LET’S GO TO WAR WITH RUSSIA! Don’t think I can improve on Fred here: “The standard American approach to war is to underestimate the enemy, overestimate American capacities, and misunderstand the kind of war it enters”. (PS Fred was in Vietnam. So he’s been there, done that). The Saker earlier used the analogy of “suicide by cop“.

SANCTIONS. A Brussels think tank reports the share of Chinese goods in Russia’s imports increased from 5% in 2000 to 25% in 2014 and has continued to grow, while the share of EU-manufactured products has decreased from 70% to 55%. I wouldn’t expect the EU to be able to recover much of that market share even if the sanctions were dropped tomorrow. Russia, to put it simply, has no reason to trust anyone in the West ever again on anything: at any moment, some accusation can be manufactured.

ECONOMY. From Bloomberg, not an especially Russia-friendly source: “Russia’s economy has been slow to rebound, but things are perking up” and “Russia’s food producers have beaten an import ban and kept inflation in check“.

ARMOURED TRAINS! Who’d have thought they were still around?

NEW NWO. More data points. The presidents of Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran met; then Putin met with the President of Armenia (obviously working on the Karabakh problem.) Then we learn that Moscow plans to make the Hmeymim air base in Syria permanent. Then it turns out Russia is using a base in Iran to bomb Syria (permission to cross Iraq too). (Interesting historical bit). Then a Chinese military delegation visits Syria and talks of cooperation (Chinese report). A lot of data points for two weeks, eh?

DOPING. Read this. Even through the CBC’s bias you can see how completely the IOC rejected WADA’s report. Sue them, says this guy. Individually. Make them spend the rest of their lives in court.

LEAKING AND HACKING. Edward Snowden worked for the NSA and, appalled at what he saw, leaked. 50 analysts at the DIA, appalled at what they saw, leaked and a US Congressional hearing has validated their charges. Drone operators, appalled at what they’ve seen and done, leak. Assange has almost directly said that DNC insider Seth Rick, presumably appalled at what he saw, was the DNC leaker. And now more NSA leaks. More disgusted insiders I suspect. But Snowden disagrees: he thinks Russia did it to send this message: “This leak is likely a warning that someone can prove US responsibility for any attacks that originated from this malware server.” In short, Dear NSA, we know exactly what you do to interfere around the world and we can prove it. NSA ought to be airtight; I sometimes think that the most underrated reality of the Obama period is out-and-out incompetence across the board. For example: US statement, Russian response.

WOBBLES. British PM May phoned Putin and agreed relations should be improved; reiterated by the Foreign Minister. Let’s not get excited but don’t forget a couple of years ago how “isolated” Putin was, how he was “failing” and how Russia was “reeling”. Reality does eventually bite and its bite is strong.

TURKEY. Erdoğan and Putin met: here’s the press conference. Note Putin’s mention of a program of “cooperation for 2016–2019“; in short, it has to be earned. Syria is being discussed; it will be a long and hard discussion but, in the end, it’s Ankara that will have to come most of the distance. Especially if the story that Erdoğan is planning to go to Tehran is true: neither Moscow nor Tehran will support Daesh (nor any of the “moderate” Daeshlets Washington is always pretending to discover) nor will they turn on Assad. The new line is that both Moscow and Tehran are necessary in Syria. Ankara continues to burn bridges: Washington must chose between Ankara and Gülen.

CRIMEA. Whatever it was that whoever it was was trying to do by attacking Crimea, failed.

FROM LAPUTA’S KITCHENS TO YOU. So, just after learning that Breedlove’s “intelligence” was cooked up by neocon deskwarriors, we find that CENTCOM cooked intelligence data on Daesh.

SYRIA. “Dramatic Rescue! – 44 Staged Pictures. A kid. “The British government is… funding media operations for some rebel fighting groups“. No connection, of course.

MSM AND YOU. “The unfortunate fact is that when a massively important story is reported only once, with virtually no follow-up, the impact may be minimal. Only a small slice of the public encounters that initial account, and the lack of any repetition would eventually lead even those individuals to forget it, or perhaps even vaguely assume that the subsequent silence implied that the claims had been mistaken or later debunked.”

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIA-CHINA ALLIANCE. Beijing announced a Russia-China naval exercise in the South China Sea next month (“routine”, “not directed against third parties” of course). As I’ve said before: the lasting effects of a decade and a half of neocon influence (apart, of course, from lots of losing wars) will be the Moscow–Beijing alliance and the increased power of Iran.

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. Clinton “knows” he did it but the DNI doesn’t, confirmation bias says another, not Russia says Debka. But it diverts attention from what the e-mails actually reveal, doesn’t it? I am going to collect PDS examples all month, but I can’t resist this one from July: “Russia’s war on drugs is hurting America“; maybe you can follow the logic, I can’t. In the meantime enjoy Mark Sloboda’s list of individuals and political parties that Putin secretly controls.

OLYMPICS. The IOC rejected the blanket ban of Russian athletes. I haven’t bothered to follow the story. Seen it before: Milosevic, Libya, brown water. My default position nowadays is that it’s all lies.

“WINNING THE INFORMATION WAR”. I’ll leave Paul Robinson to dispose of it: he’s politer. Danielle Ryan mocks. But you don’t try to silence the other guy if you’re winning the argument, do you?

BREEDLOVE. Speaking of the “information war”, I told you the “evidence” of Russia’s “invasion” was rubbish. “The newly leaked emails reveal a clandestine network of Western agitators around the NATO military chief… The emails document for the first time the questionable sources from whom Breedlove was getting his information. He had exaggerated Russian activities in eastern Ukraine with the overt goal of delivering weapons to Kiev.” The leaks are here. One of his sources was Phillip Karber who had a (swiftly backtracked) connection to this idiocy.

CRIMEA. Outrageous of Trump to say Crimeans are happier in Russia? Gallup (28) agrees and so does a German polling organisation. And plenty of others too; French parliamentarians the latest. Not Nuland, though: it’s a “reign of terror“.

UKRAINE AND HISTORY. The Polish Parliament has declared 11 July a “National Day of Remembrance for Victims of Genocide committed by the Ukrainian nationalists on citizens of the Second Polish Republic”. At last an important Jewish publication notices who the heroes of new Ukraine are. And a little reminder of how many of them died in their beds in Canada.

TURKEY. The purges continue. We have the interesting statement from the US DNI that “Many of our interlocutors have been purged or arrested” in Turkey. The US general in charge of the area is also concerned about the effect on the “level of cooperation and collaboration”. There are rumours of coming agreements between Ankara, Moscow and Tehran. We will learn more when Erdoğan and Putin meet next week. My take on the coup attempt here: in brief, it was a real coup; Ankara blames Washington; it’s a big geopolitical change: I think Ankara has recalculated costs and benefits. The official line is that the pilots who shot down the Russian fighter were plotters and they have been arrested. Is Davutoğlu being set up to be the fall guy?

SYRIA. US weapons found in a warehouse in Aleppo – including TOWs which are not trivial weapons. All the CIA’s man in Syria knew when he took the job was that Syria was “extremely complex”; nevertheless he set up a scheme to overthrow the government.

THE EMPTINESS OF FORMER FLAPS. Slobodan Milosevic has been cleared. Once Newsweek’s “Face of Evil“, found guilty by “human rights” organisations and a child killer, he spent years on trial and died in jail. Ah well! Mistakes happen and that was all a long time ago. Albright and Clark made some money, Hillary Clinton landed “under fire”, the US got a big base, criminals got a whole country and jihadists got some training camps. So it all worked out in the end. The very same people are telling you the very same stuff about Putin. Check out the links, Dear Readers, unlike the NYT I don’t make stuff up: yes, Putin is Newsweek’s current monster, yes, “human rights” organisations (the same one, amazingly enough) find horrors in Crimea and yes, they say child murders. Same same. Milosevic died 10 years ago and now we learn. (“Murdered” is, of course, just a crazy “conspiracy theory”).

ARMENIA. Was that another failed colour revolution? Andrew Korybko, whose guidance I follow on such matters, thinks it may have been. Anyway, it seems to be over. Maidan may be the last of the series.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

FIRST BIG THING. I don’t know what Washington’s involvement in the coup attempt was but, in one respect, the reality doesn’t matter because Erdoğan & Co are blaming it. And more and more directly too: “The US tried to kill Erdoğan” says a connected newspaper editor. Erdoğan has specifically blamed Fethullah Gulen and has demanded his extradition from the USA – quite rudely. I am inclined to think that Ankara has gone through a cost-benefit analysis. Turkey is never going to be admitted into the EU (not that that is so attractive these days); the US lead in the Middle East has brought it nothing but disaster and, rightly or wrongly, Ankara doesn’t trust Washington. Therefore the Western orientation is mostly on the cost side. On the other hand, Ankara has just learned, in the most dramatic possible way, how much Russia’s enmity can cost it (and what its friendship can give if it’s true that Moscow tipped it off to the coup). Then there are the future benefits: tangible in the shape of becoming Russia’s gas spigot to Europe and the potential enormous gain from China’s “One Belt, One Road” strategy. It begins to look as if Erdoğan is going to turn Turkey towards Eurasia. And, if it’s true that the US did try to overthrow him, then his decision will only be strengthened. Another indication “Today, we are determined more than ever before to contribute to the solution of regional problems hand in hand with Iran and Russia and in cooperation with them” so we can probably expect changes affecting Syria too since it’s pretty clear what side Russia and Iran are on. The official line is that the Russian aircraft was shot down by people associated with the coup plotters; again, whether that’s true or not is less important than the fact that it is being said. We will learn more when Erdoğan and Putin meet next month. A turn by Turkey to the Eurasian side would be a geostrategic event of no small significance that would effectively take Turkey out of NATO (even if it never quite formally leaves). I am reminded again of bin Laden’s strong horse and weak horse. The USA is looking more and more like the weak horse – its immense power is so incompetently wielded that it becomes weaker with every blow that it strikes. I suspect more and more capitals are making cost-benefit analyses to calculate the winners.

SECOND BIG THING. The UK has a new government and the new PM says Brexit means Brexit. I remember that the USSR was one of the first federations to develop a procedure for getting out but the thing fell apart before anyone even initiated the first step. I wonder if the EU will hang together long enough for the procedure of Article 50 to get well under way. In what presumably was a response, the EU and NATO have just (8 July 2016 – did your MSM outlet report it?) merged their operations making plain what was formerly concealed. “In light of the common challenges we are now confronting, we have to step-up our efforts: we need new ways of working together and a new level of ambition; because our security is interconnected; because together we can mobilize a broad range of tools…” Et cetera. “Boost our ability to counter hybrid threats”. Since Moscow doesn’t actually practise “hybrid war” but NATO & Co do, expect more restrictions of liberty.

RUSSIAN SPORTS DOPING. Here we go again: we have all the information on MH17 but we won’t show it; Putin “probably” had Litvinenko killed. Why bother to talk to the Russians — they would just deny it. Mercouris discusses it. Who’s who in the scandal – it hangs on a rather small number of people.

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. “Is Donald Trump Working for Russia?” “It’s Official: Hillary Clinton Is Running Against Vladimir Putin“. Both writers are mainstream.

NATO COMMUNIQUE. I discuss it here. After years of trying to interest new members in interminable wars in dusty places where the people hate you and big money weapons are irrelevant, NATO has returned to the old days. Russia is to blame for everything. Hard to pick a favourite line but these three stand out: Russia carries out “provocative military activities near NATO borders” (never mind that NATO keeps moving its borders closer to Russia) , “[Russia’s] long-standing non-implementation of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty” (Russia actually ratified the Treaty, nobody in NATO did), and delusional complacency on past catastrophes: “These efforts mark an important step to strengthen Libya’s democratic transition” (!!!!). The unicorns have completely taken over in NATOland. Here’s the whole 16,000 words. I’m told that at the summit actually all they talked about was Brexit. 2016 is looking more and more like the year the race for the exits begins.

TRUMP. “Trump campaign guts GOP’s anti-Russia stance on Ukraine” – ie his minions took out the bit about supplying Ukraine with “lethal weapons”.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

TWO BIG THINGS. Brexit is one; too early to say what the long-term effects will be but they are likely to be large: support for the EU has been dropping pretty steadily. The anti-Russia crowd had the usual take: “How Brexit is a win for Putin” “Brexit Is a Russian Victory” Moscow invested in it and much more. Mind you, so frazzled are the neocons by the result that we see the admission of that which was never to be said out loud: “For decades, NATO and the European Union have silently worked in unison.” So, given that the EU and NATO are two sides of the same coin, maybe Putin & Co are happy. The other event to give Putin a smile was that Erdoğan has folded. One is reminded of bin Laden’s strong horse and weak horse: Washington’s activities over the last decade and a half have been powerful, immensely destructive but thoroughgoing failures; Moscow has played its hand rather skilfully. It would be surprising if countries were not recalculating costs and benefits.

“FROM RUSSIA WITH HATE“. Well, not that simple, actually. From Russia originally, to be sure, but not extradited as requested either. The suspected mastermind of the Istanbul airport bombing was given refugee status by Austria and Russian extradition requests were refused because he said he had been “tortured”. There is also a Georgian connection: read about it here – RFE Feb 2015 and Civil Georgia Apr 2013 – because your local news outlet won’t tell you. Story that he had a Georgian passport and was protected by Saakashvili. Another consequence of the delusion that the US and its surrogates can use jihadists in one place, fight them in another and that the jihadists will never move from the one place to the other. Speaking of which, another instantaneous collapse of a US-trained -paid and -equipped “moderate rebel” force in Syria last week; Daesh gets more weaponry from the US taxpayer.

GMO. As many people expected, Russia is establishing itself as GMO-free: “Government may ban the import into Russia of genetically modified organisms designed to be released into the environment and (or) products obtained from or containing such organisms.” Medvedev just said that “Now, Russia is able to feed itself without foreign food imports“; I think he’s a bit premature but not by much. Putin just extended food counter-sanctions for another 18 months. I don’t believe that Russia’s agricultural potential has ever been realised. But it’s starting to.

NATIONAL GUARD. Putin signed the law standing it up. Hahn and the Saker discuss it. I see it as another step in the defence of Russia against the threat from the West.

SANCTIONS. French report puts loss of business at $US60 billion, 77% borne by EU. Figures a year old; more by now. Just extended. Non-completion with Minsk II one of the reasons; here is the text: find the word “Russia” in it. But they’ve been good for Russia and bad for the EU.

THE “RUSSIAN THREAT”. Hacked e-mails show Gen Breedlove, when NATO commander, trying to force the White House’s hand. “The emails, however, depict a desperate search by Breedlove to build his case for escalating the conflict, contacting colleagues and friends for intelligence to illustrate the Russian threat.” The Germans and French were correct to say that he was making stuff up. So here we are today. Perhaps, in 15 years, there will be another Chilcot report.

RUSSIA-CHINA. “China and Russia vowed to unswervingly deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination.” Year 16 of the New American Century isn’t turning out so well, is it? China-Russia alliance, stronger Iran, unending wars with no victory in sight. Wobbly allies too.

REFUGEES. Remember when Russia’s intervention in Syria was going to create a “new wave of refugees” or when refugees were Russia’s new “weapon of choice“? Well, numbers are well down these days. Why? The EU-Turkey agreement is one reason but Syrians are returning to Syria.

SCO. India and Pakistan are about to be accepted as members and Iran is not far behind. The organisation quietly grows, stitched together by the Belt and Road.

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. “Vladimir Putin has a plan for destroying the West—and that plan looks a lot like Donald Trump.”

WESTERN VALUES™. Reactions to the Brexit vote: “This isn’t democracy; it is Russian roulette for republics.” “the central injustice of democracy” “Democracy has never meant the tyranny of the simple majority” “Racism is to blame” “I fear tolerant Britain is lost for ever“. And so on. In short, voting is good but only if it gives the correct answer. I look forward to reading these people excoriate Russia in the coming elections for lack of “democracy”.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada

RUSSIA MAKES NOTHING. In the last month, its Superjet 100 has been delivered to the first Western customer; its battle robots have been displayed; its new nuclear-powered icebreaker, the largest ever built, has been launched; it has exported more grain than anyone else; its anti-Ebola vaccine has passed the first round of trials; its space capsule returned three astronauts from the ISS. And, for the future: five of the top-ten spots in the ACM-International Collegiate Programming Competition were Russian.

SPIEF. Mercouris contrasts it with 2014: “In summary, the mood this year at SPIEF was of a country emerging from a period when it had been forced onto the defensive and which is now preparing itself for fresh advances both in its foreign policy and in its economic life.” Many more European attendees too.

SANCTIONS. Time to stop them and change policy say French Senate, writers in a British paper and a German paper, former German Chancellor, former German cabinet minister, former OSCE vice-president, former French President. Why? Because they’re costing: drop in EU food exports, Finnish factory shuts down, Le Monde sums it up. Russian agriculture, on the other hand is booming: even Bloomberg agrees, Russia is self-sufficient in chickens, nearly so in pork and moving fast in beef. And is the biggest exporter of grain. Sergey Ivanov rather hopes sanctions continue. His wish will be granted.

NONSENSE. It’s always a difficult choice, but I nominate “Putin’s Russia is a poor, drunk soccer hooligan” as the stupidest thing on Russia published lately. Out-of-date statistics and simple-minded direct USD-RUB comparisons.

MORE NONSENSE. A NATO general says “any attempted aggression by Russia using methods like it did in Crimea would not be allowed to go as far as it did there… ” Perhaps he can name a NATO country in which up to 25 thousand Russian troops, supported by 90% of the population, are legally stationed.

PROPAGANDA IS… “British navy intercepts Russian submarine on way to Channel“. More truthful is “UK Illegally Harasses Russian Submarine Engaged in Lawful Passage of English Channel“. No wonder the British press is dying.

…NOT WORKING. I take what comfort I can from polls like this one. It shows Europeans aren’t all that scared of Russia and that they don’t approve of the way relations with Russia are conducted. This after years and years of anti-Russia and anti-Putin propaganda.

RUSSIAN HACKERS… DNC. More unsourced accusations.

BROWDER. Nekrasov’s documentary “The Magnitsky Act—Behind the Scenes” has finally been shown and in Washington, despite attempts by Browder to shut it down. Doctorow reviews it.

IT’S A MYSTERY. Turkey’s President Erdoğan bemoans poor relations with both Obama and Putin and sent a letter to Putin hoping for better relations.

MIRROR IMAGE. I’ve been doing this since Chernyenko and am ever bemused by the reversal of positions. Then Moscow banned our broadcasts, now we want to ban its. Some want to restrict Russian Open Skies flights because Russia is using them to “expand its espionage capabilities“. When Eisenhower proposed the idea the Soviets rejected it for much the same reason. That’s what it’s for: open skies for transparency and confidence-building.

NATO AND STABILITY. Global Peace Index rates Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Somalia, Ukraine and Libya as among the ten most dangerous countries; all have seen NATO’s “stability generation“. The German Foreign Minister says “Anyone who thinks you can increase security in the alliance with symbolic parades of tanks near the eastern borders, is mistaken.” Another German Foreign Ministry person agrees. Der Spiegel intimates some allies are disturbed by Poland’s anti-Russia stance.

UKRAINE MISCELLANY. The Azov founder threatens to overthrow the government if it agrees to Minsk-style elections in Donbass. Sikorski (a cheerleader for Maidan) says Kiev should forget about Donbass and Crimea because it can’t afford to re-integrate them. Kiev had better get used to the end of Russian-subsidised gas. (Didn’t that used to be Russia’s “gas weapon“?) Hungary notices Transcarpathia and Kiev notices too. Poll shows Ukrainians still loath their politicians and are just as split on everything else. About five million citizens are now out of the country: that’s over ten percent.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

RUSSIA’S “CREDIT CRUNCH”. Remember “Russia faces ‘perfect storm’ as reserves vanish and derivatives flash default warnings” in January 2015? Mercouris explains why it didn’t: he and Jon Hellevig read reality better than the conventional pundits. Actually, Russia has quietly got rid of 30% of its external debt in two years. One more example of the perpetual underestimation of Russia’s strength, creativity and determination. A dangerous and provocative policy is being driven by people who know nothing, think they know everything and live in an echo chamber; they believe it’s safe to threaten Russia because they listen to each other telling each other that Russia is feeble. No, sanctions haven’t changed Moscow’s behaviour and have done more harm to the West; no, the Russian military is not a rusty hulk; no, there’s no opposition ready lead a people rising up against the hated “Putin regime”; no, Russia is not “isolated”. No, no, no: Russia is united, strong and well-managed. But put the headphones back on.

DOPING AT SOCHI. “Russia invades“… “probably murdered“… “Russia fails in Syria“… “Putin billions Panama“… Prove it I say; the WMSM has no credibility any more.

CRIMEAN TATARS. Actually, as Karlin shows, they are happy enough to be in Russian Crimea. I wonder how many of the Westerners suddenly so concerned about them (having never heard of them before) think they are the autochthonous inhabitants? Crimea itself is doing all right.

POWER. Last November “unknown” people (Right Sektor and Tatar activists – they took photos) blew up the power supply from Ukraine to Crimea. Full power has now been restored from Russia. So, water, power and food blockades have been successfully circumvented. All that remains is completion of the bridge; December 2018 is the target.

HOW STUPID DO THEY THINK WE ARE? Russian jets “threatening Estonian airspace… latest show of aggression…” And further down the page you learn the Russian aircraft were in international air space. OK that’s just the Sun, shrieking and stupid. How about this, then? “Britain’s defence secretary, Michael Fallon, described it [an earlier flight] as an ‘act of Russian aggression’“. Look at the map: to fly between Kaliningrad (Russia) and St Petersburg (Russia) involves flying pretty close to somebody. The audience is leaving; anti-Russian claptrap doesn’t pay the bills as The Guardian is discovering.

VICTORY DAY. Moscow parade video. The Immortal Regiment marches are spreading.

ADMIRED. These polls don’t mean much, but Putin’s No 6 position shows the propaganda isn’t working.

ABE VISIT. The first crack in G7 solidarity about Russia? Japan’s PM Abe Shinzo visited Putin in Sochi. Information about the meetings is slowly dribbling out. Possibly a new approach to the “northern territories” problem with Tokyo giving up territorial claims. Perhaps Tokyo wants to be an intermediary between Washington and Moscow. Maybe extensive cooperation proposals. Japan is hosting the next G7 meeting at the end of this month. It ought now to be apparent that Washington’s attack on Moscow, based as it was on arrogance, ignorance and wishful thinking has failed. We will see what develops.

PALMYRA CONCERT. Video. Western reaction pretty embarrassing: the rebarbative Philip Hammond set the style.

US MISSILE DEFENCE. The first installation – is it still supposed to protect from Iran? (apparently) – opened in Romania. Putin was right to laugh.

WHO KNEW? NATO’s not just a centre for “stability generation” but a centre for music criticism too. Do you think it knew who the winner was going to be before it happened?

THE WISDOM OF THE RETIRED. Former US Defense Secretary Hagel says the next US president should make it a priority to talk seriously with Putin: “I’d be very careful with this. Because the centrifugal force of this is so subtle it take you right down into the middle of a situation that you didn’t want to be in.” I hope some day to hear this sort of thing from people who are on the job: it’s as if they take your brain away when you’re working and only give it back as a retirement present. But, some don’t get it back – Russia’s invading Latvia next May. Why Latvia and why next May? Why not all three this weekend? And Ukraine by the end of the month? Note how nervous NATO membership has made some people – wasn’t it supposed to be an assurance of security? “We have signed up to protect a whole series of countries, even though we have neither the resources nor the intention to do so in any serious way.”

NEW NWO. A piece summarising Russia-China military cooperation. Like a stronger Iran and defeats all round, this is another unintended consequence of the neocon-led US policy.

CORRUPTION. Imagine an internationally respected survey showing equal levels of perceived corruption in Russia and the USA. The Ernst and Young 44th Global Fraud Survey finds 34% of Russians and 34% of Americans saying “Yes” to the question “that bribery/corrupt practices happen widely in business in their country” (a bit better than the world average of 39%). (Page 44). Especially interesting given Washington’s proclivity to use corruption accusations as foundations for regime change operations.

RUSSIA INC. We always hear that “Russia is declining“. Well, it isn’t. This from a member of Harvard’s Belfer Center, uses several different measurements to show Russia’s improvements since 2000; during this time most of its competitors have slipped. All pretty evident to commentators not living in Laputa. Speaking of which, some Russian sarcasm: “Backwards Russia under Putin’s Regime“.

NEW LAUNCH PAD. The Vostochniy Kosmodrome in the Amur region in Russia’s Far East just had its first launch. Video shows a brand-new blast deflector pit before it’s all burnt and dirty.

NATO. While a cynic might argue that NATO must return to the more profitable business of keeping the Russians out, the Americans in and the Germans down because fighting “terrorists” equipped with road-side bombs cannot ensure the retirement emoluments of generals, NATO itself is more sententious: it “safeguard[s] the freedom and security of its members through political and military means“. But a study shows rather little enthusiasm for even the most basic of its original functions: over half the Germans, French and Italians polled don’t want to fight to defend Poland or the Baltics. The authors bemoan this reluctance to rush to the colours at a time, say they, when “the Russian military has begun a campaign of intimidation against its neighbors”. Of course, they cannot imagine the possibility that these citizens simply don’t believe what they are told about Russian “aggression” and all the rest of it. To my mind, all the clatter about “Putin trolls” and Russia’s “information war” – the part of it that is not simply distraction and projection, at least – comes from the realisation the Party Line is not selling very well. In the old days they jammed our broadcasts, we didn’t worry about theirs. I find the poll results rather encouraging.

LATEST FAKE ATROCITY. “MSF says deadly air strike hit Aleppo hospital“. But the Russian MoD has published satellite photos showing the same damage was there a year ago. It’s all lies, propaganda and manipulation. Every now and again, even the tame WMSM admits it. A BBC reporter has quit – she can’t stand it any more. Very fishy story indeed: Kuwaiti incubators all over again.

CRACKS IN THE CARAPACE. Every now and again one can hope. A piece in the Boston Globe argues that conflict with Russia is against the US’ interest. The author says Clinton’s decision to expand NATO – “America’s worst foreign policy choice [after the Iraq invasion] of the post-Cold War era” – “was made haphazardly… He never convened a top-level meeting…” Just as Kennan said – “light-hearted“. And “How NATO became one of the most destructive forces on the planet” in Salon. But these will soon be compensated for by a hundred pieces on Putin’s troll factories or other junk.

UKRAINE. While on the subject of “information warfare”, we learn that Hromadske TV, which describes itself as “a joint project of Ukrainian journalists… objective and unbiased information“, turns out to be almost entirely funded by foreign governments. Wake me when you next see a Western media outlet say “foreign government funded Hromadske TV reported…”. Not Der Spiegel, nor NYT, nor The Guardian. The word громадське means “open” or “public”.

UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES. The Baltic ports are apparently suffering quite badly – and it’s not as if their economies were all that exciting before – from loss of Russian business. The US has a stockpile of unconsumed dairy products because of cheap European imports. Russia has passed the USA as the world’s number one wheat exporter. Russian tourists to Turkey are a tenth of last year. I continue to maintain that the net effect of the sanctions are more damaging to the West than to Russia. The French parliament evidently agrees – it has voted to end them. Not that, in the EU, it will make any difference. Any more than the Dutch referendum – swiftly overruled in parliament – did. Another indication the Official Line isn’t selling well.

NEW NWO. China will invest money to construct a Moscow–Kazan High-Speed Rail Project. Moscow has expressed support for Beijing’s position on Korea and the South China Sea.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada

PUTIN’S ANNUAL MARATHON Q&A. (Eng) (Rus) These things function as opinion polls and we heard a lot about bad roads, rising food and medicine prices and – something which should have stopped long ago – salary arrears. After pointing out that officials have claimed the economy was on the way up seven times now, one asked whether Russia was in a “black period or a white period”; “grey” said Putin: current estimates are a slight drop this year and growth next year. A farmer hoped that the food counter-sanctions would continue for the sake of his growing business; Putin expected them to. Very deep in the weeds and not very interesting; Putin said nothing new on external matters.

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. It’s now degenerated to bug-eyed craziness. Just this month we’ve been told that Putin is going out with Murdoch’s ex. The Panama Papers are about Putin; No! they’re by Putin. Dutch voters were thought-controlled by Putin. Putin’s secret army has infiltrated Europe. And the month isn’t even over. I look forward to her take. Squirt lighter fluid into a paper bag, take a deep breath and give us next month’s lunacy!

RUSSIAN “PROVOCATION”. Lots of excitement about Russian aircraft buzzing a US warship “in international waters”. International waters they were, but rather close to Russia. But then, NATO is never provocative: “Asked whether it was provocative to be conducting such exercises so close to Russia, he [UK defence minister] told The Guardian: ‘It is not Nato threatening Russia. This is Russia directly trying to intimidate the eastern and northern members of Nato through these flights, through its submarine activity and talk of renewing its ballistic missiles. Nato is not threatening anyone.’” Russia, on the other hand, is always provocative; illegal too: “Recent Russian military activity in European airspace is illegal, provocative and dangerous.” Probably not just a quiet cruise though – Helmer has his ideas about what was really going on. And there’s the story of the very same ship being shut down by Russian ECM in the Black Sea in 2014. So, there’s more to it than either side is saying.

WMSM. An American survey finds only 6% of the surveyed have a lot of confidence in the media; 85% rate “accuracy” as the most important component of trust. The two findings are obviously connected.

WAR PREPARATION. I believe that Moscow now understands the depth and permanence of the West’s hostility and is preparing for a real war. I have outlined the steps that are being taken in the Armed Forces here and Hahn and the Saker discuss the creation of the National Guard as a means of strengthening Russia against a “colour revolution” or “attack by refugees”. Which is not to say that Moscow wants a war; only that it realises that an attack from the West is a possibility.

CRIMEA. Full electrical power supply from Russia is almost completed.

NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL. First meeting in a while. “…there can be no return to practical cooperation until Russia returns to the respect of international law.” Or, as they say in Beijing: “Russia is a painful lesson of a major power that tried to follow the West, but only woke up after gaining nothing.”

UKRAINE: MAIDAN MASSACRE. “The analysis shows that armed groups of concealed Maidan shooters first killed and wounded policemen on the Maidan and then protesters. Armed groups of ‘snipers’ and parts of leadership of the far right organizations, such as the Right Sector and Svoboda, and oligarchic parties, such as Fatherland, were involved in various capacities in the massacre.” Definitive, impeccably researched and convincing. If you want to keep your remaining illusions about the “Revolution of Dignity”, don’t read it.

UKRAINE. “Our man” Yats is out, Groysman is in. We’ll see how long that lasts: “the new team should move forward quickly on Ukraine’s reform program… ”. Parubiy replaced him as parliament chair. And here’s who he is, again: more news the WMSM won’t give you.

YUKOS. Just when I had started to assume that law was just a faint memory in the West where Russia is concerned, I am surprised: the ruling that Russia had to pay a gigantic sum to Yukos shareholders has been quashed. Why? “they lacked jurisdiction”. Therefore, it should never have happened in the first place. This seizure is presumably over.

SYRIA. Janes tells us, in some detail, that Washington is pumping weapons into Syria again. Further evidence of two possibilities 1) no one is in charge in Washington 2) Washington simply cannot be trusted. Which, to a foreign capital trying to business with it, is a distinction without a difference.

IRAN. The first S-300s were shown at a parade. Ironic to think that a lasting effect of the neocon domination of Washington will be an Iran stronger than it would have been otherwise, isn’t it?

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Russia Observer

A SLUR TOO FAR? Many outlets headlined Putin in their Panama Papers stories. The Guardian maybe the worst: “Though the president’s name does not appear in any of the records, the data reveals a pattern“. Nor was my new favourite opiner on things Russian bothered by the fact that Putin’s name appears nowhere in the 11.5 million documents! Amazing! For the obsessed its all Putin everywhere. Even when he isn’t there. It appears that the WMSM is backing away as scorn mounts: could this be the long hoped-for tipping point when people understand that the coverage by the WMSM of Putin (and Russia, Ukraine and Syria) is nothing but propaganda? Wikileaks suggests “Putin attack was produced by OCCRP which targets Russia & former USSR and was funded by USAID & Soros“. But – a further stage in Putin Derangement Syndrome: “Has Wikileaks Been Infiltrated by Russian Spies?” As an anti-Putin measure I think it will backfire. Nonetheless this leak (or hack) will have big effects, but not in Russia.

RUSSIAN NATIONAL GUARD. A reorganisation of already existing Russian security forces provides an occasion for the BBC to show us how to spin the news.

LITVINENKO. As my readers know I never bought the conventional story about Litvinenko. Now a formerly high-ranking French policemen says he was murdered by a US-UK operation designed to discredit Putin and Russia: “Litvinenko has betrayed his employers, Berezovsky and the MI6, and has pocketed large sums of money”. Read it. Possible and it does account for the fact that everybody in the story worked for Berezovskiy. I still think that he poisoned himself through carelessness.

SYRIA. Syrian forces, with Russian air help, took Palmyra last week. The area is now being cleared of explosives (with help from these Russian robots. And here’s another Russian military robot – this one armed). Operations continue gradually but relentlessly. The current state of play discussed: Assad cannot be left out of the picture, the fiction of the “moderate opposition” is collapsing; Daesh is on the back foot.

US IN SYRIA. Washington’s – what’s the word? nothing so incoherent could be described as a “policy” – activities? surpass parody. LAT informs us “In Syria, militias armed by the Pentagon fight those armed by the CIA“. Daesh eats American. CENTCOM tells us that Daesh began in Syria (utter nonsense). Obama’s flunkys cook intelligence reports. Watch this spokesman grudgingly admit that maybe it’s a bit better that Palmyra be Damascus’ hands than in Daesh’s. How does Lavrov keep a straight face?

TURKEY-RUSSIA. And, for another example of confusion we turn to Turkey. A Turkish-owed ship was arrested after ramming the working bridge to Crimea. (The bridge is moving right along). An RT film crew in Palmyra discovers documents linking Daesh oil trade and looted antiquities to Turkey. The man who killed the parachuting Russian pilot has been arrested (on other charges) in Turkey. Erdoğan will “support Azerbaijan to the end“. And yet, during his photogenic visit to Washington he said he wanted to restore relations with Moscow.

MH17. The information that Kerry claimed he had is still so inscrutable that not even the father of the only American killed can see it.

UKRAINE. Its descent continues: its GDP is 60% of what it was in 1990 and still going down. After Condoleezza Rice suggested that Ukrainians could take comfort in being better off than Liberians, someone did the comparison: not that much better. Even readers of the NYT learn that it is a “corrupt swamp“. And this time The Guardian did find a name to write about: Poroshenko is named in the Panama Papers. Another vignette (imagine the WMSM coverage if this had happened in Russia). And the Netherlands PM says Ukraine can never be a part of EU. Population agrees.

KARABAKH. Azerbaijan’s President visits Washington, Kerry assures him of “U.S. support for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity” but also of a “concern about violence”. Three days later Azeri forces attack Karabakh. As I predicted in 2012, they didn’t do very well – not that hard a prediction, the Karabakhians are fighting for house and home. Anyway, after very modest gains there is a ceasefire brokered by Moscow. Karlin discusses. The Azerbaijan Foreign Minister is quoted as saying that everyone should return to his barracks – evidence that Karlin is correct to conclude that it was really a defeat for Baku.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Website: Russia Observer

(Note 25 March. Just after I put this out I read Jon Hellevig’s “The Hidden Story of Crimea’s Economic Success” which shows up the WaPo story for the nonsense it is.)

THINGS THE WMSM WON’T TELL YOU. “The only developed countries where birth rates remain higher than Russia’s are Australia, New Zealand, and Iceland.” Not, of course that mere facts slow down the anti-Russia propagandists: “Fertility rates in Russia are falling, and Russia’s population is in decline…” (last June) but, then, the Russia they rail against exists mostly in their imaginations.

ECONOMIST. The latest “A hollow superpower” will give as good a laugh in a few years as this prediction from 2012: “The beginning of the end of Putin“. Don’t know why people bother to renew their subscription: it’s not as if anything it says changes year by year.

ECONOMY. In February the industrial production index grew 1% year on year; first growth in a year.

OIL. The major oil producers are supposed to meet next month to discuss production freezes.

CRIMEA. In honour of the second anniversary of Crimea’s return to Russia we have this from the WaPo: “Crimea’s ‘new normal’ of repression”. Not even their readers believe it: the most liked comment is “On the whole, this editorial is another spiteful, propagandistic and manipulative propaganda piece.” Here are a number of Western opinion polls showing widespread, and growing, enthusiasm there.

SYRIA. Increasingly incoherent Washington spokesman says Syrians can make any decision they want as long as it’s the right one. The ceasefire seems to be holding reasonably well and Syrian forces continue to gain ground. Russian special forces were there (no surprise: probably still are). Should have listened to Russia in 2012, says the former Special Envoy to Syria. This makes me wonder if there’s any truth in this. RT crew claims to have found documents on Daesh-Turkey oil trade. My take: “Another Lesson from Moscow Washington Won’t Learn“.

PUTIN IS WEAPONISING…. Stupidity.

LESIN. Transpires not a heart attack after all but likely murder. FBI dunnit. Putindunnit. (Of course Putin would wait until he got to Washington to kill him rather than an easy hit in Moscow. Probably.) Perhaps we’ll find out some day.

FOOD. Good report from an intelligent observer on situation in St Petersburg.

I WAS WRONG. On who today’s poster child of Russian horribleness is; a new meme is born. I can’t be bothered researching it.

LIES. The truth dribbles out. “The Big Lie About the Libyan War“. “Secret cables from the United States embassy in Beijing have shown there was no bloodshed inside Tiananmen Square“. “A 2006 cable from US Ambassador to Syria William Roebuck discussed ‘potential vulnerabilities’ of the Assad administration and the ‘possible means to exploit them’.” All that hype about Syria was actually about Israel and Iran. CIA was in Afghanistan before the Soviets entered. All that hype about Libya? don’t forget Qaddafi’s gold. Veterans Today permits itself a victory lap for getting Ghouta right. But don’t worry: everything you read today is true.

WESTERN VALUES™. The (new) US general says “I grieve with you” over the destruction of the Kunduz hospital. Newest story, replacing the old and newer, by the way: “targeting sensors experienced a glitch”. Apparently, you can’t see a lit-up hospital from a circling C-130.

OOPS. According to the Electoral Integrity Project, the USA ranks 47th in the world for quality of elections. Bit of schadenfreude for the country that is so quick to judge other elections.

DOCUMENTARY ON UKRAINE. “Ukraine, les masques de la révolution” here with English sub titles and background. The author started out believing all the “revolution of dignity” “European civilisational choice” stuff but found it rather different when he got there.

NEXT YEAR WILL BE BETTER. “We continue to believe that 2016 can and should be the year that Ukraine breaks free from the unholy alliance of dirty money and dirty politics that has ripped off Ukrainians for far too long” – Nuland. Or not: “Catastrophe has no end in sight” – Jim Rogers.

NUCLEAR UKRAINE. A reminder that things can still get a lot worse. Here’s a report claiming that Kiev has taken many of the radioactive vehicles left at Chernobyl and re-used them or melted them down. Ukraine nuclear engineers write protest letter about dangerous orders. And there’s already the concern about US-supplied fuel. Other worries have appeared in the past. There are a lot of reactors in Ukraine.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Canada Websites: US-Russia, Russia Insider, Russia Observer