RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 22 October 2015

TIME FOR A RE-THINK, ACROSS THE BOARD, DON’T YOU AGREE? Ukraine hasn’t turned out well for anybody, has it? Libya hasn’t either. The longest war gets longer. More war in Iraq. Do all the refugees come from places where NATO has been active; or just almost all of them? The West greatly underestimated Russia’s military power. (I remember writing briefing notes in the 1990s warning that while it might seem to be a lot of fun to kick Russia around when it was weak, it wouldn’t always be weak.) Former US defense secretary says the US training program in Syria was “nuts”. European Commission chief says “we can’t let our relationship with Russia be dictated by Washington“. Taliban surprises the Americans; Russia surprises the Americans. Washington hopes Iraq will not sign on to the Russian effort; too late. “Another A2/AD bubble“. Intelligence agencies rebel. The war party’s response? “get tough on Putin”. Time to man up and admit that it’s not weakness, it’s policy: everything the West/NATO/USA has done in the last decade has made things worse.

BUSY. If you look at his schedule, you can see that Putin is constantly meeting with people in and around Syria. There was a lot of preparation. Indeed, it seems that only Washington was kept out of the loop.

OIL AND GAS. Russia reports enormous finds in the Arctic.

BRIDGE TO CRIMEA. Moving along smartly. Video of the first section.

CRUISE MISSILES. In the INF Treaty the USA insisted that sea-launched cruise missiles (of which it had a monopoly) be excluded. Monopoly no more. Here’s a perceptive article on the Russian system and a video of an imaginative deployment in shipping containers; note the slogan at the end “Every state has the right to independence”. The US carrier battle group left the Gulf which may or may not be related to learning that it was in range of some insignificant ship in the Caspian Sea. Of all places.

WESTERN VALUES™. Should US military personnel be found responsible for the Kunduz hospital attack, “it’s a safe bet” that there will be no involvement of the ICC. On the other hand, Washington supports an effort to have Syria be indicted by the ICC. And, now, the Drone Papers.

MH17 REPORT. Not impressed. My principal observation: DSB’s direction of attack only possible if damage to port wing and engine ignored – as it was. Note the missing radar data from Ukraine and NATO. Identification of Buk depends on three or four particles. I call it a “limited hangout“.

GHOUTA CW ATTACK. Two Turkish parliamentarians come within an ace of saying that the sarin gas came from Turkey as part of a “false flag” operation. Will your local media outlet report this?

UKRAINE. I have always thought that what Moscow wants from Ukraine can be simply expressed: a country that pays its gas bills on time, is not a NATO launch pad and doesn’t have a crisis every five years that keeps everybody in Moscow up all night. In short, prosperous, neutral, stable. I agree (as I usually do) with Alexander Mercouris’s argument expressed here that it’s moved a lot closer to that end. The latest “Normandy format” talks have hammered some points home that were always in the Minsk agreement but Kiev had ignored; it appears Paris and Berlin have woken up to their dilemma. Kiev must talk to Donetsk to work out some real autonomy and it has to rein in the quasi-independent militia groups. More attacks are just more defeats. Time has been bought: I believe that Putin & Co understand – or hope, at least – that Ukrainians are not really represented by the corrupt plutocrats and nazi freaks now running the place and is playing for time: sooner or later the junta will go and then Moscow will be closer to the Ukraine it wants. Which is, of course the Ukraine that rational people in Europe should also want. (There are already a couple of million Ukrainian refugees in Russia, what happens if hundreds of thousands want to get into Europe?) A recent Ukrainian poll shows slightly more people want to begin big protests than did in 2013. Meanwhile, we learn that Kiev is starting an investigation into “the Heavenly Hundred”. Gordon Hahn speculates on why Kiev would be entertaining the possibility that the killings were done by the “Maidan defenders” and not – as legend says – by Yanukovych. 16,000 deserters out there, many with weapons. Worse to come, I fear.

MISTRALS. Russia is “satisfied”. Egypt (Egypt? What’s it need an expeditionary force for?) will be buying them. Hollande hopes to sell more ships to Russia. What do you bet that, after a decent interval, Egypt sells them to Russia? If so, Poland and the Baltics will have apoplexy.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 8 October 2015

10 DAYS THAT CHANGED THE WORLD. They did, don’t you think? Gilbert Doctorow describes the interlocking parts of Moscow’s actions: coalition assembled, the UNGA, the military moves, the demonstration that Russia has full-capacity armed forces, Ukraine.

SYRIA. Clearly the big story. Others have commented: I recommend Dyer, Escobar and Buchanan. But there are plenty more. All I have to add are a few observations. Re the “Russian invasion” of Ukraine and grainy photos of combine harvesters or whatever somewhere or other, this is what real satellite photos look like: colour, detail, precision. Russia’s intervention has exploded the US fantasy of “moderate opposition” (but weren’t there only four or five of them?) and its incoherent two-horse scheme (watch McCain lump “barrel bombs” and beheaders together as if Assad and ISIS were the same at 6:51). As to Russia being “doomed to fail“, its strikes are coordinated with the forces on the ground that are actually fighting ISIS; Syrian forces have begun an offensive. And with Iraq too. Egypt as well. Israel even? Is Iran coming? There are suggestions that both Iraq and Afghanistan would welcome Russian assistance because ISIS has only grown stronger in the year of the US-led operation, despite its claims. Moscow prepared the ground, did everything legally, assembled a coalition and moved quickly and decisively. Not Putin vs Obama, or “standing up to Putin“, but a direct challenge to the New American Century crowd; “the most powerful, good and honorable nation… the exceptional nation“: “Do you at least realise now what you have done?” (Вы хоть понимаете теперь, что вы натворили?).

WESTERN VALUES™. No sooner had the US and its allies complained about “civilian casualties” (on faked evidence) than US forces struck a hospital in Afghanistan. The American story is now in its fourth iteration but still no response to the three main charges – that they knew where the hospital was, that there was no firing from it, that the hospital was repeatedly struck after MSF had called on the US authorities to stop. Meanwhile, on Russia’s “violation of Turkish airspace”, look at this screen from a Western source: the green are NATO aircraft in Syria. Whose violations there? Turkey has been violating Syria airspace for some time. And here’s a Deutsche Welle report on the ISIS supply route from Turkey.

PAST AND PRESENT. Wikileaks tells us that Qadaffi was willing to talk but Clinton was not willing to listen. The former Defense Intelligence Agency head says the Administration made a “wilful decision” to ignore its warnings about the growth of ISIS; nor does he believe the “moderate opposition” exists.

INTENTIONS. Don’t know what Russia’s intentions are? Stop speculating and read Putin’s speech. A clue: “we can no longer tolerate the current state of affairs in the world” (что терпеть складывающееся в мире положение уже невозможно). He’s been saying this since the famous Munich speech and now he’s found a time and place to act. He seems to have a lot of support in the West, too – see below. Read Xi’s speech as well, not as blunt, but the same message.

THE WORM TURNS. Read the comments on this story, this story, this story and this story. The first two condemn Russia’s actions, the second two approve. But, in all cases the readers’ comments are overwhelmingly supportive of Russia’s attacks. I have suspected for a while – why else all the talk about “Putin trolls”, Putin’s “information war” and the closing of comments sections? – that an increasing proportion of the Western audience sees through the spin and propaganda. Syria may burst the dam. The last words go to Paul Craig Roberts: “By telling the truth at a time of universal deceit, Putin committed a revolutionary act“.

RT. Remember when RT was “Putin’s weapon of mass deception” and a challenge that had to be countered? Well now it fakes its numbers and is insignificant. Hard to keep up with the story, isn’t it?

RUSSIA INC. I highly recommend this from the perceptive Mr Mercouris on how Russian economy measurements miss something important. While the USA undeniably leads his super trio, how much longer can it with so much of its manufacturing out-sourced?

CORRUPTION. Is a big problem in Russia and no one hides it. I’ve said before that I’ll believe a serious anti-corruption effort is really happening when someone in an office next to Putin’s or Medvedev’s is taken away. It almost happened with Serdyukov but he seems to have got away with it. Ditto the Luzhkovs. Well, maybe something more significant than busting traffic cops is beginning. We’ll see.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 27 August 2015

None until October – travelling (blowing my money before it is burned up in the crash)

STOCK MARKETS. Is this IT? I don’t know – baleful take, bad but not The End. Much is going on under the blanket – China sold US$100 billion in US treasuries in the last 2 weeks. But I don’t see Russia being hit worse than the USA or Europe.

RUSSIA INC. The World Bank, using its PPP calculations, has decided that the Russian economy is bigger than the German one. Its top five are China, the USA, India, Japan and Russia. Its numbers put the BRICS GDP at 96% of the G7’s. The world is changing.

FOOD SANCTIONS. Following an order from Putin, the authorities very publicly destroyed contraband food. Some say this is a terrible idea, others that it is necessary; Russians themselves are split. But new opportunities are being created; here’s a (rather high-end) thing: a co-op of local farmers supplying a store. (In Russian, but you’ll get the idea, click on ФЕРМЕРЫ to meet them. The list is much longer than when I first looked at it a couple of weeks ago.)

JIHADISTS. It is reported that Russian security forces killed the head of the Caucasus Emirate. Gordon Hahn discusses. That he had just been appointed suggests Russian intelligence is ahead of the situation.

MAIDAN MASSACRE. One of the primal events of Maidan mythology is the “heavenly hundred“. One researcher, Ivan Katchanovski (a Canadian, I’m proud to say) has seriously investigated. His conclusion is that it was a “false flag“. Read here what you won’t see in the WMSM.

OSCE IN DONBASS. The OSCE has now about 600 monitors in the area of the fighting. The Donbass locals bitterly complain that the monitors do not blame the Kiev forces for the random shelling of civilian areas (lots of evidence that they do, by the way. One should distinguish, as this AI report does not, between terror shelling and the consequences of fighting.) There have been several protests in Donetsk. I don’t regularly follow the daily SMM reports but I have noticed that while they occasionally ascribe the fire to the Kiev side, they usually report the shelling as if it came from an unknowable location. Their spokesman defends the SMM. However, there is only one possible interpretation of Poroshenko’s assertion that their children will “hole up in basements” and “that is exactly how we will win this war”.

WHY DIDN’T HE SIGN IT? Because Yanukovych’s experts told him the cost would be US$160 billion – far more than the EU said (buried in this story in Der Spiegel). An underestimate as it turns out.

THE STATE OF UKRAINE. Ukraine just celebrated its independence day. Not a happy experience. A Ukrainian source says, since independence, it has had the worst performing economy in the world. In the first six months of this year it’s dropped 16% year on year. (English summary) Even the US media suspects that new IMF money has been stolen. Eight thousand soldiers and police have defected to the Donbass fighters; 1300 security officers. A US poll shows negligible support for the situation. How many Ukrainians have fled to Russia? Several million: last year Russia had more asylum requests than anywhere. Ukrainian refugees are welcomed in Russia, not so much elsewhere. Crime. Theft. Even the Western media occasionally notices: Demoralised Ukraine troops start to lose faith in Kiev, Kiev forced to fight its own fascist militia and Ukraine Is Too Corrupt for Debt Deal to Work. Disaster.

DISASTER. I’ve lost track of all the “formers” who have criticised the Western stance on Ukraine/Russia (all of Merkel’s and Hollande’s living predecessors, I think) but here’s a piece by Dmitriy Babich that sums it up. My take on the lack of forethought by the neocon authors.

ANOTHER DISASTER. People who think ISIS is a consequence of or creation of Washington’s policy received support from the former director of the Defense Intelligence Agency when he said “I think it was a willful decision”. Catastrophe piled upon catastrophe.

OOPS! It turns out that the Captive Nations Resolution, reissued routinely, refers to “Cossackia” as well as Ukraine. Does Washington therefore recognise Donbass, presumably part of said “Cossackia”, as separate from Ukraine? Does anybody read these things before they sign them?

???? Norwegian TV is showing a series in which Russia invades Norway. At the request of the EU. To keep the oil flowing. So are the Russians the good guys, or the bad guys?

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

 

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 6 August 2015

MH17. Before you agree that Russia’s veto of the UN tribunal idea is evidence that Putindunnit, you should know two things. First, there already is a UNSC resolution calling for “full, thorough and independent international investigation” and “those responsible for this incident be held to account”. It is UNSC Resolution 2166 and dates from a year ago. Who needs another? Second, that one of those calling for the new resolution – Australia’s Julie Bishop – condemned Russia a year ago for refusing to accept responsibility for the shootdown. Clearly a kangaroo court (as it were) was intended. As we have seen before with Milosevic and Qaddafi. Rather than stunts, Washington should first show us its “mountain of evidence” as a group of retired US intelligence professionals demand.

SANCTIONS. The Russian counter sanctions on food are having a beneficial effect on local producers as this Austrian TV report shows. Here’s a visitor’s report of what he found in St Petersburg and environs. Here’s what Americans are told: “Je suis Charlie et je suis fromage“. Costs to the EU are still being estimated: Belgium US$500 million; Germany €600-800 million; overall maybe €5 billion. Or even €100 billion when everything is calculated. In light of Stratfor’s observation that Washington is determined to keep Germany and Russia apart, one wonders which Washington wants to hurt. For the effect on Russia, Reuters reports the IMF’s take: “The fund estimated the immediate effect… had been to wipe between 1pc and 1.5pc off GDP, rising to 9pc over the next few years… also forecast “weak” economic growth of around 1.5pc annually in the medium term.” Does that make sense to you? Or is it an estimate of what might have been?At any rate, however you spin or measure it, this is not “tatters“.

THE NATIONAL ENDOWMENT FOR DEMOCRACY is declared an “undesirable organisation”. (The first of many to come. Read the WaPo piece from 1991 for suggestions). Read my piece on RI for a good laugh: there actually was a time when, rather than pretending to be about civil society and other warm and fluffy things, they openly boasted about doing openly what the CIA used to do clandestinely: “spyless coups”.

INTERNATIONAL ARMY GAMES. Mud (last year; but this year there will be plenty), noise, loud bangs, explosions, expensive crashes. Not as much fun as fireworks, but even more money blown up!

LITVINENKOISM IN LONDON. Read this – a complete evidence-free farce that ignores what actual evidence there is. More war propaganda.

ARCTIC. Russia has put in its opening bid and, like Canada and Denmark, is calling the Lomonosov Ridge its own. The US, unable to do so, says it’s international. I fearlessly predict the whole thing, after much negotiation, will have everyone stopping at the Pole. The amusement will be watching the spinners trying to condemn Russia for trying what everyone else is trying.

SUBMARINES. Sweden has finally found a Russian submarine. It sank in 1916. By the way, when is anyone going to notice that we only hear stories of “Russian submarines” poking around in neutral countries with interest groups that want to join NATO but not in actual NATO countries?

MISTRAL. Agreement is reached and they say France will pay more than a billion euros in compensation. So what to do with two ships no one wants? Scuttle them? Sell them to China to sell to Russia?

“FEAR GROWS…” Always amusing to see how Western news consumers are prepared for “narrative changes”. FT here. “Russian officials and media have long demonised Right Sector as neo-Nazis… Now some Ukrainians who previously dismissed the threat posed by Right Sector are growing nervous“. Reuters here: “Such talk and recent violent incidents involving members of unofficial armed groups have raised government concerns about radicals running out of control“. So, those Russian officials were actually correct all along? The US Ambassador (of telephonic fame) is unconcerned: “exaggerated”.

UKRAINE SALVATION COMMITTEE. Ukraine’s former Prime Minister, Mykola Azarov, has announced a Ukraine Salvation Committee; he said neither Yanukovych nor any of his associates was welcome and claimed to have members inside Ukraine. The Kremlin says it had nothing to do with it. Which may even be true: it is a little late. But, when Ukraine comes to its miserable end, it might come in handy.

RUMBLINGS. Disquiet: the “Assembly of Northern Bukovina Romanians” declares the region a “province of Romania” and a parliamentarian says the Rivne region is on the brink of civil war. True, false, who knows? But not everybody loves Bandera and the Galicia SS Division view of history.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 23 July 2015

EID AL-FITR. Interesting video that shows Russia is also a rather Muslim country. The Chief Mufti supports Putin, by the way. (For those of you who think it’s some evil scheme cooked up by Orthodoxy).

MH17. Watch this BBC interview. Shootdown by Buk “most credible scenario” but also looking at Buk fired “from another region, another place” and scenario of “an air-to-air missile.” Can only mean 2) Buk fired from the Kiev side or 3) Kiev aircraft shot it down. Somebody’s lost control of the narrative. We are told by a Ukrainian official that the report will be published 10 August but not made public. (If scenarios 2 and 3 are really being considered, why is Ukraine even part of the investigation?) Retired US int professionals again call on Washington to release what it has. Simply put, here’s all you need to know: the absence of evidence is the evidence.

UKRAINE: THE WAR. The rebels have announced a pull-back of weapons under 100mm calibre (Minsk II requires 100mm+ weapons moved out of range). Why? I think the Saker is correct: to show they are abiding by Minsk II; but it’s also a trap. OSCE observers corroborate that at least some weapons have been withdrawn and they are off to confirm full withdrawal. But they have also said – I don’t recall this before – that Kiev forces are shelling civilians: “In both cases, the SMM was able to conclude the direction of fire to have been from the area of government-controlled Pisky (11km north-west of Donetsk) and Pervomaiske (17km north-west of Donetsk).” So much for the US Ambassador’s retort “How do you know? Were you personally present for this?”. Or RL’s reprinting Kiev claims that the rebels are shelling themselves.

UKRAINE: TRANSCARPATHIA. Ethnically mixed, many former owners, little enthusiasm for Kiev regime. Smuggling: tobacco and borders. Right Sector people got into a fight in Mukachevo; Poroshenko ordered the Interior Ministry to restore order (perhaps a regime split on how to handle it? Certainly no one is very popular in Ukraine today.) Right Sector ran for cover and now the place is full of Interior Ministry forces and small-scale fighting. Stay tuned. (Of course, maybe Putindunnit.)

UKRAINE: RIGHT SECTOR. A headline to remember: “Kiev Forced to Fight Its Own Fascist Militias“. After Mukachevo, Right Sector declared mobilisation, demanded resignations all round and set up blockposts here and there. There was a sizeable demonstration in Kiev on Tuesday; Yarosh demanded a referendum on confidence in the government and an end to obedience to it. Analyses of the situation from Gordon Hahn, Alexander Mercouris and Nikolai Petro. BBC actually notices. Many of us have been awaiting the next stage of the Ukrainian demolution (a new word coined by Miquel Puertas: demolition + revolution) – Nazi Spring, as it were. We are a step closer. But it’s extremely fluid: witness what Yarosh is saying now. A weak government to be sure but Right Sector may not have the street power it thinks it has.

UKRAINE: NEIGHBOURS. Very interesting article by a Polish writer who contemplates where the burning fuse is going: a Ukrainian “Banderland” is not in Poland’s interests and (so much for NATO and the EU) “if the West needs Poland, it’s only as a battlefield for a possible conflict with Russia”; maybe better if Ukraine were partitioned. Other Poles are concerned about the glorification of Bandera and the OUN; and a movie is on the way. Hungary has cleared its throat, so to speak, about Hungarians living in Transcarpathia. The violence in Transcarpathia has made neighbouring countries strengthen their borders – after all the armed Right Sector people are hiding somewhere nearby. Meanwhile, Schengen members are cutting down on issuing visas to Ukrainians. Remember “the end of history”? Neither do they.

???!!! Did Washington supply Stingers to Kiev? Anyway, the Donbass fighters now have them. This may make sense in some universe, but not the one we’re living in.

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC. Several people have suspected an American attempt to start a “colour revolution” there – to many the choice of mission head is diagnostic. In this respect the announcement of a “human rights” award to a dissident was protested by the government. When the US did nothing, the PM denounced the 1993 assistance agreement with the USA.

IRAN DEAL. We’ll see. Many in the USA want to denounce it and that may happen. In which case who will follow Washington and who won’t? It’s good (and proper) that Obama thanked Russia, but I don’t expect much. As to European missile defence being cancelled, let’s ask Putin. But undeniably a major event.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 9 July 2015

SAME AGAIN. The USA’s new National Military Strategy finds threats everywhere: “the most unpredictable I have seen in 40 years of service”. Russia, Iran, North Korea and China are specifically named as, in order, undermining, destabilising, threatening and adding tension. Some questions it neither asks nor answers: since, say 2002, is jihadism a bigger threat or a smaller threat? Iraq more stable or less stable? Afghanistan ditto? Russia more friendly or less friendly? China ditto? What makes them think that another dozen years of the same thing will get different results?

PUTIN’S RESPONSE. In what I agree was probably not an accident, Putin uses the expression “our geopolitical opponents” rather than his more usual “partners” at a recent meeting of the Security Council. “We cannot hope that some of our geopolitical opponents will change their hostile course anytime in the foreseeable future.” This is as close as I have seen him come to publicly stating Russia is under attack. He remains confident: “It is clear today that attempts to split and divide our society, play on our problems, and seek out our vulnerable spots and weak links have not produced the results hoped for by those who imposed these restrictive measures on our country and continue to support them.” He is correct to be confident, in my opinion.

N”G”Os. The Russian Federation Council has listed foreign organisations operating in Russia it considered to be undesirable and asked the Prosecutor General to rule on them. The idea presumably being to get a ruling that allows them to be expelled. They are the usual array of so-called non-government organisations which are part and parcel of Suzanne Nossel’s “smart power”. That is to say, agents of US foreign policy usually funded by the US State Department (eg, NDI, Freedom House, NED). These are the incubators of “colour revolutions”.

KHODORKOVSKIY. The Russian Investigative Committee spokesman says Khodorkovskiy could have ordered the murder of Nefteyugansk mayor Vladimir Petukhov in 1998. An investigation will begin.

SANCTIONS. One could make a reasonable argument that the sanctions are doing more harm to Europe than to Russia. An Austrian estimate puts the long term cost at €90 billion with over 2 million lost jobs. Meanwhile here’s someone wondering if the sanctions against Russia even exist any more.

UKRAINE’S MISERY. “The habit of hunger“. (Translation). A UN report estimates a third of the population will be in poverty by the end of the year. Even the World Bank, optimistic as it tries to be, knows the economy is disappearing. Saakashvili is quoted as saying it will be 20 years before it returns to the pre-Maidan state. Default is coming. Another UN report says Russia leads the world in asylum requests: the vast majority are from Ukraine. (“Some 172,000 people had applied for asylum in neighbouring countries in Europe, including more than 168,000 people in the Russian Federation. A further 149,000 applied for other forms of legal stay in the Russian Federation.” (So much for the “Russia is the enemy” trope.) The Cyberberkut hackers claim to have turned up a document from the Ukrainian Procuracy saying the so-called “volunteer battalions” are out of control and little more than criminal organisations. OSCE observers report they were told by one of the most eminent, Pravy Sektor, that “they had their own orders and did not fall under the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces“. They demand a return to war. Corruption and inefficiency remain, even in the war effort: generals are accused of writing off equipment so they can sell it. Weapon repair facilities are a joke. Desertions and defections said to be increasing; more than one million men of military age are said to be hiding in Russia alone. Craziness proliferates. Time is not on Kiev’s side. Putin Cunctator.

WESTERN VALUES™. The Greek referendum “was neither factually nor legally correct“; the Ukraine coup was OK (never mind Art 108 of the Constitution); the Crimea referendum was illegal.

SHARK JUMPING. Georgia’s quondam president (wanted there on various charges) and new Governor of Odessa tells us on 6 July that the US Ambassador has promised to bankroll him and his team.

NEW NWO. More data points. Greek referendum – no idea where that will go but it’s unlikely to solidify the EU. BRICS meeting in Ufa then SCO meeting: India and Pakistan are expected to join latter. Iran’s President visits. BRICS bank officially launched. Saudi Arabia wants to invest in Russia. Doubling Nord Stream. China buys some Russian debt. Hungary signs on to the Chinese “Belt and Road”.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 25 June 2015

SAUDIS SWITCHING SIDES AGAIN? In 1945 US President Roosevelt met with Abdul Aziz ibn Saud, the ruler of the eponymously named Saudi Arabia. Formerly allied with, and dependent on, Britain, this account makes it clear that the meeting was at Abdul Aziz’s initiative; he chose to move away from the old world power to the new one. Note the assumption of the author that Roosevelt had the initiative. I don’t agree; far from being an illiterate tribesman from the back of beyond, Abdul Aziz was a man of great courage, charisma and intelligence ever prepared to take a risk, as he had in the raid on the Rashidis. I ask viewers who the dominant man in this photo is. Be that as it may, with the meeting in St Petersburg, have we just seen his descendants move, once again, to the ascending power? If not, they’re considering it.

PROJECTION. The latest utterance of NATO’s GenSek uses the idiotic phrase “hybrid war”. What? When we go to war we’re supposed to look like this? How childish. And how meretricious: “We’re not interested in a fair fight with anyone,” Gen Hodges said. “We want to have overmatch in all systems.” The GenSek did not, however, speak of Putin’s “troll army” or “information weaponisation” as he has done in the past. That may be because, thanks to Edward Snowden, internet trolling, false names and all the rest are actually practised by the UK and others in the West, The amount of psychological projection in all this is immense. The only way to decode these utterances is to understand that when NATO accuses Russia of doing something it’s an admission that NATO’s actually doing it. For example, when he said NATO would “endorse a defence capacity building package to help Moldova”, he meant that Moldova and Transdnestr are to be a new front.

CORRUPTION. At long last a sentence on the defence embezzlement case. Nothing on Serdyokov though.

IT’S WORKING. The three Baltic nations, after the overload of panic about the “Russian invasion” are spending the money. And NATO countries are receiving it. Poland ditto. And Germany. Sweden too. But, it’s not catastrophic yet, NATO still accounts for well over half of the world’s spending on weapons and better than ten times Russia’s spending.

SANCTIONS. Have been extended for the preposterous reason of making Moscow live up to its side of the Minsk II agreement. Read it; there is no obligation on Moscow at all. Kiev has broken it by refusing to talk to the people in Donetsk and Lugansk. Medvedev thanks Europe for the sanctions. But they’re hurting Europe. Losing Russian tourists too. And maybe that’s the point.

Economy in tatters? The World Bank has revised its predictions and sees small growth next year.

A JOKE. BUT NOT A FUNNY ONE. I know they’re not real polls; I know they’re satire; I know they’re carefully edited, but a frightening number of Americans seem to think nuking Russia would be a good idea. Not so many in Russia want to nuke the USA.

DISCUSS. A Russian Army recruiting video; an American. Interesting difference of emphasis, isn’t it?

DEFECTIONS. Two brothers, one claiming to be from the Ukrainian security service and the other to have worked in Ukrainian Embassy in France, defected to Lugansk: “Traitors, fascists, various intelligence agents have taken up the reins of the country, and are leading it to ruin“. A week later a major general and advisor to Kiev’s defence minister defected too: he said morale in the Ukrainian Armed Forces is very low and many more were ready to defect: “All generals and officers who are aware the authorities’ actions are criminal have no wish to fight the war“. Google doesn’t show any report in the WMSM, so this must be more Putin trollery.

THE ALL-HEARING EAR. WikiLeaks tells us the NSA has been listening to the last three French Presidents.

EASY DEDUCTION. Russia challenges USA to publish its information on MH17, USA refuses.

COLOUR REVOLUTIONS. A colour revolution attempt is underway in Armenia. Why do I say that? An American company bought a power generator. Victoria Nuland visited. Familiar faces. A slogan: “Electric Yerevan“. Background. Intentions. Meanwhile, in the Kyrgyz Republic, an opposition member has met the US Chargé. Why? Let Hillary Clinton explain. One hopes that enough has been learned about these things to stop them. But if we can’t afford to lose Greece to Russia, then what will we have to do?

WESTERN VALUES™. A Spaniard at Kaunas University says he was told to stop with the “Russian propaganda” or lose his job. Follow him on Facebook here.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 11 June 2015

Because I have been somewhat out of touch for six weeks, this will be a little choppy.

MH17. Remember that? The maker of Buk missiles has produced a report that says the plane was brought down by a Buk 9M38M1 missile of which the Ukrainian Armed Forces have several hundred. Analysis of the warhead fragment dispersal pattern and the destruction shows that the missile could only have been fired from Kiev-held territory. Here it is, judge for yourself. By the way, Der Spiegel has blown “Bellingcat” to pieces, so you can stop bothering with that favourite source. Any year now the report from the Netherlands (over which Ukraine appears to have a veto) will be out.

CANOSSA. So, US Secretary of State Kerry goes to visit the isolated, condemned pariah and they agree that there should be no more fighting. Then Kerry has an accident and disappears from the news cycle. Nuland pops up contradicting him. What’s going on? Washington is throwing in the towel and Nuland is fighting a last ditch battle to save what she began? Kerry has been effectively replaced by Nuland? Nobody is in charge and it’s all just a random walk? How would we know?

VICTORY DAY. Immortal regiment. (Website) Not all Westerners boycotted. Shoygu removes hat and crosses himself going under Saviour’s Tower. Indian and Chinese soldiers. Full parade.

COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS. At what point do Moscow and Beijing decide that the cost of dumping their US securities is less than the cost of war?

G7. When it began, the G7 countries were about 60% of the world’s GDP; now they’re under 45% and falling. However, they do account for more than 60% of the world’s debt. The BRICS, on the other hand… Who’s the loser here? Russia as the butt of the former or honoured member of the latter?

FIFA. A sudden desire by the USA for transparency and anti-corruption? Only if you’re simple-minded.

SANCTIONS. They don’t work. But, never mind, let’s have some more. Even the White House admits Europe is hurting. On second thought, maybe they are working: Stratfor again, “The United States considers the most dangerous potential alliance to be between Russia and Germany“. A German banker discusses the long term damage to Europe.

MACKINDER AND THE WORLD ISLAND. A long but rewarding essay on what’s really going on and why the West’s attack on Russia will give it the result it least wants. To my mind the one thing that perfectly encapsulates the utter failure of US foreign policy is Chinese warships in the Black Sea.

A NEW FRONT? The colour revolution in Macedonia seems to have failed; time to start trouble in Transdnestr? Every other Obama foreign policy initiative has failed (something for neo-cons and liberals to agree about at last), what makes them think this will succeed?

GOTTA LOVE STRATFOR. First “the most blatant coup in history” and now these “democratic revolutions” need outside efforts (the reader is invited to wonder how much Stratfor’s other three elements also depend on outside investment). A coup brought about by outside interests: you’d think Putin’s army of internet trolls had infiltrated Stratfor.

I AGREE WITH VERA GRAZIADEI. I am re-examining everything I formerly believed and, on my recent travels I met others who were doing the same. The Ukraine coup destroyed the last illusion.

KARLIN SITREP. Anatoly Karlin – always worth reading – is beginning a sitrep on the Ukrainian civil war.

ANOTHER MAIDAN? Not as long as the victors of the last one don’t want it, there won’t be.

AMERICANS, BRITISH AND CANADIANS MIGHT WANT TO WATCH THIS. See what your governments support.

POROSHENKO JUMPS THE SHARK. Saakashvili appointed governor of Odessa moments after being given Ukraine citizenship. Anatoly Karlin destroys the Saakashvili myth. He hasn’t been home since just before losing the election although Tbilisi is trying to extradite him.

WESTERN VALUES™. The gay rights parade in Kiev violently dispersed by, says The Guardian, “unknown assailants“. Not unknown: they said they’d do it, they did it, they boasted they’d done it. The very people The Guardian’s typists pretend aren’t there. To their credit, the police prevented it getting worse.

YATS’ TAKE. For what it’s worth: “Less visible, but just as important, is Ukraine’s war against the Soviet past and the legacy of corruption and misrule that has held us back for so many years. These battles must be fought and won together…“. Not winning the corruption battle either.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 23 April 2015

PUTIN’S Q&A SESSION. Here. Rather boring this year I thought: a lot of minutiae about small farmers’ problems, medicines, local train services and so on; much agreement that things must be improved. Something important on the Western sanctions; “we must benefit from the situation with the sanctions to reach new development frontiers. Otherwise, we probably would not have done it. This goes for import substitution policies, which we are now forced to implement.” Many of the people whom I talk to (with, I might say, a much better track record of assessment than the usual “experts” that fill the MSM: Kraus, Auckland) agree that import substitution will be of great benefit. Nothing on foreign matters that he hasn’t said many times before: open for cooperation, but won’t be pushed around. When asked why he does these sessions he said they were a sociological poll: “Millions of questions have arrived though different channels and they offer an opportunity to see what people are really concerned about.” 3 million phonecalls and SMS messages, in fact. It is a window into concerns.

HAPPINESS. Russians are a lot happier than they used to be; read this. Some US data. Interesting.

NEW NWO. Putin lifted the ban on the sale of the effective S-300 AD system to Iran. The Lausanne talks are expected to bear fruit; Iran will probably be soon welcomed into the SCO joining a security alliance with China and Russia. India is also expected to formally join. Another piece in the new order.

OLYMPICS. The Russian Audit Chamber says 324.9 billion rubles (US$6.2 billion) was spent on the Olympics and Paralympics with revenues of 85.4 billion rubles (US$1.6 billion) in revenues. That’s about what I said at the time. Hostile Western media confused the other large sums spent on developing the Sochi-Adler complex altogether. Here are some reports of what’s happening there now.

JIHADISM. It is reliably reported that the leader of the Caucasus Emirate amir was killed in a special operation in Dagestan. Here’s Gordon Hahn’s informed take.

MEDIA TRUST. Way down in Europe on Ukraine disaster coverage. It’s not “Putin’s troll army” but the basic implausibility of the message.

INTELLIGENCE. One of my long-held suspicions is that this whole sorry mess is being run by the amateurs of the State Department and White House. People who actually know very little and think they can BS their way out of trouble. We already have evidence that German intelligence does not confirm what NATO says. We have the strong clue that the US intelligence service actually has no information on MH17. The latest is the head of French military intelligence who said there never has been any evidence of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Instead we have social media, “mountains of evidence” blurry satellite photos taken somewhere and fake photos. This is, to put it mildly, dangerously vapid.

WESTERN VALUES™. The Wiesenthal Center condemns the rehabilitation of the OUN. A Polish general has “completely withdrawn” his previous support of military assistance; his uncle was murdered by them. Unlike most of the WMSM, La Repubblica noticed the rash of deaths of government opponents. The “Ukrainian Insurgent Army” claims responsibility. A Ukrainian security official helpfully advises “Ukrainophobes” to keep quiet. A Polish politician says the Maidan snipers were trained in Poland.

TRAINING. US, British and Canadian soldiers are now training Kiev forces in Ukraine. Canada’s Defence Minister answering the question about whether they will be training neo-nazis naively answered: “We will only be training units of the Ukrainian National Guard and army recognized by the government of Ukraine.” He obviously didn’t get the memo about Yarosh joining the MoD.

THE FLEXIBILITY OF TIME. 30 days after the Germanwings crash, we have a theory supported by the black boxes. 280 days after the MH17 crash…..

US MILITARY. More concerns: concerns that US nuclear triad is becoming obsolete; Russian and Chinese military capabilities expanded “faster than we anticipated.” Morale is low, too.

A DEPRESSING READ. “In a sane world it is quite impossible to imagine that a country which lost every single war it fought in the past 70 years would decide to top off this series of defeats by taking on the country which defeated both Napoleon and Hitler.“

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. Remember all the Russian submarines in Sweden? Three or four at one time? A civilian boat, but they’re still sure there was something at some time, somewhere.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION 9 APRIL 2015

WESTERN VALUES™. We’re sure learning the difference between reality and rhetoric, aren’t we? Constitutional order: Yanukovich leaves town and loses his position, Yemen president leaves town, keeps his. “I’m not going to draw parallels here” says Harf as she proceeds to. Freedom of speech: pianist cancelled because of her tweets or, as they might say, “Charlie? Qui est-il?”.

AN ESSENTIAL READ. I highly recommend Vladimir Golstein’s essay “Politics, Bullshit, and Ukraine”. Putin & Co are telling the truth or lying; but in either case they believe there is a factual reality to be addressed. The other side is simply bullshitting: reality is whatever they say it is (vide Harf above). BS engenders conspiracy theories: obviously last year’s coup was not about improving the life of Ukrainians so it must be about something else (my entries here). But read the whole essay, it’s very illuminating.

THE RUBLE. Remember when it was on its way to complete destruction? Well it’s now the best performing currency of the year. The Russian economy is stabilising. Predicting is tough – what you want to see often gets in the way.

CRIMEA. Crimea had a problem in that most of its fresh water came from Ukraine and Kiev could cut it off. Not any more: Russian military engineers have found aquifers and are laying pipelines. One of the biggest mis-assumptions, to my mind, of those who started the trouble in Ukraine (never forget the phone call) was the idea that Moscow was more or-less helpless to do anything. Time and time again, Moscow has out-manoeuvred Nuland & Co. Moscow will be pumping money into Crimea for obvious reasons. Nothing much had happened there under Kiev’s rule (or, for that matter, anywhere else in Ukraine – its GNI grew the least of all the post soviet countries 1993-2012 – not something, I think, anyone would have predicted in 1991). So there’s plenty to be done.

ONE PERCENT. Remember all that stuff about how the neo-nazis in Ukraine got hardly any votes in the elections so not to worry? Here, here, here and here? Dmitro Yarosh is now an advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence and his Right Sector fighters are being taken into them. Even the normally compliant Western media has had its misgivings about Right Sector (in the past, of course): Guardian, Daily Mail, IBT, CNN. But then they fell in line and now treat the issue very circumspectly indeed, vide BBC. Putin’s the Nazi, these guys aren’t. More Values™. Maybe they don’t plan on getting power through elections.

CRACKS IN THE MONOLITH. The 70th anniversary of victory over Nazi Germany is coming up and anyone who thinks about it knows that Moscow should be the principal place to celebrate it (just as Washington would be for victory over Japan). But Washington is making a boycott a Big Thing. The Czech President is going: so will others. Indeed, it’s becoming a test of independence. The foreign ministers of Hungary, Greece, Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey signed a declaration on strengthening energy cooperation; in other words, Russian pipelines. Greek PM Tsipras is in Moscow now, we’ll see what happens. And, a big one: everybody’s joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank against Washington’s wishes; note that Moscow cleverly waited until the Europeans had signed up before joining.

US LNG TO UKRAINE? Forget that one. Istanbul says not through the Bosporus, you won’t. Can’t blame them – an LNG tanker blowing up would make the Halifax Explosion look trivial.

REAL CONCERNS? US military leaders claim the Army is too small, USAF too old, Navy ditto. This with a budget bigger than the next 8 countries. Now, these may be attempts to shake the money tree or maybe, after years of worrying about IEDs, low level infantry activity and costfree bombing of this and that, the mighty US Armed Forces aren’t up to much else. Not the smartest time to pick a fight with Russia and start another war in Yemen. This writer thinks the US Armed Forces may now be hard-wired for failure.

MISSILE DEFENCE. Despite the apparent agreement with Iran, NATO says it will go ahead with missile defence plans. Putin continues to laugh.

NEW NWO. The Chinese Foreign Minister is in Moscow talking about the high level of cooperation. 107 joint agreements on cooperation and numerous long-term construction projects. It gets tighter. They say the two Presidents get along well together. Meanwhile Obama is reduced to boasting about a meaningless emissions agreement.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider