KACZYNSKI DEATH. Medvedev’s address to the Polish people; Putin and Tusk (and Sergey Shoygu) at the crash site; RIAN’s roundup of coverage; mourning in Russia. There was a very similar crash in Poland in 2008 in which a lot of the Air Force’s leadership was killed. There are assertions that Kaczynski had failed (or succeeded) in overruling his pilot once before. The joint Polish-Russian investigative team promises a conclusion soon.

CONSPIRACIES. Some in the Rightosphere were quick to look for a conspiracy. Some reacted almost hysterically foretelling: “new, perhaps irresistible, pressure on Poland to toe the Kremlin line” (piece savaged here). Others were more subtle about looking in Moscow’s direction. Some flatout accused Moscow of engineering the crash. In these cases the beginning and the end of their accusation was cui bono? Moscow benefits (but they never quite spell out how it benefits, other than their assumption of an omni-directional malevolence); therefore Putindunnit. Connect the dots, there are no accidents. Ridiculous and revealing.

THE TEAM. In the US Medvedev said “I therefore believe very strongly that Russia now requires several decades of calm and stable effort to build an effective political and economic system”. This appears to be in accordance with the wishes of the population. A poll shows 72% of respondents prefer order to democracy (although a closer look at the results shows rather more nuance: “order” includes rule of law and individual rights. “Democracy” has acquired a rather bad odour in Russia what with the corruption and chaos of the 1990s and the attribution of the adjective to people like Saakashvili and Bakiyev). At any rate the population and its rulers set a very high value on stability. Not surprisingly, given the course of Russian history since 1905. Of course the trick is to prevent the stability from becoming stagnation.

JUDGE MURDERED. Federal judge Eduard Chuvashov was murdered in Moscow on Monday. The opinion is that the murderers were from Russia’s racist gangs against which he had been active.

PLUTONIUM. Medvedev ordered the last Russian reactor producing plutonium to be shut down today.

PEOPLE POWER. The well-organised and effective Federation of Russian Car Owners has launched a nation-wide campaign against “blue lights”. In theory, only certain official vehicles are allowed the flashing blue lights that order all opposing traffic to part allowing them to drive as fast as they care to. In practice – and this has been going on for years, despite half-hearted attempts to cut them back – plutocrats and hoods can easily acquire the lights. It is important to remember – before these activities are fitted into Procrustean tropes about a Medvedev-Putin rivalry or the inner bankruptcy of “Putin’s Russia” – that the Federation’s aims are fully in step with Medvedev’s: everything it does is directed against “legal nihilism”. Luzkov, Mayor of Moscow where the “blue light” abuse is worst, in fact believes that only the President, Prime Minister and Patriarch should have one. The combined pressure from both top and bottom is more likely to produce results than pressure from one direction only. Just for fun, for those who think Medvedev and Putin have opposing aims, here’s Putin in 1999 enumerating the characteristics of “strong state power in Russia”: “creating conditions beneficial for the rise in the country of a full-blooded civil society to balance out and monitor the authorities”.

STALINSHCHINA. A road-building crew in Vladivostok has uncovered a mass grave,

SUICIDE BOMB. A suicide bomber failed to kill the Nazran police chief and blew herself up (or was blown up – it is not clear whether these women actually possess the trigger).

KYRGYZSTAN. The former government has folded. After trying unsuccessfully to hold his rallying speech in Osh, Bakiyev went to Kazakhstan and latest reports say he has resigned. His Defence Minister has been arrested. Moscow and Washington have promised financial aid. The latter after Otunbayeva promised to honour agreements on the Manas base. Ten days – remarkably quick: obviously lots more to learn about it.

GEORGIA. Again the Europe-US divide. The UK Foreign Secretary criticised Saakashvili for harassing the opposition and controlling the news media; meanwhile a US warship arrived in Georgia for joint exercises. Of course, Tbilisi is making a “significant contribution to the international effort in Afghanistan”; Obama also “appreciated President Saakashvili’s continuing commitment to democratic and economic reforms in order to fulfil the promise of the Rose Revolution.”

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

NUKES. Medvedev and Obama signed the strategic arms treaty in Prague today. The text of the treaty is here. Such agreements are, no doubt, important but have little to do with the threats the two actually face.

MISSILE DEFENCE. On Tuesday Foreign Minister Lavrov said “The initial focus [of Washington’s current missile defence plans] is on regional systems, systems that do not prejudice strategic stability, and do not create risks for the Russian strategic nuclear forces.” Everything else is “when and if” Moscow thinks something else is happening (Moscow has appended to the Treaty a statement stressing that it only holds if Washington “refrains from developing its missile defence capabilities quantitatively or qualitatively”). Serving the ball to Washington, Medvedev said: “We offered to the United States that we help them establish a global anti-missile defence system, and we should think about this, given the vulnerability of our world, the terrorist challenges and the possibility of using nuclear arms by terrorists existing in this world”.

PRISONS. A measurement of the dreadful Russian prison system was offered by a Deputy Prosecutor General who said that 4150 people had died in correctional facilities and 521 in pre-trial detention centres in 2009. The last figure is especially appalling given that most of those should be out on bail. There are currently 861,867 people imprisoned across Russia. See below.

ECONOMIC CRIMES LAW. Yesterday Medvedev signed an amendment to the law on economic crimes. It does two things: it raises the level of economic value of the crime six-fold and sets bail levels. The object is to stop petty harassment of businesses and to encourage bail to replace pre-trial detention. As Medvedev said, when he promised to do something: “Corrupt officials get the word from an entrepreneur’s competitor, put the entrepreneur behind bars, and then let him out after he coughs up a certain sum.”

JIHADIST ATTACKS. No one was hurt by a bomb on a Dagestan railway line Sunday. But the next day a suicide bomber and a follow-up car bomb in Ingushetia killed and injured several people. Medvedev has ordered the creation of a “separate permanently active counterterrorism operations group” in the North Caucasus.

ECONOMY. Optimistic predictions from an American analyst on the “‘biggest bounce’ in the world” for Russia’s economy: 7% growth this year.

VISITS. A reason for the duumvirate, as we saw this week, is that the workload can be shared: Putin was in Venezuela 2-4 April and is now in Novosibirsk and on 6-7 Medvedev visited Slovakia and is now in Prague.

STALIN. Despite much disapproval (and from the Kremlin too) Mayor Luzhkov insists that Stalin’s visage will appear among posters of war leaders in Moscow’s Victory Day decorations. I wonder how this will turn out: an immoveable object meets an irresistible force.

INTERNET. A VTsIOM poll finds 38% of respondents use the Internet “several times a month” and 23% daily.

KATYN. Yesterday Putin and Polish PM Tusk took part in a ceremony commemorating the massacre of Polish prisoners at Katyn. Putin pointed out that the Russian people could not be held responsible. This is true: and neither should the Georgian people be held responsible; even though the idea was a Mingrelian’s, approved by a Georgian and carried out by the Georgian-dominated NKVD. The truth is that the Bolsheviks did it.

SOUTH OSSETIA. Moscow and Tskhinvali have signed an agreement on Russian basing in South Ossetia. The base will be in Tskhinvali and hold up to a large battle group. A similar agreement was concluded with Sukhumi in February. There will be no more Georgian military adventures into these areas.

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC. The opposition says it has taken control, claiming control of the security forces, and formed a provisional government headed by Roza Otunbayeva. President Bakiyev has fled to the south. Protests began in Talas on Tuesday and spread to Bishkek with some violence. Several discussions argue that the overthrow is rooted in big increases in utility costs with the profits going to Bakiyev’s favourites. Some reports speculate on the possibility of civil war (north vs south) but former President Akayev thinks Bakiyev does not have the necessary support. Moscow has reinforced its base at Kant and, it appears, is close to recognising the new government. Washington has a major stake in Manas. Nonetheless, it appears to me that the overthrow is sui generis and has nothing to do with either Moscow or Washington.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

BOMBINGS. As the world knows, there were two bombs on the Moscow Metro on Monday and another two in Dagestan two days later. The use of suicide bombers in both cases makes it clear to the meanest intelligence who is responsible. Even so, despite the other suicide bombings in the last week (two in Afghanistan, one in Pakistan), there remain those who cannot make the connection and insist that jihadist attacks in Russia are sui generis and unrelated to anything else. Nonetheless, the Western MSM coverage was generally more understanding of reality than it has been. Thus it may be that a result of these events will be an increased understanding that jihadism is a worldwide phenomenon and that practically everyone on earth – Shiites or Sufis in Iraq, Sunnis in Pakistan, Buddhists in Thailand, Hindus in India, Christians in Nigeria – is a target. Note that security in the New York and Washington subways systems was stepped up suggesting some sort of apprehension of an attack on the USA.
JIHADISTS. The bombings were no doubt attempts to gain revenge for the successes of the security forces in the last couple of weeks. One of the original Arab jihadists who helped Khattab ignite the second war in Chechnya was killed 2 weeks ago; on the 22nd the “Emir of Grozny” was killed in Makhachkala; another leader was killed in Kabardin-Balkaria on the 25th; on the 30th a raid in Ufa captured the local leader. Together with the killing of Buryatskiy earlier in the month, the jihadist leadership in Russia has been hard hit in March.
PROTESTS. The “opposition” held its much-advertised “Day of Anger” protests across Russia two weeks ago. The largest turnouts were in Kaliningrad and Vladivostok where the organisers were greatly helped by the well-organised Russian car-owners federation. Western MSM reaction was mixed: some, following their predilection for decision-based evidence making, made them out to be much more significant than they were; others were more balanced. These protests remind me of the Yeltsin era where one could see supporters of Nikolay II side-by-side with supporters of his murderers. It makes little rational sense to call them “the opposition” as if to imply there is something that really unites them. Most of the time, the majority, when not communists, are rent-a-thugs from the National Bolsheviks; not, generally speaking, a group anyone would want to associate with and hardly “democratic” or “liberal” by anyone’s definition.
PEOPLE POWER. The above having been said, Russia does have genuine protests. The car-owners federation has the potential to grow into something real – although its objects are in line with the stated aims of the government. The other protests that are real – and have effects – are those against rising utility prices. There was one in Saratov and another in Arkhangelsk and Medvedev has reacted. He ordered a freeze in utility price increases and also ordered an inquiry into unjustified hikes. This is a difficulty for the government: the utility prices have to rise to reflect economic reality, but the process is painful and unpopular.
“COMPATRIOTS”. The government has prepared a law that will reduce the number of “compatriots abroad” (соотечественники за рубежом). When the USSR broke up, Moscow agreed to give citizenship to any former USSR citizen who could not or would not have citizenship otherwise. The rest of us, it should be understood, were profoundly grateful: Moscow’s offer ensured that the disappearance of the USSR would not create any stateless persons (as had happened, for example, after the breakup of empires in 1919). This provision was necessary in the cases where local citizenship was not automatically granted to residents (Estonia and Latvia) and where the locals did not agree with Stalin’s mapmaking (Abkhazia, Transdnestr et al). This particular provision ended some time ago. Then there were the “compatriots” who were ethnic Russians in the new countries who might not want to remain there. The new law will greatly reduce this vague category and restrict it to self-identifiers. The connection will be now largely cultural.
JACKSON-VANIK. On her visit to Moscow, Clinton said Washington wanted to lift the Jackson-Vanik Amendment. Well, what’s stopping it? It is an unnecessary slight and promising to lift it and not doing so will irritate Russians and make the suspicious believe that Washington is ultimately hostile. Enough already do.
NEWS YOU WON’T HEAR. Zaporozhie, Ukraine is erecting a Stalin statue. His images will not appear in Moscow.
TROUBLES IN PARADISE. Lukashenka has just complained that Belarus cannot get “transparent and fair terms of mutual trade” with Russia. Probably not unconnected with the relative vectors of the two economies but another illustration that the “Belarus-Russia Union” is mostly for show.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

LOCAL ELECTIONS. In Sunday’s local elections United Russia didn’t do as well as usual. No doubt, this will be analysed to death according to the writer’s preconceptions. I say there are three possibilities 1) a fluke; 2) United Russia, for some reason, didn’t amplify its results; 3) a level of dissatisfaction with local bosses. It is too soon to say which is which and whether this is a trend or not.

PUSHING ON A ROPE. In a meeting Medvedev emphasised that his instructions must be carried out. His complaint was indicative: “I regularly receive reports from the Cabinet, the regions, and other organisations, these reports are often not particularly meaningful.” A common problem in Russia and contrary to the assumption so many have that everything is Russia goes as planned by the cabal at the top. Shades of “We hear that Putin has promised it to you, so go and ask Putin”.

MVD REFORM. Medvedev dismissed a deputy justice minister; the individual, Yuriy Kalinin, had previously been in charge of the prison system and thus his dismissal may be connected with the shocking state of Russia’s prisons and more fallout from the death of Sergey Magnitskiy. Meanwhile a police officer in Samara Oblast been charged over the death of man in a detoxification centre.

CORRUPTION. RIA-Novosti has a video of a traffic policeman swallowing a bribe. The story is that the traffic policeman stopped a motorist and demanded a bribe; the motorist left promising to get the money but called the police; they set up the sting and arrested the traffic policemen. What is interesting is 1) that the motorist went to the police and 2) that they acted. Maybe Medvedev’s anti-corruption drive is gaining some traction.

BILLIONAIRES. Forbes has its latest list of Russian plutocrats, which people seem to take seriously. As for me, I’m still awaiting Forbes’ explanation of how Chernomyrdin’s US$1.1 billion in 2001 was all gone by 2004.

INDIA. Putin visited India and had a fruitful trip. Agreements covered nuclear power plants, GLONASS and exports (including weaponry). Delhi is playing a careful role with closer relations with Washington and Moscow as it gradually becomes a major player.

WHAT’S IN A NAME? On Monday a series of arrests across Europe, but especially in Spain, scooped up members of a criminal gang, although the boss himself escaped the roundup. Was it a Russian or Georgian gang? The BBC says Georgians. Some French media (but not all) say Russians. Euro News is on the fence. Russians, Georgians, Russians, Georgians. Whatever. The truth seems to be that it was a Georgian gang but it’s sometimes difficult for the MSM to get its clichés straight. Reminiscent of the sudden death of Badri Patarkatsishvili in 2008: some in the UK MSM saw it as another enemy of Putin suddenly dying; the story stopped fast when they learned he was Saakashvili’s enemy.

FAKE RUSSIAN INVASION. On Saturday Imedi TV broadcast a “simulation” of a Russian invasion of Georgia in June. As with the The War of the Worlds broadcast, the station was not over-careful to assure viewers that it wasn’t true. Watching it makes it clear that the real point of the broadcast, in addition to keeping the Russian scare going, was to smear Saakashvili’s opposition as a fifth column: the broadcast had them making a statement “declaring the authorities as illegal and announcing the establishment of a so called people’s government” and obviously collaborating with the invaders. This point was hammered home by Saakashvili. Saakashvili is, of course, pretending that he had nothing to do with it, but Imedi TV is under his control: it was forcibly taken over in November 2007. There is a purported phone intercept of Saakashvili approving the whole thing: chose your theory for its origin – the truth, Moscow or the Georgian Interior Minister. Perhaps the strangest thing about the scenario is how quickly Saakashvili’s regime falls – other than some, apparently, civilian resistance, no one fights back, the Army goes over. What is going on in Saakashvili’s mind? Does he want to be a martyr? Or, given that the only clear thing about this farrago is that Burjanadze and Noghaideli are portrayed as traitors, is he about to arrest the whole opposition? The broadcast has been roundly condemned: by the Catholicos-Patriarch; the OSCE and the EU Monitoring Mission; the British and French Ambassadors (whose faces were used with fake dialogue); the President of the EC (who advised Tbilisi “to refrain from any activities which could exacerbate local or regional tensions”; the US Ambassador (who took the opportunity to chide the regime for the “inconsistent application of the rule of law”).Certainly this curious episode has not improved Saakashvili’s standing in Europe.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

PEOPLE POWER. For years Russian big wheels have been whizzing down roads ignoring the rules confident that, should there be an accident, their connections will help the police to come to the correct conclusion. As it were. In Irkutsk in December, the daughter of the regional election committee chairwoman ploughed into two pedestrians. No charges were laid. A couple of weeks ago, the car of a LUKoil executive killed two people in a head-on collision; the victims were blamed. This was the last straw and a strong public opinion movement sprang up. Two observations (in addition to the obvious one) here. First, these protests are made possible by “new media” – YouTube, social networking, cellphone cameras. Second, an organisation of car owners called Freedom of Choice has mobilised in other cases and stands ready to go into action quickly. This is what is called civil society. For those who are immediately going to interpret this as signs of disquiet with Medvedev, the protesters are entirely in step with his pronouncements. But it is also a challenge for him to put his efforts where his mouth is; as a public appeal to him said: “If you take the case under your personal control and punish the person responsible for the crash, you will prove your commitment to the fight against corruption.” Yesterday Medvedev ordered an investigation. The Irkutsk campaign did force the police to re-consider.

NATO. Continues its journey towards reality. Several former German officials have said that the time has come for NATO to invite Russia to join. The NATO SACEUR is reported to have said Russia should become a “partner” in missile defence. Better late than never, I suppose, but it is rather late: as the Germans said: “One of the key bones of contention is that, for historical reasons, the new members of NATO define their security as being directed against Russia, while the imperative for Western Europe is that security in and for Europe can only be achieved with and not against Russia.” Meanwhile, Russia’s Ambassador to NATO, has offered a million dollars to “the person who will prove that NATO is not pursuing military planning against Russia”. Russian diplomats must be well paid! Of course, this is a stunt: militaries plan for all kinds of contingencies.

POLICE. The policeman who made the YouTube recording and was then arrested by his former colleagues, reports that he has been released from custody.

CORRUPTION. Investigators claim to have broken up a racket, involving a former Moscow Oblast finance minister, which made off with property and budget funds in 2007-2008.

OLYMPIC ANGST. Putin has called for a probe into use of funding for athletes (US$110 million says he). Meanwhile more nonsense on how the performance shows that “Russia is at a standstill”. Mind you, Russians can be just as silly about it. To paraphrase Freud: sometimes sport is just sport.

BURYATSKIY. In an important success for the authorities, Said Buryatskiy (aka Aleksandr Tikhomirov) was killed in Ingushetia last week. The FSB has linked him to the St Petersburg train bombing. This will be a heavy blow to the jihadists in the North Caucasus as Buryatskiiy may be said to have re-animated the jihad there both as a theoretician and recruiter of suicide bombers.

BUSHEHR. Foreign Minister Lavrov said that the Bushehr NPP would be launched this year. Ah! the years do roll by: here from a year ago.

RUSSIA-GEORGIA. Nino Burjanadze, one of the three “Rose Revolution” leaders and now opposition leader, has completed her visit to Moscow. Her take on the talks: “I participated in this meeting not to talk about the past, but to try to find solution for the future.” And another of Saakashvili’s former allies is there as well. Meanwhile Saakashvili continues to hire US PR companies.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE. Yanukovych had a fruitful trip to Moscow with much talk of improving relations. But, as expected, he laid down some markers, particularly that Moscow must find a new base when the Sevastopol lease runs out in 2017. I couldn’t agree more: Russian fleets should be based in Russia.

UKRAINE. Mykola Azarov is the new PM. He declared that “The country has been plundered, the coffers are empty, state debt has risen threefold …”. Parliament also dismissed the head of Ukraine’s National Security Service. Perhaps we will finally learn about the famous “poisoning” of Yushchenko.

THAT TIME OF YEAR AGAIN. Latvian Waffen-SS veterans want to hold a parade; the city says no; the ruling party says it will appeal. Last year they marched anyway, despite a city ban.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

RUSSIA AND FRANCE. I have been saying for some time that Paris has a better take on the reality of Georgian-Russian relations than other capitals and that this knowledge is gradually working its leaven. The first reason is Salome Zurabishvili who, as a former French Foreign Service employee, has a certain inside track in France. The second is that Foreign Minister Kouchner made the effort to visit the Ossetian refugees in Vladikavkaz and learned more about the actual situation than other capitals and the Western MSM who did little more than parrot Tbilisi’s press releases. Thus, Paris freed itself from much of the nonsense about the 2008 South Ossetia war and has come to realise how much Saakashvili was manipulating coverage and to better understand the real nature of his rule. Medvedev just visited Paris and meetings seem to have gone very well with Sarkozy’s address at the state dinner a concise statement of past relations and present common interests. Medvedev responded in kind. (Press conference. The talks seem to have covered a lot: visa-free regime, Georgia, Mistral sales, Middle East, new European security architecture. Both said much about trusting each other). Indeed, it seems to have been quite an important visit and should serve to further move the reflex reaction away from the binary position that whatever “we” do is good and whatever Moscow does is bad.

BUSINESS. On Friday Medvedev met with business leaders and promised to reduce the “administrative burden”. True to his word he then introduced a bill that would set bail limits for people accused of economic crimes. There is very little bail in Russia and the interminable pre-trial detentions in the terrible prisons can be fatal. It’s also a racket: as Medvedev said, “Corrupt officials get the word from an entrepreneur’s competitor, put the entrepreneur behind bars, and then let him out after he coughs up a certain sum”. So that is a step forward as was the coming into effect Tuesday of a law banning businesses from forming their own security departments (the 90s saw much fighting between biznessmen and their private armies – and their media outlets).

OLYMPICS. Russia’s relatively poor performance has been the cause of some angst. The Olympics, which long ago ceased to be about mere sport, serve as the peg for the silliest comment about Russia that I have ever seen: “but why not try to measure Russia’s greatness by its ability to build a free and prosperous country, a good global citizen at peace with its neighbors? This kind of Russia might also fare better at the Olympics. The four leading medals winners in Vancouver are free-market democracies.”

GLONASS. Despite the happy talk from Moscow, there appear to be problems with the system. Three more satellites were orbited yesterday but we are now informed that of the 22 up there only 16 are functioning. Thus, despite many promises of imminent world-wide coverage, the system can barely maintain coverage of Russia. I hope Putin doesn’t lose his dog.

RUSSIA AND EUROPE. The Constitutional Court has affirmed that Moscow should obey Strasbourg human rights court decisions. Given the fact that a very large proportion of the cases there are against Moscow, I’m not convinced that this was a wise ruling. But it does conform to Art 15.4 of the Constitution.

ZHIRINOVSKIY. Is in the business of staying in the public eye (more difficult these days because the Kremlin doesn’t need his votes). He has just proposed cloning himself “for the nation’s benefit”. He is a very clever clown figure and, in retrospect, it is very fortunate that he (and the Communist Party) absorbed many of the nasty super nationalists in the 1990s rather than much more dangerous figures prevalent then.

UKRAINE. Yesterday Tymoshenko’s government failed a no confidence vote. Yanukovych’s party has 30 days to put together a coalition and 60 a government.

GEORGIA. Readers will notice I have said little about Georgia lately. The reason is that one of my favourite sources (Civil Georgia) seems to carry nothing now but pro-Saakashvili entries. I believe that it is no longer a reliable source. Enthusiastic supporters of “democratic” Georgia ignore findings like this from the Committee to Protect Journalists that “press freedom in this small South Caucasus nation stagnated due to persistent state manipulation of news media”. I am left with Georgian Times (which sounds as if it’s been taken over too); this and this, of whose provenance I am not certain. (If any reader knows of an English-language source uncontaminated by the government, I would appreciate knowing). At any rate, the Kazbegi-Verkhniy Lars crossing point was opened after a long delay (for repairs said Moscow) on Monday and former Saakashvili ally Nino Burjanadze arrived in Moscow and talked to Putin today. But Washington remains in thrall.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

THE SOBCHAK INFLUENCE. Medvedev and Putin are disciples and admirers of Anatoliy Sobchak and both commemorated the tenth anniversary of his death on Saturday. Medvedev, who knew him as one of his students and later worked with him in St Petersburg, gave praise to “the man who first brought legitimacy to Soviet politics”. In an interview for a program on his life and work, Putin paid very high tribute to him. He described how he began working for him when he was Mayor of St Petersburg, how he quit the KGB in the August 1991 coup attempt (“I wrote a letter of resignation in the first hours after the coup began… The point is that I had made my choice and I could not change it. It was my duty to be there, defending our shared ideals and the concept of national development which Mr Sobchak and I had put into words and implemented together.”) and how much he learned from him in work habits and morality: “The time when I worked with Mr Sobchak was the most valuable part of my education. It was in that period that my basic principles of work and communication took shape. The fundamentals of my personal principles and behaviour probably began to develop much earlier, at home and later at the university, where I studied and he taught. However, my work with him had tremendous practical significance for me”. So we have both the present and previous Presidents telling us that they regard Sobchak as their mentor and example and regard their times working under him as formative. Perhaps, the Kommentariat should pay more attention to this relationship and less to the lazy assumption that all we need to know is that Putin was a KGB officer and Medvedev is his sock puppet.

POLICE REFORM. Reform of the Interior Ministry started with a bang as Medvedev dismissed 15 senior MVD generals, including 2 Deputy Ministers (they to be replaced by civilians). Some were dismissed because of violations of the law by them or their subordinates, some to clear the way for new people. As the Russians (and many others) say: “The fish rots from the head” (although the Minister himself appears to be safe. And in uniform as an Army General: surely it is time to stop giving Armed Forces ranks to policemen.)

ENERGY. Putin has signed a resolution setting out the principles of Russia’s long-term energy market, Details are not yet out but he promises clear and consistent regulations that companies will have to work within (and punishment if they do not). As has suddenly become fashionable, he proposes investment for new nuclear power plants.

LAW AND ORDER. Members of a racist skinhead gang the “White Wolves” (interestingly, one of them has a Georgian surname) have received heavy sentences for numerous murders. Investigators say they have identified a suspect in the murder of Natalia Estemirova.

NATO. Confusing messages out of NATO: US Secretary of State Clinton calls for cooperation: “While Russia faces challenges to its security, NATO is not among them”; Secretary General Rasmussen says NATO has not given up plans to accept Georgia and Ukraine. By the way, the new Russian military doctrine distinguishes between a “military danger” (военная опасность) and a “military threat” (военная угроза). NATO expansion is the former and clearly not as serious as the latter.

UKRAINE. Viktor Yanukovych was inaugurated today as President and made a speech to the Rada (with several Christian references, interestingly) in which he pledged that Ukraine sought good relations all round and would not join any military alliances (“We are ready to participate in such processes as a European non-aligned state”). Symbolising this, his first trips abroad will be to Brussels (1 March) and Moscow (5 March). Tymoshenko withdrew her court challenge but, as she did, claimed the court was biased and insisted that she did not recognise Yanukovych as President. Her party (modestly named the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc) boycotted Yanukovych’s address. So, the question for the Ukrainian political system is whether Yanukovych’s party can put together a coalition and oust her as PM or whether we will have another period of the (same) PM opposing everything a (different) President does. Amusingly, Berezovskiy has excoriated the Ukrainian people for their vote: many suspect that he was one of the people behind the “Orange Revolution”.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

MEDVEDEV PROGRAM. Medvedev’s (ie The Team’s) program for the first year was derailed by two unexpected events: the international financial crisis and Saakashvili’s invasion of South Ossetia. Nonetheless, we do have an idea of what he (ie The Team) has in mind. While not very much has happened, there is talk of selling off a number of state-owned companies and many speeches about the problem of corruption. Overtures to, if not the opposition, at least non-Kremlinocentric opinion and, many many references to modernisation: “perhaps the most important topic on our agenda, namely the modernisation of our economy. The modernisation of Russia’s economy must be based on new technologies, innovation and the radical restructuring of the country’s internal economic structure.” Medvedev spends a lot of his time exhorting people and talking about the big strategic picture (for example, to energy sector executives on Friday). Thus far, not that much legislation has hit the street, but it is coming (education, police, quality control, banking).

THE NEW BIG MIS-QUOTATION. So far Medvedev has been spared the selective and false quotations that were the foundation of so many think-pieces about Putin. But it’s happened at last. A breathless piece (JRL/2010/29/25) quotes Medvedev saying about Saakashvili “If you, as a president, did something that you must be held accountable for, you will, without a doubt, face consequences”; later author calls this an “ominous forecast” showing the “Kremlin’s malevolent plans for Georgia”. Here’s what Medvedev actually said:” So if you have done something, especially as President, for which you must answer, you have to take responsibility sooner or later. What kind of responsibility? I think that first and foremost Mr Saakashvili should answer to his own people, since he plunged them into war, condemned them to great suffering, and in the final analysis all this led to the collapse of his country.” Much the same opinion, in fact, as that of Saakashvili’s former Foreign and Defence Ministers (not that such propaganda pieces ever mention the opinions that so many people who worked with Saakashvili have of him). I wonder if this will go the rounds like Putin’s so-called remark to Bush that Ukraine wasn’t really a country; a “quotation” for which no one seems to have been able to find the original.

ANOTHER FOREIGN WEAPONS PURCHASE. Curved barrel small arms from Israel for special forces.

POKLONNAYA GORA. The war memorial complex in Moscow was supposed to have a memorial structure for each of Russia’s four “recognised” religions. The church, mosque and synagogue are complete and land has just been granted for a Buddhist temple.

DEMOGRAPHICS. The government programs continue to chew away at the problem with increases in the birth rate and reductions in the death rate, including improvement in infant mortality. (Figures as of 3rd quarter 2009). It is expected, taking immigration into account, that Russia’s population will have grown slightly in 2009.

NORTH CAUCASUS. More evidence for my hypothesis that the jihadists in the North Caucasus should have laid low this winter: in a battle in Ingushetia, security forces claim to have killed a number of them.

HISTORY WARS. The Polish government has joined a class action suit to sue Moscow for the Katyn Massacre. The cynic would say that Russia now has money and people want some of it. Sue Jughashvili and Beria I say.

UKRAINE. Tymoshenko continues to refuse to accept the election results (she is quoted as saying she will “never” accept Yanukovych as the winner) and her team has presented evidence to the Supreme Administrative Court claiming a million false votes were counted. The court has suspended the election results until it considers the evidence tomorrow. Given that practically everyone else has accepted the results as legitimate, it is unclear what she hopes to achieve. Her party has 30% of the seats in the Rada but she can’t be gaining support by her actions. More paralysis for Ukraine.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

MILITARY DOCTRINE. On Friday Medvedev signed off on the latest military doctrine (officially the third after 1993 and 2000). I don’t see anything very different from its predecessors: NATO expansion, terrorism, nuclear weapons will be used if we think we have to. (The last seems to be hailed as a new development whenever it appears: in 2010 or 1999; but it’s every nuclear power’s actual policy). Perhaps there’s a bit more emphasis on modernisation of the Armed Forces and their equipment as a consequence of deficiencies discovered in the Ossetia war. I must confess, I never understand what these documents are supposed to do: large sections are simply a list of the obvious. For example: “36. The main tasks of military planning are” a, b, c, d, e, f; all of which could be summarised as “to plan for eventualities”. But they must serve some planning or authorisation purpose in the Russian bureaucratic structure. A calm and thoughtful assessment here.

TROUBLE IN PARADISE. It’s a cliché in certain circles that Russia has “annexed” Abkhazia. Apart from the fact that this is not formally true, all my sources indicate that Abkhazia seriously believes it can be an independent country: it would not be the smallest in the world. But, grateful as Abkhazians may be for Russia’s protection against Georgia, and economically dependent on it as they now are, they are not an appendage of Moscow (see 2004 election, for example). As an example we have a problem over the alleged seizure of Russian-owned real estate in Abkhazia. This will no doubt be settled amicably but it is a small indication of divergent interests.

MISTRAL. It is reported that Paris has agreed to sell Moscow at least one Mistral-class amphibious assault ship and possibly three more. Moscow is reported to be still considering doing so. There is a considerable lobby in Russia that would insist that it can make everything itself. More of the post-Ossetia war wakeup in France.

CORRUPTION. On Monday it was announced that 19 traffic police had been arrested in Astrakhan on bribery charges. Of course, arresting traffic police on corruption charges is shooting fish in a barrel and has little to do with the real corruption problem but it’s at least a nibble at a tiny corner of it.

NATO. NATO continues its voyage of discovery of things it ought to have known before with the Secretary General intimating in Munich that Russia might join the NATO operation in Afghanistan (rather unlikely, it would seem). I remember some of our delegates, returning from the Munich conference of February 2001, mocking Ivanov’s assertion that “Russia, a front-line warrior fighting international terrorism in Chechnya and Central Asia is saving the civilized world of the terrorist plague”; melodramatic, perhaps, but not wrong.

NORTH CAUCASUS. In past years, fighters in the North Caucasus lay low during the winter; which, given the severity of conditions there, was understandable. This winter, however, they have carried out a number of attacks. This, however, does not appear to have been a wise thing: it appears to me that the security forces have had more successes than they have. Given the transport advantages – helicopters and so forth – of the security forces this is, perhaps, not surprising.

UKRAINE. The latest results show a slight Yanukovych win, high turnout and a regional division: in short, what opinion polls predicted. Tymoshenko has not conceded and it’s not clear just what she’s doing; some of her people are claiming fraud. With the approval of Western outside observers it will be politically difficult to challenge the results.

WHAT HAPPENED IN UKRAINE. To my mind it is rather easy to explain. There have been a lot of opinion polls in Ukraine over the past years and, while one can object to this or that poll result, the agreement among them has been very strong. And, one has to go with opinion polls, if they’re there and they’re good: otherwise it’s just opinion and blather. What the polls show is that there has never been more than 20-25% support for joining NATO and that 70-80% of Ukrainians want to have good relations with Russia. A policy – Yushchenko’s – that pandered to the 20-25% and ignored the 70-80% was certain to fail. And Yushchenko’s friends and supporters in the West were remarkably otiose not to realise that. On the other hand, for Yanukovych to play to the 70-80% and ignore the 20-25%, while not as politically suicidal as the reverse, will not succeed either. The only rational – and politically viable – course for a Ukrainian leader is a via media. Will Yanukovych be wise enough to behave accordingly? First indications – an interview with CNN – are promising. And, if all that is out of the way, he can try to tackle Ukraine’s real problems.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)

OVER-CENTRALISATION. I have long thought that Putin, probably as a result of his fear that Russia would break up, over-centralised control (From his first phone-in in 2000: “The ‘power component’ in this country has become weakened and everything went tumbling down”.). One of Medvedev’s problems, therefore, is to reduce this centralisation: his goal of “modernisation” is impossible if all decisions are made at the centre. Yesterday, the Institute of Contemporary Development, with which Medvedev is associated, issued its report on what should be done. In brief, it calls for a general loosening of the political and command system of the country and a number of changes; many reverse decisions Putin made when he was President and mark somewhat of a return to the Yeltsin period. No doubt the Kommentariat will go into a frenzy of speculation about a struggle between the two Duumvirs, but I believe that this is all part of the next stage of the Team’s Plan. The report is probably to be seen as a contribution to the discussion. We will see what happens.

MCDONALDS. Some years ago I was asked at a conference what I thought to be the best thing that Canada had done for Russia: I answered McDonalds, to the surprise of the assembled policy wonks and academics. Not everyone is aware that it was the Canadian branch of the company, and the determination of its Chairman, George Cohon, which made it happen. Snooty people can sniff all they want, but food was in short supply then in Russia and the McDonalds restaurant on Pushkin Square never turned anyone away. And, important then: clean toilets. And everything was priced in rubles. Since then McDonalds has expanded all over Russia. It has stayed the course through crises; it invested its earnings back into Russia; it makes most of its product in Russia thereby forcing its standards on suppliers; it virtually introduced a real service culture to the country; it has been a school for management; it has inspired many Russian imitators. On Sunday it celebrated the twentieth anniversary of opening.

GDP. On Monday RosStat reported that Russia’s GDP had declined 7.9% in 2009; the good news was that a decline of 8.5% had been projected.

AEROFLOT. Apparently abandoning an idea to create a large regional air carrier, Putin announced that Aeroflot would take over a number of regional carriers. The stated reason is to improve service and safety as many of the “babyflots” that came into existence in the 1990s are in trouble. Reminiscent of the creation of the Canadian National Railway out of bankrupt lines in the 1920s.

PEOPLE POWER. There was a large protest by several thousand people in Kaliningrad on Sunday over some tax increases. This has stirred some alarm locally and at the centre as people scurry there. A number of things appear to have coalesced to cause the protest and, for once, all the opposition parties got together to organise it. Much of the anger seems to be aimed at the Governor, Georgiy Boos. It remains to be seen whether this is anything more than a local grievance (vide the protests in Vladivostok last year) or has wider implications.

“NORWAY SPIRAL”. Remember the lights over Norway last December? This analysis makes interesting reading. The author suggests that the Bulava failures may be a cover for the (successful) testing of something else.

NORTH CAUCASUS. Security forces claim to have killed one of the original jihadists who came to the North Caucasus in the first Chechen war. He is Mohamad Shaaban, an Egyptian, and is described as having arrived in Chechnya in 1992 and, together with Khattab, organised the “North Caucasus branch of al-Qaeda”.

OIL AND BELARUS. Moscow and Minsk signed an agreement last week on supplies and transit and the problem seems to be now over. By the way, those who think that Ukraine’s future is to be under the Russian boot might profit from studying Minsk-Moscow relations over the years.

UKRAINIAN ELECTION. A change has been made to the election rules which Tymoshenko claims could lead to cheating against her (mind you, the argument for making the change was to prevent her side from cheating). President Yushchenko has signed off on the change. Some pundits opine that there is a below-the-surface alliance between Yushchenko and Yanukovych. Meanwhile, Tymoshenko threatens to call her people onto the streets if she doesn’t like the result (bet they don’t show up). Polls indicate a narrow win by Yanukovych on Sunday. Unity seems as far away as ever.

IRAN. Is Teheran about to reverse its position on the uranium enrichment proposal? Who knows?

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada (see http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com/)