war get violent – see below – there will be no requirement.

OLIGARCH WARS. Have started. Still very murky but here is what we know. Ihor Kolomoysky is someone your media outlets have not told you much about: an oligarch, funder of many private armed formations, suspected of many atrocities (MH-17 shootdown?), he was appointed Governor of Dnepropetrovsk in the new oligarch-free European-style Ukraine and hailed as a patriot by the ever-accommodating WMSM. Parliament passed a law that would have reduced his control of certain oil companies. He sent armed men to take over two head offices. Poroshenko said no more private military organisations would be tolerated. Yesterday he dismissed him as Governor of Dnepropetrovsk. Not over yet; in theory Kolomoysky has a lot of armed forces that answer to him. WMSM and State Department spin will be entertaining to watch.

“DRAGOON RIDE”. The brainchild of the excitable General Hodges, a US army column will travel through several east European countries: “to assure those allies that live closest to the Bear that we are here”. Ludicrous: a cavalry squadron, an insignificant light force, will probably only make people nervous. There should be some amusement as it proceeds through the Czech Republic: the locals have been warned not to throw vegetables at it and the Czech Army will escort it. Moscow will only be more contemptuous. And that’s assuming there are no embarrassing breakdowns, lapses in discipline, traffic accidents, protests etc.

“PUTIN’S INFORMATION WAR”. No wonder the West is having trouble selling its story: “The product they’re selling is not very attractive overseas”. “if you’re going to say someone is a poisonous liar who traffics in conspiracy theories, then you should show that. That the Post doesn’t seem to feel the need to do so either means the evidence isn’t there, or that the burden of proof is very low when it comes to official enemies”. Western governments wouldn’t be whining unless they knew their story was failing.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 12 March 2015

A SPLIT AT LAST? Many of us have been wondering how much longer Europe will harm and abase itself in Washington’s service. Has the crack finally opened? You must read this: Der Spiegel, quoting the German Chancellery, is saying that NATO and Washington are lying. “German leaders in Berlin were stunned. They didn’t understand what Breedlove was talking about. And it wasn’t the first time.” “The German government is alarmed. Are the Americans trying to thwart European efforts at mediation led by Chancellor Angela Merkel? Sources in the Chancellery have referred to Breedlove’s comments as ‘dangerous propaganda’.” “No wonder, then, that people in Berlin have the impression that important power brokers in Washington are working against the Europeans”. The EU foreign policy chief says the EU will not allow itself to be dragged into confrontation with Moscow. Rather late but welcome nevertheless. Perhaps this explains why Washington took its first step to de-escalate by postponing sending troops to Ukraine. In Washington’s war against Russia, it’s Europe that is paying and, should fighting spread out of Ukraine, it is where it will be fought.

MORE DE-ESCALATION? Zbigniew Brzezinski (“without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire”) now says Washington should assure Moscow that Ukraine will never be in NATO. Of course NATO and the EU are already pretty tightly joined (more tightly than people realise) but that’s something.

NEMTSOV MURDER. The official story, never particularly convincing, has taken another hit. Sputnik reports the chair of the Moscow Public Oversight Commission says neither suspect has admitted involvement and the Russian Presidential Human Rights Council wonders whether the earlier confession was beaten out of them. The Saker is also unconvinced.

HOW STUPID DO THEY THINK WE ARE? NATO which claims to see Russian tanks crossing the border, admits “it’s unclear to what destination” weapons withdrawn according to the Minsk provisions have been moved to. Is this ignorance an indication that Kiev is indeed faking the pullback, or is NATO, as the Germans say, just making everything up?

MH17. Remember MH17? World’s biggest story until suddenly it wasn’t? Coverup says a Dutch reporter. (Video). No evidence of a Buk, but plenty of evidence of air-to-air missiles and cannon shots in the wreckage. Maybe that’s why we hear so little about it.

CORRUPTION. The Governor of Sakhalin has been arrested on suspicion of involvement in a bribery scandal connected with a contract bid.

HMMM. Remember that story about the Russian aircraft shutting down the USS Donald Cook? I didn’t take it seriously until I read that a Russian company delivered the first of its helicopter-mounted jamming systems to the Russian Armed Forces. Add in stories of submarines “sinking” carriers… Take carriers and Aegis out of the US surface fleet and all you have are expensive targets.

CRIMEA. The former Japanese PM visited Crimea and says what he saw there convinced him that the secession referendum reflected popular will. Two polls agree with him. Here is some background on Crimea-in-Ukraine: many votes to get out. By the way, Catherine did not “conquer” or “acquire” Crimea in 1792; lost to the Mongols five and a half centuries earlier, she re-acquired it. Ditto Novorossiya.

NEW NWO. Chinese have a liking for enigmatic and poetical statements. But Washington is so bound up in talking to itself that it doesn’t hear. So the Chinese Ambassador to Belgium put it a bit more bluntly: Washington’s involvement in Ukraine could “become a distraction in its foreign policy… The United States is unwilling to see its presence in any part of the world being weakened, but the fact is its resources are limited, and it will be to some extent hard work to sustain its influence in external affairs.” Russia is working on its alternative to SWIFT and Beijing says its will be in place by the end of the year.

IMPERIAL OVERSTRETCH. Venezuela is now a threat to the USA. How many is that now? “During the fiscal year that ended on September 30, 2014, U.S. Special Operations forces (SOF) deployed to 133 countries”. Resources “limited”, “to some extent hard work to sustain”, “distraction to foreign policy”.

UKRAINE BOWS TO IMF. A leaked document tells us it’s the usual “austerity package”: big increases in energy prices, 20% cut in state employees, reduction in schools, retirement age increased and so on. The usual results and misery will follow and, when Ukraine has been asset-stripped, the apology.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 26 February 2015

DEBALTSEVO. The Kiev forces abandoned the “cauldron” leaving enormous quantities of equipment behind (including the last of the 3 counter mortar radars the US supplied) and many corpses. Poroshenko is completely delusional (“betrayal” is a good word) and his delusion is shared by Washington – read it and watch it; for reality, here are the words of the people trapped there. There’s nothing more that can be said – the Kiev forces were fully surrounded before Minsk, Poroshenko refused to believe it, the WMSM believed him (Again. Why?) and, of course Washington and its megaphones are pretending that it was some sort of violation. Supplying more weapons to the side that started with most of the heavy weapons and all of the air is supposed to do what, exactly? (Well, Kiev is fresh out of US counter-mortar radars). Debaltsevo short film, long film. There’s lots out there: take the time you would otherwise waste watching “the news” to look at them; it’s also perfectly obvious that these are not Russian soldiers but locals who want to get out of the freak show.

CEASEFIRE. After the Kiev forces retreated in a so-called “orderly fashion”, Debaltsevo has been cleared out. Gradually, grudgingly, heavy weapons are being pulled back to locations where they will be out of range. Another shattering defeat for Kiev – the Western sources blame it all on Russia but they are wrong. Sending unwilling, untrained conscripts and crazed neo-nazi fanatics, led by incompetents, up against defenders of their kith and kin is not a winning combination in any place or time. Read what a British Army “volunteer” had to say but forget the “poor kit stuff” – the militias had exactly the same weapons – the very same in many cases. I doubt this is the end, if for no other reason than the neo-nazis don’t want to give up: Yarosh’s own words. Protest in Kiev yesterday.

FOOLS, LIARS AND HYSTERIA. Chaos in Libya is nothing to do with NATO. John Kerry says “Ukrainians are coming together to define their own future”. Existential threat to the military alliance that spends 56% of the world’s total! Russian Latvian aircraft attack. Must spend more money because RT is winning the propaganda battle (the USA outspends RT 3 to 1 and then there’s the BBC to add on.) Can’t get Russian weapons on e-Bay (get them here or Ukrainian Lend-Lease, repair them here). Will this bubble of hysteria get bigger and louder until it pops? Or will it lead us into war with Russia? “American foreign policy is controlled by fools.”

FAKES. First a US Senator and then a German TV channel caught using old photos as “proof” of Russian invasions. Trees and mountains, people, it’s a clue. And the Brits too: don’t you know that photos handed to you by some guy in an alley can be sourced? Guardian backtracks on pseudo-analysis; yes, crater analysis works, sort of, but not from satellite photos. I though the MSM prided itself on its layers of fact checkers. The only rational conclusion remains: if there were real evidence, you’d see it; fake evidence is evidence that there is no evidence. QED.

OOPS. A Lithuanian TV station asked viewers if they had noticed increasing Russian propaganda; 82% responded that it wasn’t “propaganda”, it was true. Truth, not big money, is why Russian “propaganda” is winning. Falsehood is why Western propaganda is losing. That and absurdities.

DE-DOLLARISATION. A few more steps: given the occasional threats that Russia will be kicked out of SWIFT, it has begun to set up its own process. The Duma ratified the BRICS development bank. Russia unloaded more US securities in December (and so did Japan and China).

UKRAINE. Money collapsed, currency controls, rationing, defeats, corpses, destruction. Worse to come. Many many people warned of this 18 months ago. None of its new friends will pour more money down the hole. All they’re going to get are more guns to produce more defeats. Another failure following Kosovo, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya. There are those who think chaos is the aim. If so, another success.

MAIDAN SNIPERS. Probably not a coincidence that just after the BBC actually questions the Party Line, Poroshenko “discovers” that Putindunnit.

IRAN. Russia went along with sanctions and stopped the sale of S-300 SAMs to Iran. It has just offered a more modern system. Washington objects; I doubt Moscow cares any more what Washington thinks. I’ll bet Victoria Nuland told her bosses there was nothing Moscow could do.

SAAKASHVILI. Saakashvili was appointed an advisor to Poroshenko. Tbilisi wants Saakashvili on trial; it’s not amused that Kiev won’t extradite him. Ah! the troubles of Washington’s quondam democratic heroes.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 12 February 2015

AGREEMENT. Ceasefire. Pull-back of heavy weapons. Autonomy talks. OSCE. Does Poroshenko mean it? Can he deliver? Will Washington let him? What happens if there’s a “nazi spring” in Kiev? Or in Galicia? The Donbass wants out. Will the WMSM stop its propaganda? (If Putin is so determined to conquer Ukraine why has he twice signed an agreement by which the Donbass stays there?). There’s no provision for vigorous enforcement. The Debaltsevo pocket isn’t cleared. It’s too much like the last agreement when Kiev forces never pulled back and never stopped shelling. At best, a first small step; at worst, a pause so Kiev can try again (here’s Poroshenko explaining they used the last pause to re-arm).

DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN. Obama says the US “brokered a deal on Ukraine”. Interesting slip: Washington wasn’t part of the 21 February 2014 agreement. Perhaps he’s referring to two American officials deciding the new Ukrainian government without reference (well one) to the EU. The ineffable Jen Psaki explains that’s not what he meant. Perhaps he meant to say “broke the deal”.

IF YOU WANT ENEMIES, WE CAN DO THAT TOO. Revealing photo: why are Putin and Lukashenko smiling and the other three not? Have Hollande and Merkel just had a reality check? Could it be something like this: NATO says it’s taking “necessary measures to respond to the challenges posed by Russia and their strategic implications” and lumps Russia in with “risks and threats” in the southern neighbourhood; “Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is not an isolated incident, but a game-changer in European security”. Should Russia treat these statements from the world’s most powerful military alliance as empty prattle? Or should it ask itself why it’s selling energy to countries that call it an enemy?

MORE REALITY. The Debaltsevo pocket traps several thousand Kiev troops. (Maps and videos). More talk of “betrayal” and the like. It is said that a million Ukrainians of military age have fled to Russia joining another million or so. Here’s a video from eastern Ukraine illustrating the reaction to the latest conscription. Deserters can now be shot. German intelligence says the death toll is more like 50,000. Neo-nazis carefully ignored by WMSM. And the solution is more weapons? Kiev started with most of the weapons and has been regularly defeated. The rebels now even have an aircraft they captured. If you prefer, here’s a Kiev side account: victory all the way!

LITVINENKO DEATH. At last the words “Ichkeria” and “nuclear weapons” have surfaced in the London enquiry. Always been my favourite theory and Gordon Hahn’s too.

ECONOMY. We have official numbers for 2014. GDP was up 0.6%, the January-November trade balance was US$176 billion, up 0.6%; industrial production up 1.7%. On the bad side, the consumer price index rose 7.8% while real disposable income fell 1%. Capital flight (so-called) was US$151.5 billion but 85% of that was actually debt repayment (see below). The RUB/USD exchange worsened from 33 to 56. Oil prices are creeping up gradually. Hardly Obama’s “economy in tatters”.

RUSSIA’S EXTERNAL DEBT. It’s being paid off quickly – here’s a report.

REPORTERS COMMIT REPORTING! “Dramatic video has emerged of the moment a soup kitchen was hit by Ukrainian military rockets.” This is first time I’ve seen a Western media outlet telling the truth that Kiev forces are routinely shelling civilians; always before where the shots come from has been a Great Mystery. “Untold story of the Maidan massacre”! What’s next: suddenly unsuppressed MH17 reports?

SANCTIONS. The Spanish Foreign Minister estimates that Russia’s food sanctions have cost the EU €21 billion. Meanwhile Turkey’s food exports have gone way up. Ditto Argentina’s. Whatever happens, I think the Europeans have lost most of that market.

TURK STREAM. First stages underway. How’s the EU doing on building its connection?

ISOLATED RUSSIA. China again supports Russia. China, Russia and India vow to “build a more just, fair and stable international political and economic order”. An excellent trip to Egypt and, maybe, new relations with Greece. Not “isolated” either.

DELUSION. Saakashvili thinks a properly armed and prepared Ukrainian army has the “spirit” to capture all of Russia. Soros and BHL tell us Ukraine is a “participatory democracy; a noble adventure”. McCain thinks that arming the side that began with all the weapons and lost anyway is a good idea; Graham says it will make him “feel better”. Poroshenko thinks Russian soldiers would carry passports with them.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 29 January 2015

RUSSIA HAS HAD ENOUGH. I agree, as I usually do, with Alexander Mercouris: here and here he argues that Putin and his team have given up trying for a diplomatic solution. Moscow used its influence to stop the rebels’ offensive last year when they believed themselves on the edge of routing the Kiev forces, forced the Minsk ceasefire, made several proposals to Kiev and… nothing. I believe that Putin stopped believing anything the West said after Libya, but I think he kept hoping Europe would not be willing to harm itself in subjugation to Washington. Or maybe he just needed time; time to strengthen links with the BRICS and especially Beijing, time to de-dollarise (Russia is buying a lot of gold), time to build up and exercise the military; time to make his case to the “not-the-world” (I love this cartoon). I’m sure he has the next move figured out and I’m equally sure Brussels, Washington and their dependants will be just as stunned by it as they were the last times.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY. Two takes on it that argue that the situation is serious but recoverable: Goldman Sachs repeats points I have mentioned; Chris Weafer says rally but not boom. Yes inflation is up, yes the Ruble is down, but there much import substitute is going on, industrial and agricultural production continue to rise and unemployment is unchanged. As for rating downgrades, China has a different opinion. Time, as they say, will tell. But I’d bet on China.

DEMOGRAPHICS. Excellent summary by Anatoly Karlin. By the way, Russia now has a higher crude birth rate than anywhere in Europe.

GAS. After welcoming the decision to stop South Stream, the Europeans are starting to realise that they had better build some infrastructure to pick up Russian gas. Nordstream too. Or do without. Or find another supplier. Or something. They’ve got about four years. Here’s the new reality.

FIGHTING. Putin made a last appeal for both sides to withdraw following the Minsk agreements but Kiev attacked. The “cyborgs” were driven out of the airport (your local media outlets took a week or so to tell you: here’s The Guardian saying the Kiev forces had re-taken the airport. They didn’t; cancel your subscription.) Another “cauldron” is forming and the neo-nazis are saying all is lost. What’s their answer: coup or götterdämmerung?

HOW TO READ THE WESTERN MEDIA. When they say Kiev forces have re-taken the airport, know that they have lost it. When they say giving up South Stream was a defeat for Putin, know it was a brilliant counter-move. When they say Russia is isolated (a stopped clock, here’s The Economist in 1999!), know that it is expanding its influence and connections every day. When they say Russians are turning against Putin, know that the opposite is true. When they speak of nation-building in the new Ukraine, know it’s degenerating into armed thuggery (see video). Know that when they speak of Kyrzbekistan, they’re not just stenographers, they’re incompetent stenographers. Take what they say, turn it upside down, and you’ll have a better take on reality.

THE MERKEL MYSTERY. I, like many, thought, when the Ukraine crisis began, that German Chancellor Merkel would prove to be key in settling it. This has not proved to be the case at all; in fact she often throws more fuel on the fire. I believe that Gilbert Doctorow may have the answer. In essence, he believes that Berlin dreams the “pre-WWI dream of Mitteleuropa” with cheap, docile workers in Poland, Ukraine and the others forever. Of course, it hasn’t worked out very well, but that, he thinks, was the plan. There was no “End of History” after all; a rebirth of history it seems.

THE WHEELS ARE COMING OFF THE BUS. A US official expressed concern that Russia and China were narrowing the military-technology gap. Threaten them and they come together; nothing is working out the way it was supposed to, is it? Do people in Washington ever wonder if they’re trying to juggle too many balls at once? And now Greece is throwing grit in the machinery.

DECLARATION OF WAR? The Ukrainian parliament just declared that Russia was an “aggressor state”. Is that a declaration of war? Can Russia now legally go in and stop the killing?

UKRAINE TODAY. Watch this video – your media outlets hide the insanity from you. But we don’t.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 8 January 2015

NEW NWO. The Chinese foreign minister made it plain: “We believe that Russia has opportunities and knowledge to overcome the current problems in the economy. The Chinese-Russian relations of strategic partnership are at a high level, we are always supporting and helping our friend. If the Russian side needs it, we shall offer all possible support we may have”. Why is China doing this? Self-interest: if Washington can bring Russia down, China knows it’s next on the list. Meanwhile China is moving into Latin America. Washington and Brussels have united two powers that can crash their economies at will (at, admittedly, large – but not fatal – cost to themselves.)

TRUTH LEAKS OUT. Despite the best efforts of Western governments and their tame media, bits of truth are slowly – but not quickly enough – leaking out. The head of Stratfor described it as “the most blatant coup in history”. As to neo nazis (long pooh-poohed as a Putin fantasy – here, here and here for example), even the Washington Post admits “But now several of these units, especially those linked to oligarchs or the far right, are revealing a dark side.” Smaller publications can report more reality (Christianity Today or Salon) while the larger, like the NYT, still adhere to the Party Line. Here is a careful piece about neo-nazis and here a compendium on the subject. Read these and decide for yourself if this is a trivial phenomenon. Ignore the election result argument, these people prefer to create fear and compulsion: here, here, here, here. (What would the NYT or Economist say if there were a campaign for “real” Russian names, torchlight parades shouting “Glory to Russia” or guards at Christmas crèches to protect them from Obama?) Even the tame Western “human rights” organisations are starting to notice who’s shelling civilians. “Merkel should emphasize the need for Ukraine’s Defense Ministry to issue clear and specific orders… not to use certain explosive weapons in areas populated by civilians.” The notion that the defenders are destroying their own families’ housing is a little preposterous, isn’t it? Especially when Poroshenko thinks it desirable their children hide in basements. Everybody has a phone camera and a Web link now; hard to control the story.

MILITARY ETC. An amendment to Russia’s military doctrine states NATO expansion and its buildup on Russia’s borders is a threat: not really new, just that Moscow has stopped hinting. Meanwhile, as if to remind Washington – again – that Russia is not Libya or Afghanistan, a third SLBN was handed over to the Navy: these three boats carry 16 Bulava missiles each, each with 6 independently targetable warheads. 288 warheads in new, modern, tested systems. Then a land-based ICBM was successfully tested. We are informed that there are now 295,000 professional soldiers in the Armed Forces with the plan to add another 55,000 in 2015. Meanwhile, the heavy Angara A-5 rocket successfully launched a dummy payload. Russia kept its world-wide lead in space launches with 38.

DAY LATE AND A DOLLAR SHORT. “Because we think it is important that Russia… and NATO are able to work together on important issues, like for instance, fighting terror.” Brilliant idea 15 years ago, good idea 10 years ago, OK idea 5 years ago, today, too late: you can’t call Russia an aggressor and ask for cooperation in one and the same statement.

CHECHNYA. Take ten minutes to watch this. A lot of things are happening you’re not told about.

EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION. First suggested ten years ago by Nazarbayev, it took effect on 1 January. Comprising Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia (joined the next day) it is a free trade zone. We will see how effective it proves to be, born as it is in difficult times. Russia cheekily suggest the EU join: “You really think it is wise to put so much political energy into a free trade agreement with the United States when one has a much more natural trade partner next door right in the neighborhood? At least we don’t treat our chickens with chlorine”.

UKRAINIAN NUCLEAR POWER STATION. Something is happening at the Zaporizhia nuclear power station. There have been some shutdowns – more than one, it seems. Rebel sources say radiation levels have spiked. There may be a connection with nuclear fuel from Westinghouse; dangerous says Moscow. This could be quite serious and there is no reason to believe anything Kiev says about it.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUBLE. After the excitements of the past few days, it seems to have settled down at about 60 to the USD: in short, half the value it was at the beginning of the year. I have seen a number of reasons put forth for its decline; mix and match to your taste. Certainly, the principal cause is the decline in oil prices: compare for example, the Canadian dollar which is now at a a 5-year low. (By the way, contrary to popular opinion, energy is only about 20% of Russia’s GDP). Other explanations. Russian companies, affected by sanctions on their ability to raise loans, are buying foreign currency to pay off their loans. The Central Bank fumbled it. Speculators and hostile action from the USA are other candidates. Take your choice on the implication: Russia has lost the economic war; on the contrary, it is following the strategy that defeated Napoleon and Hitler. And more “out there” theories – my favourite being the “Samson defence”, an attack to weaken Russia before the Eurasian Union kicks into gear next month and the ever-popular Putin soon to be brought down by coup. (But wasn’t Russia Finished years ago?) At any event, it is very dangerous to fool around with a top-ten economy – plenty of downstream effects. It’s not over by a long shot and Beijing has yet to weigh in. By the way, the ruble cost of a barrel of oil is pretty much unchanged and it should be remembered that Russian oil companies spend rubles and earn dollars.

PUTIN SPEECH. As usual, most of the content (68.9% by word count) was domestic: for my money the two most important were a “holiday from inspections” for ordinary companies (Russian officials and legalisms can be pretty predatory) and an amnesty for returning capital (Putin pointed out that the “Cyprus haircut” showed their money isn’t safe outside). He complained about corruption in the military procurement system (not that the former Defence Minister is in jail. On the contrary). Externally, long-stated themes: for Russia, “either we remain a sovereign nation, or we dissolve without a trace and lose our identity”; for the world: “It is imperative to respect the legitimate interests of all the participants in international dialogue.” He’s had enough: “the more ground we give and the more excuses we make, the more our opponents become brazen and the more cynical and aggressive their demeanour becomes” but never closes the door, “Our goal is to have as many equal partners as possible, both in the West and in the East.” English, Russian.

PUTIN BIG ANNUAL PRESS CONFERENCE. Today – here’s Sputnik News’ summary. “Our partners never stopped. They decided they were the winners, they were an empire, while all the others were their vassals, and they needed to put the squeeze on them.” No “equal partners” there.

PLEASE HELP US PUTIN! Port-au-Prince a few weeks ago. Interesting, eh? “Putinism” is growing. A lot of people are sick of “the greatest threat to peace” and Putin is becoming a symbol of resistance.

RUSSIA-INDIA. Successful visit and intensification of a close relationship: oil delivery agreement; nuclear construction plan; investments. some weapons cooperation. And trade with Crimea.

FRACKING. The drop in oil prices is not going to help the fracking business. One Australian company has gone down already and Chevron has pulled out of Ukraine. More to come, no doubt. And not just fracking – North Sea “close to collapse” shrieks the BBC. How much of Washington’s policy is based on the assumption of energy independence? But the price may go up again.

WAR. US House and Senate. Not my interpretation, Ron Paul’s, Dana Rohrbacher’s and Pat Buchanan’s. And, says another former ally, the USA is a “dangerous ally”. (Note that we never see this criticism from serving politicians, only from formers. Why would that be, Dear Readers?)

MH17. Trucks carrying wreckage enter the Netherlands. But quite a bit left behind. The relatives who wanted the UN to take charge of the investigation were turned down.

REGIME CHANGE. Are the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia next in line? Note the references to Viktor Orban – “Putin Mini-Me”, “neo-fascist dictator”, second-last para; he’s on the hit list for sure.

UKRAINE. Time to pay the bills. Or not. And guess who’s first in line?

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

SPEECH. Putin is making his annual speech to parliament today. Again I encourage you all to read what he actually says rather than selections twisted to fit propaganda requirements in the MSM. English. “The agreement between Ukraine and the European Union has been signed and ratified, but the implementation of the provisions regarding trade and economy has been postponed until the end of next year. Doesn’t this mean that we were the ones who were actually right?” Well, doesn’t it?

SOUTH STREAM. South Stream was a proposed gas line from Russia, under the Black Sea, to come ashore in Bulgaria and serve southern Europe. The southern equivalent of Nord Stream, it would avoid the uncertainty of Ukrainian transit routes. The EU took against it and Bulgaria was pressured to delay or cancel. Brussels thought that Moscow could be bullied. It was wrong: Putin announced the cancellation in Ankara. “If Europe does not want to implement it, then it will not be implemented. We will focus our energy resource flows on other regions of the world”. Western governments and media are trying to spin this as a defeat for Russia. “These reports are evidence of pressure mounting on Russia… and reduce Russia’s ability to use gas as a tool of coercion”. This is nonsense of course. Southern Europe will remain dependent on uncertain shipments of Russian gas passing through Ukraine or on as-yet-unbuilt tankers and port facilities bringing in more expensive and possibly non-existent LNG from the USA. It won’t see employment in building the line or transit fees. Some reactions from Bulgarians. The Eurocrats and NATOcrats in Brussels get their Russian gas via Nord Stream. So they will be warm this winter.

ECONOMY. Some numbers. From RosStat year-on-year: industrial growth up 2.9%, average monthly salaries up 8.6%, unemployment down 6.6%, economic growth in Q3 slowed to 0.7%, retail trade turnover up 2.2%; new housing construction up 18.3%. Economic Development Ministry forecasts: GDP growth in 2014 increased from 0.5% to 0.6%, recession expected first half of 2015, inflation in 2014 9%, up from 7.5%; Ruble/USD average in 2014 37.4 (weakened 6.8%), in 2015 will average 49. So, yes sanctions and oil prices are having an effect but a good deal of substitution is going on.

MH17. The report that The Netherlands, Ukraine, Australia and Belgium signed a non-disclosure agreement on the results of the investigation appears to be true. There are only two logical possibilities: either the rebels shot it down or Kiev-associated forces did; should Kiev have a veto on the investigation? A basic questions has been given new life by the mother of a victim who is suing Kiev because the airspace wasn’t closed. Others may join the suit. Indeed, why wasn’t it closed? Finally it is reported that Malaysia has been invited to join the investigation: why wasn’t it in the first place? All of this is highly suspicious.

CHINA-RUSSIA. On the very day Putin announced the cancellation of South Stream, Xi declared that China must establish “big country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics”. Deng’s mantra had been “hide your brightness, bide your time”. I guess the time has come to show the brightness. Meanwhile Russia-China trade has increased 7-10% this year already. And, in an enigmatic but nevertheless clear way Beijing recognises Crimea’s secession (a more accurate choice of word than “annexation”, by the way) and supports Moscow’s actions in Ukraine.

UKRAINE-EU. A piece from Der Spiegel on the EU-Ukraine negotiations giving a lot of blame to Merkel for the disaster. And the agreement was postponed after all. Nothing is said about Nuland’s meddling or the EU’s curious indifference to the collapse of the February agreement it negotiated.

BRILLIANT DIPLOMACY. Beijing and Moscow ever closer. Southern Europe will now be nervous every winter and resentful of Brussels’ diktat. Moscow and Ankara are closer. And now the Japanese PM says he is determined to settle the territorial dispute with Russia. Russia finds a new friend in Nigeria. And Hungary is run by a “neo-fascist dictator”. If there were anything amusing about this, it would be funny.

NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT. Nuclear accident at the Zaporozhskaya reactor, but nothing to worry about says Yatsenyuk. This story from May of a Right Sector attack is, of course, just Russian propaganda.

OOPS. Biden visited Kiev, taking the head of the table(!) Cyberberkut says it hacked his staff’s files. The alleged files, showing the deep extent to which Washington backs Kiev’s military, are on its website.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

RUSSIA ISOLATED? Not at APEC – here’s the thousand word photo. And not at G20 either – BRICS had a happy meeting. The West and its tame media is seriously deluding itself with this Russia is isolated stuff.

NEW NWO. Russia bought 55 tonnes of gold in the last quarter. What’s that mean? here’s a theory. (Ukraine’s gold, on the other hand, is almost all gone.) Meanwhile, an arms sale to China. Sberbank offers Yuans. Another huge gas deal. Increasing military cooperation. India-China. New financial instruments. Petrodollar. Russia-Pakistan. It marches. Who thought Ukraine would be so important?

NUKES. Russia has them; they work: Bulava, Topol and Sineva. Meanwhile, in the USA not so much.

NONSENSE. It’s never easy to pick the most idiotic anti-Russian rant but here’s the latest: “Putin’s Russia is one of the most loathsomely misogynistic countries in the world”. Fact: Russia has more women in senior management than any one else. But, it’s Russia, what do facts have to do with it?

RUBLE. Has fallen quite a lot against the USD (but so have most other currencies). Here’s an analysis of the pros and cons. But the ruble price of oil is about the same.

SANCTIONS. They’re hurting Russia, but Europe more. Industrial production continues to rise in Russia but inflation is too. In Europe industrial production is down. Remember, it’s not that Russia was such a big market for the EU but that it was about the only one that was growing: Russia can substitute; the EU cannot. So why is Europe ruining itself in such a questionable cause?

RUSSIA A GOOD INVESTMENT? The famous Jim Rogers thinks so. Give it a read, he’s made a lot of money going against the common view.

POROSHENKO GIVES THE GAME AWAY. Watch this short video: “Their children will hole up in basements”. Why would they be in basements? Because his government is shelling them, that’s why. Even Human Rights Watch has stopped pretending they don’t know who’s firing the artillery into civilian areas in east Ukraine. That’s what the West is supporting. But Putin has drawn the line. “Today there is fighting in eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian central authorities have sent the armed forces there and they even use ballistic missiles. Does anybody speak about it? Not a single word. And what does it mean? What does it tell us? This points to the fact, that you want the Ukrainian central authorities to annihilate everyone there, all of their political foes and opponents. Is that what you want? We certainly don’t. And we won’t let it happen.”

GORBACHEV. The West is not pleased: in Berlin for the celebrations, he bluntly said the world was on the edge of a new Cold War, and they should listen to what Putin said at Valdai. And he supports Putin and the annexation of Crimea.

MH17. A Russian TV channel published, with great excitement, a photo showing a fighter plane firing. One Russian says the photo is fake; another says it isn’t. (In Russian, but you’ll get the idea). For what it’s worth, the US State Department’s files were just hacked. I don’t know; you decide. Unfortunately (and maybe not by accident) this has obscured more radar evidence of military aircraft near it. (For those who think it’s open and shut, go to 6:11 on this CBC interview with one of the first OSCE people on the scene: you may be surprised at what you hear). But the fix may already be in with a secrecy agreement.

RUSSIA INVADES UKRAINE! Someone added them up: 26 breathless headlines since February. And not a smidgeon of evidence. “If Russia had invaded, you wouldn’t have to ask; if you have to ask, it hasn’t.” Help, supplies, advice, very possible; formed combat units, no. If, however, the US arms Kiev as McCain wants, then weapons will flow from Russia. But no “invasion” because the Donbass militias don’t need them: where they get weapons, their best weapons, how they win. The result (VERY gruesome).

RUSSIAN INCURSIONS. Much about Russian ship and aircraft activity. This is never mentioned: “In recent months, the number of NATO jets in the skies over our Eastern Allies has increased five times. We have deployed more ships in the Baltic and the Black Sea. And this year, we are conducting over 200 NATO and national exercises in Europe.” What’s sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. And then, some “Russian” aircraft in Sweden turn out to be French or American. War propaganda.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)

RUSSIA INSIDER. Check it out – everybody is writing for it and it’s pulling in the eyeballs. Toss your subscriptions to NYT, WaPo and Economist and get tomorrow’s news about Russia today.

PUTIN SPEECH. Read the whole thing if you want to know what he’s thinking; if you haven’t time, read this. Nothing new – unilateral world is a disaster, only multilateral agreements can work. But more pointed this time. And he’s right: what rational entity thinks Washington improved Kosovo, Libya, Iraq, ISIS, Ukraine? Catastrophe and chaos everywhere. USA continues to win the greatest threat to peace poll. Some lines that struck me: “Russia does not need any kind of special, exclusive place in the world… While respecting the interests of others, we simply want for our own interests to be taken into account… We don’t need to be a superpower; this would only be an extra load for us… We have had more than enough of those revolutions in the 20th century. What we need is evolution… It is impossible to keep humiliating one’s partners forever in such a way… We have no desire to return to our totalitarian past. This is not because we fear anything, but because this path leads to a dead end…”.

SANCTIONS. An argument for Russian food counter-sanctions is that they would boost domestic producers. So far so good: production up nearly 17%. Russia’s GDP is doing better than predicted. In fact Igor Shuvalov sees them helping modernisation and hopes they continue. Meanwhile Germany’s business confidence drops some more.

MCCAIN’S GAS STATION. Just got bigger – huge oil find in Arctic.

JIHADIST ATTACKS. Have returned. Suicide bomber in Grozniy; fighting in Dagestan and the claim that a number of attacks had been averted. This may be attributable to the IS call for attacks world-wide. (Moscow provides weapons to Iraq as well as Syria in their wars against IS).

WHO PROVIDES YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLET’S CONTENT? Read this and wonder. A lot of Germans get it: check out this satire from German TV on the Ukraine information war.

TRIP DOWN MEMORY LANE. Khodorkovskiy before he became the West’s darling, only a decade ago: “Investors in Khodorkovsky’s projects regularly found that they had acquired worthless pieces of paper.”

GAS TALKS. I couldn’t put it better: Ukraine can’t pay. And, when it gets cold, it will start stealing the gas passing through on the way to Europe. My advice to Moscow is show the gas pressure in the lines entering Ukraine on a webcam. Russia is sending the gas it contracted to; if less comes out the other end, that’s Europe’s problem. “Pottery Barn rule”.

UKRAINE ELECTION. The most intelligent analysis I’ve read. Low turnout in south, east and Transcarpathia. High in Galicia, mediocre in centre. Ukraine is still divided: knowing the fix is in, the others have stopped bothering to vote. Here is perhaps the least intelligent analysis: burkas in east Ukraine? “A house hit by shelling in east Ukraine where turnout was much lower”: why do you suppose turnout was lower? “Voted in droves”? – the turnout was 52-53% (presidential election claimed about 60%). (Ominously, Svoboda claims that “Putin’s agents” falsified the results to their disadvantage. Stay tuned.)

NEW NWO. Moscow and Beijing create two new working groups. A US$100 billion Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank is being created. Moscow, Minsk and Astana are contemplating their own interbank financial system. A gas trading facility that will bypass the USD has been created in St Petersburg. The Bear and the Dragon, a continuing story. When does the Tiger join?

GEORGIA. PM Garibashvili says Tbilisi wants to begin a “real reconciliation” with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. While I do not blame the present government, I think it is too early for this. Tbilisi has to seriously confront its responsibility.

QUOTE OF THE DAY. “We lied to the Americans about that.” And who else is lying to them, do you think?

ESTONIA. An opposition party is calling for allowing anyone born in Estonia or living there before 1991 to receive citizenship. About 15% of the population are not citizens (either Russian or stateless). This is not only a violation of their rights (not that Western assessments are much excited) but bad for Estonia’s security to have so many disgruntled non-citizens.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/ http://us-russia.org/)