Remember this from 2023? “Neither NATO nor NATO Allies are party to the conflict.” Or this? “In response, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin emphasized Thursday that U.S. is not at war with Russia”. How about this from 2024? “NATO is not at war with Russia and is not party to the war Russia is waging on Ukraine.” How many times did you hear “NATO is not a party to the conflict”? Hundreds. Why NATO itself officially told us that to say “NATO is at war with Russia in Ukraine” was “Russian disinformation”.

Well, fuhgeddaboudit it! While you were sleeping, disinformation became information and there’s a new Party Line now. And here it is. “Key Takeaways From America’s Secret Military Partnership With Ukraine: An investigation by The New York Times has revealed that America was woven into the war far more than previously known.“

Of course, as Larry Johnson has pointed out, the real purpose of this propaganda shift is the underbussing of the Ukraine disaster.

I can summarize the massive story in one sentence — Ukraine would have destroyed the weak, incompetent Russians if only the Ukrainian generals had followed the guidance from the US military. If you’re looking for a signal that the war in Ukraine is on its last legs, this article is it. This is a ridiculous attempt to burnish the image of the Pentagon and US European Command as strategic and tactical geniuses who could have beaten the Russians if only those damn Ukrainians had followed their advice.

It’s the signal for the sheep to start bleating a new tune (remember the scene in Nineteen Eighty-Four when, right in the middle of Hate Week, the Enemy becomes the Ally? Creepy how much Orwell foresaw, isn’t it?) As “Simplicius” remarks: “Of course, most of it is news only to the NPCs who’ve subsisted on main courses of MSM consumption.”

The real news is not what they say; it’s

that they say it.

I didn’t bother to read the whole thing but I saw enough to recognise a familiar tune. One of the principal themes of my writings in this site is that Washington and the West generally have very poor knowledge of Russia (here I am in 2018). Most of it is based on unexamined assumptions complacently adhered to. And here we see it again. Let’s start a short, victorious war. And we know that it will be short and victorious because Russia’s economy is weak and sanctions will collapse it in a couple of months; Putin’s underbosses will whack him out if we can make them hurt; their weapons are ancient junk; their generals are unimaginative clods; their tactics are inept; their soldiers are poorly trained dregs. We. on the other hand, are the greatest warriors with the best generals and the best weapons ever.

My very favourite example of this ill-informed self-satisfied overconfidence all in one go from a British source from 2023 just before the big offensive:

As a former tank commander, I can say one thing for certain: Putin’s demoralised conscripts are utterly unprepared for the shock action now hitting their lines. Ukrainian armoured formations are beginning to meet Russian forces in battle, and they are going to pulverise Russia’s defensive lines. I am confident for one simple reason: Ukraine will follow the Western ideology of manoeuvre warfare in a combined arms context, while the Russians will follow Soviet doctrine, relying on attrition and numbers. The Russians will find that the armour of Western tanks is far more resilient than flesh and bone, they will die in great numbers, and they will lose.

Whatever else it may be, war is the ultimate reality test and, when the confident assurance fades, step by step, the sunk cost fallacy will drag the West deeper into the bog. Babbling about Russia’s dependence on refrigerators is replaced by they’re out-producing us four-to-one. The years roll by and it’s suddenly time to get out however you can. Just like Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. And, like those, no lessons will be learned because we won or at least we would have if only the wind hadn’t blown so hard or our allies weren’t so useless or something else beyond our control. (Do they read Clausewitz at West Point? Ever heard of the Correlation of Forces? How about Sun Tzu’s famous quotation about knowledge?)

Nothing short of genius can account for losing so consistently given the enormous resources available to American forces. In light of this very low level of military competence, maybe wars are not our best choice of hobby.

As the toilers at MiniTrue re-write and the Memory Hole burns, we wait for the next Russian disinformation to suddenly turn into information. Lots of NATO troops in Ukraine? “The Revolution of Dignity” was Made in America? NATO provoked the war? Every chance to settle the problem peacefully was torpedoed by Washington or London? Ukraine is full of Galician nazis actually making the big decisions? Bucha was a fake? So was the maternity hospital?

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(By the way, as most of you already knew, because propaganda is about impressions not details, there’s no penalty for failed predictions and the British guy quoted above is still at it: “Whisper it, but the tide might just be turning against Putin:The American president has lost patience with the Russian leader – so has his own people… within Russia’s top brass, the knives are out for their leader”. Evidence? A mis-interpretation, two false “facts” and the usual inflated casualty figures.)